Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report

Published 02 December 2013

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Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report

Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing volumes across all freight modes with some of them recovering to pre-downturn levels, 2014 will signal further growth for Kazakhstan's freight transport.

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 7.15% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 8.69% in 2013.

The most potential for growth and development in Kazakhstan's freight transport sector remains in the country's rail freight market. The country's exports are concentrated on the freighting of bulk products namely oil and grain. The country's rail freight sector has developed to cater for these needs and will continue to do so in the longer term, as both commodities look set to continue dominating Kazakhstan's trade sector.

Rail freight is also in high demand as Kazakhstan develops its role as a conduit for freight to be shipped by land between Asia and Europe. The country is playing a role in the development of the Asia-Europe landbridge, a route linking China to Europe via rail.

Rail freight is not the only land-based freight mode to be seeking to gain exposure to Kazakhstan's position as a conduit for trade from east to west. The Western Europe-Western China highway project is being developed to link Asia-Europe via road and the project is set to benefit Kazakhstan's road freight sector. Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 11% in 2014.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.9%

  • 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 6.5%

  • 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 10.5%

  • 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 8.4%

  • 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 7.2%.

Key Industry Trends

Logistics Hub Potential Gets DP World Backing- Kazakhstan's logistic credentials were further bolstered in April 2013 with global port operator DP World announcing its interest in the port of Aktau and logistics...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Kazakhstan Freight Transport SWOT
7
Industry Trends And Developments
8
Rail Freight
8
Maritime
10
Road Freight
11
Air Freight
11
Market Overview
13
Industry Forecast
17
Air Freight: In Recovery
17
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
17
Rail Freight: Upside Risk To Bullish Forecasts
18
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
19
Road Freight: Potential Asia-Europe Link Role Beckons
19
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
20
Inland Waterway: Growth Potential
20
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
22
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
23
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
23
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
24
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
25
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
29
Political Outlook
34
Domestic Politics
34
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
40
Company Profiles
41
Kaztransservis (KTC)
41
Air Astana Cargo
43
Kazmortransflot
46
Country Snapshot
48
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
BMI Methodology
52
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
52
Transport Industry
52
Sources
53

The Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Kazakhstan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Kazakhstani freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc