Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

Published 13 October 2014

  • 161 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Uzbekistan became the fifth and final Central Asian market to receive 4G LTE this quarter, as Beeline ( VimpelCom ) commercially launched the service in September 2014 . While it represents an important development for the region, we are largely bearish on the technology's short-term future , as the prohibitive cost will keep it out of reach of most subscribers, while 3G remains underdeveloped. Internet costs are some of the highest in the world, due to the landlocked nature of the region and government motivations to censor content. While t here is strong potential in the Central Asia telecoms industry, 4G will not see a significant uptake over our five year forecast period. Instead, we believe Beeline is positioning itself ahead of the return of MTS to the market later in 2014, after the latter had its licence revoked by the government in 2012. Government interference in the sector remains the key risk in the telecoms industry, however, and we tend to believe that this high risk outweighs the potential rewards at the time.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Kazakhstan
11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2011-2018)
11
Mobile
11
Fixed Line
13
Broadband
13
Kyrgyzstan
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2011-2018)
15
Mobile
15
Fixed Line
16
Broadband
17
Tajikistan
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tajikistan 2011-2018)
19
Mobile
19
Fixed Line
20
Broadband
21
Turkmenistan
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2011-2018)
23
Mobile
23
Fixed Line
24
Broadband
24
Uzbekistan
26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2011-2018)
26
Fixed Line
27
Broadband
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Central and Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: CEE Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q314
32
Market Overview
34
Kazakhstan
34
Mobile
34
Table: Kazakhstan
34
Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, March 2014
39
Fixed Line
45
Internet/Broadband
47
Pay-TV
52
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
54
Kyrgyzstan
60
Mobile
60
Table: Kyrgystan In Regional Perspective
60
Mobile
61
Market Share And Net Additions
62
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, March 2014
65
Fixed Line
73
Internet/Broadband
75
Tajikistan
79
Mobile
79
Table: Tajikistan
79
Mobile Growth
79
Market Share And Net Additions
81
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, March 2014
83
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
83
Fixed Line
86
Internet/Broadband
86
Turkmenistan
88
Mobile
88
Table: Turkmenistan
88
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, March 2014
90
Fixed Line
98
Internet/Broadband
98
Uzbekistan
100
Table: Uzbekistan
100
Mobile
100
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, March 2014
105
Fixed Line
112
Broadband
113
Regulatory Development
115
Regulatory Overview
115
Kazakhstan
115
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
115
Kyrgyzstan
118
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities
118
Tajikistan
120
Table: Tajikistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
120
Turkmenistan
123
Table: Turkmenistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
123
Uzbekistan
126
Table: Uzbekistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
126
Competitive Landscape
130
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector
130
Company Profile
131
Kazakhtelecom
131
Kyrgyztelecom
138
Tajiktelecom
143
Uzbektelecom
146
Regional Overview
150
Table: Ericsson Quarterly And Annual Results By Segment (SEKbn)
151
Demographic Forecast
154
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
155
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
156
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
157
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
157
Glossary
158
Table: Glossary Of Terms
158
Methodology
160
Industry Forecast Methodology
160
Sources
161
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
162
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
163
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
164

The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc