Business Monitor International


Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

Published 07 April 2014

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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The Central Asia region has seen a number of 4G LTE launches since April 2014, including NurTelecom in Kyrgyzstan, Altyn Asyr in Turkmenistan and Tcell in Tajikistan. MPs in Kazakhstan have also submitted a recommendation that LTE licences should be issued to rival companies in the market to sole licensee Altel , In order to encourage competition. We generally expect growth for this more expensive service and technology will be slow in the region, given low purchasing power and low uptake of 3G. However, it is certainly a positive development for the region and demonstrates that companies are willing to continue their investment strategies, hoping to tap into Central Asia's vast telecoms potential. Government interference in the sector remains the key risk in the telecoms industry, however, and we tend to believe that this high risk outweighs the potential rewards at the time.

Key Data

  • Mobile operators' revenue in Kyrgyzstan increased by 18.5% to KGS25.06bn (USD484.8mn) in 2013. This was despite a USD1 drop in ARPU from USD4 to USD3 during 2013,

  • Turkmenistan's state-owned mobile operator Altyn-Asyr has reported that its subscriber base has passed 3.7mn in 2013. This was up from 3mn in 2012 as a result of the company's network covering almost the entire area of Turkmenistan.

  • Altel's LTE subscription base has risen from 30,000 connections in April 2013, to 110,000 by the end of December 2013.

  • Kazakhstan's incumbent operator Kazakhtelecom posted revenues of KZT190.7bn (USD1.2bn) in 2013, up from KZT175.8bn (USD1.1bn) in 2012. However, the operator's net profit declined from KZT20bn (USD125.86mn) in 2012 to KZT19.7bn (USD123.97mn) in 2013. Its wholly owned mobile subsidiary Altel reported a 4G LTE subscriber base of 110,000 by end-2013. Altel's network was expanded to Karaganda, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Shymkent, Aktobe, Atyrau and Aktau in December 2013, following its launch in Astana and Almaty in December 2012. 

Key Trends...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Kazakhstan
11
Table: Kazakhstan - Telecoms Market Historical Data & Forecast
11
Mobile
11
Fixed Line
13
Broadband
13
Kyrgyzstan
15
Table: Telecoms Market Historical Data & Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Fixed Line
16
Broadband
16
Tajikistan
18
Table: Telecoms Market Historical Data & Forecast
18
Mobile
18
Fixed Line
19
Broadband
19
Turkmenistan
21
Table: Telecoms Market Historical Data & Forecast
21
Mobile
21
Fixed Line
22
Broadband
22
Uzbekistan
24
Table: Telecoms Market Historical Data & Forecast
24
Fixed Line
25
Broadband
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Central Asia Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
29
Market Overview
30
Kazakhstan
30
Mobile
30
Table: Kazakhstan
30
Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, December 2012
34
Fixed Line
38
Internet/Broadband
40
Kyrgyzstan
45
Mobile
45
Table: Kyrgystan In Regional Perspective
45
Mobile
46
Market Share And Net Additions
47
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, December 2012
49
Fixed Line
54
Internet/Broadband
55
Tajikistan
58
Mobile
58
Table: Tajikistan
58
Mobile Growth
59
Market Share And Net Additions
60
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, December 2012
62
Usage (MOU/ARPU)
62
Fixed Line
65
Internet/Broadband
65
Turkmenistan
68
Mobile
68
Table: Turkmenistan
68
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, December 2012
71
Fixed Line
76
Internet/Broadband
76
Uzbekistan
78
Table: Uzbekistan
78
Mobile
78
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, December 2012
83
Fixed Line
89
Broadband
90
Regulatory Development
95
Kazakhstan
95
Table: Kazakhstan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
95
Kyrgyzstan
98
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities
98
Tajikistan
100
Table: Tajikistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
100
Turkmenistan
103
Table: Turkmenistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
103
Uzbekistan
106
Table: Uzbekistan - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
106
Competitive Landscape
110
Table: Key Players - Central Asia Telecoms Sector
110
Company Profile
111
Kazakhtelecom
111
Kyrgyztelecom
118
Tajiktelecom
123
Uzbektelecom
126
Regional Overview
131
Alcatel Lucent
131
Table: Alcatel-Lucent: Quarterly Breakdowns Of Revenue By Segment, 2011-2012 (EURmn)
131
Under Pressure, Despite Carriers' Need For More Bandwidth
134
Glossary
137
Table: Glossary Of Terms
137
Methodology
139
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
139
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
140
Table: Ratings Indicators
141
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
142

The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc