Business Monitor International

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report

Published 08 May 2014

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report

BMI believes that Kazakhstan will spend up to US$2.8bn in 2014 on defence. Up to 2018, we expect the country to spend on average US$3.8bn on defence. We expect that the defence budget will rise to US$3.2bn in 2015, and then again to US$3.6bn by 2016. The final two years of the forecast period will see Kazakhstan spending US$4.0bn and US$4.4bn on defence in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Kazakhstan has broadly maintained a defence trade balance in its favour since the commencement of the decade. We do not expect this situation to change in the coming years and, therefore, we expect Kazakhstan to continue exporting on average US$6.4mn more than it imports each year. Kazakhstan makes modest defence exports annually. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Kazakhstan inherited some significant components of the Soviet defence industrial complex. Not least of these is a significant aircraft manufacturing and export base, most notably focusing on the production of strategic freighters and also military rotorcraft. We expect that these platforms will continue to prove popular export items for Kazakhstan in the coming years. Kazakhstan is performing some small-scale imports of military equipment and services from third-party suppliers. The government is now also making some small-scale imports of equipment from Western suppliers, while commencing the manufacture of Western equipment via joint ventures established with Western suppliers.

We have given Kazakhstan an overall security rating of 74 for Q314. Kazakhstan has scored an average overall security risk rating of 77 for the period February 2009 up to Q314. We believe, as the discussion below will illustrate, that Kazakhstan retains a low risk of becoming involved in a major international conflict. Similarly, we note that the country has a low risk of suffering a major terrorist attack. That said, the same low level of risk cannot be noted as regards susceptibility to criminal activity which we...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Kazakhstan And Central Asia Defence SWOT
Kazakhstan And Central Asia Security SWOT
Industry Forecast
Defence Budget
Table: Defence Expenditure
Armed Forces
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Trade
Table: Defence Trade Balance (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Risk Rewards
Market Overview
Defence Market Overview
Armed Forces
Domestic Defence Industries
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Company Profile
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
Global Industry Overview
Global Political Outlook
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani defence and security market.
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    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc