BMI View: The outlook for Jordan's telecoms market received a welcome boost this quarter, after it emerged that Zain had agreed to acquire 4G spectrum and a licence from the government. Previously, the three mobile operators had not bid in a September 2013 auction, believing that the market was not ready for 4G and citing increased pressure on finances from heightened telecoms taxes . Zain's decision, therefore, represents an upside risk to BMI 's 3G/4G growth forecast for Jordan . While Orange and Umniah have reportedly expressed interest in also acquiring 4G licences, the current financial pressures that these operators are facing, suggest they have limited capacity and willingness to invest in frequency spectrum on top of rolling out next generation networks. This is particularly true of Orange, which criticised the decision of the TRC to charge the operator JOD156.4mn (USD220.11mn) for renewal of its 2G licence. A further JOD142mn (USD200mn) would be needed to obtain 4G spectrum and licences for Orange, and therefore, it appears that Zain will gain a first mover advantage in the 4G market. The financial pressures on the Jordanian operators do not look set to ease up this year, and we see this as a significant risk to investors in the market.
Jordan's mobile market grew by 12.3% in 2013, although this masks a contraction of 0.6% in Q413.
Mobile ARPU continued its downward trend, with BMI estimating a 17.7% y-o-y decline in FY13.
The fixed-line sector also contracted in FY13, with the number of subscriptions shrinking by 5% during that period.
The internet sector remains the strongest performing sector in the telecoms market, following an impressive growth of 51.4% in total subscriptions during FY13.
Jordan stayed in 11 th position in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings table for Middle East And North Africa in the Q314 update, although its overall score improved from 45.1 to 46.5 q-o-q. Jordan...
The Jordan Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Jordan's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Jordan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Jordan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Jordan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Jordanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Jordan's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Jordan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.