Heightened risk from the situation in Syria, coupled with a weak economic outlook, will continue to dampen autos demand in the Levant region over the course of 2015. Of the three countries covered in this report, we believe that it is Jordan that has the strongest near-term growth potential, where we are targeting 6.7% growth in new vehicle sales over 2015, to 18,855 units. However, Lebanon will remain the largest regional market overall, on 42,823 units, up by 4.1% during 2015.
Backing up our optimistic outlook on the evolution of new vehicle sales in Jordan is our Country Risk team's belief that economic activity will strengthen from 2015 onward, due to robust public investment and gradual improvements in domestic demand. BMI forecasts real GDP growth to stand at 2.9% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015, compared to an annual average of just 2.6% between 2010 and 2013.
In particular, we expect construction activity and the services sectors to remain the bulwarks of economic growth throughout 2015, with the former backed by development grants from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and multilateral donors such as the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. This could help boost demand for HCVs and related construction equipment in particular.
On the other hand, we are guarded over the prospects for export growth and expect the performance of the industrial sector to remain subdued over the coming quarters. Iraq accounted for 18% of total Jordanian goods exports in 2013 - the largest share - and its troubles are set to affect important segments of Jordan's industrial base and agricultural sector. This could impact on sales within the LCV segment.
A more buoyant outlook for private consumption could also indicate a more constructive backdrop for demand for passenger cars, including SUVs. BMI is projecting real private consumption growth of 3.0% in 2014, rising to 4.0% in 2015, after an average of just 1.9% over 2009-2012. Encouragingly for the auto...
The Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Jordan, Syria, Lebanon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.