Business Monitor International


Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report

Published 10 June 2014

  • 89 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report

Heightened risk from the situation in Syria, coupled with a weak economic outlook, will continue to dampen autos demand in the Levant region. Of the three countries covered in this report, it is the smallest market (Jordan) that has the strongest near-term growth potential In 2014, BMI is targeting 5.8% growth in new vehicle sales rising to 6.7% and 6.8% growth across 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Backing up our cautiously optimistic outlook on the evolution of new vehicle sales in Jordan is our Country Risk team's belief that economic activity will strengthen from 2015 onward, due to robust public investment and gradual improvements in domestic demand. BMI forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.3% in 2014 and 4.1% in 2015, compared to an annual average of only 2.6% between 2010 and 2013.

Continued progress on public investment projects, financed by development grants from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and multilateral donors, will help to stimulate construction activity. This could lead to increased demand for heavy commercial vehicles and related construction equipment in particular. Overall, we expect the construction and services sectors to remain the main drivers of growth heading into 2015, benefiting respectively from strong public investment and a more positive private consumption outlook.

A more buoyant outlook for private consumption could also indicate a more constructive backdrop for demand for passenger cars, including SUVs. BMI is projecting real private consumption growth of 3.0% in 2014, rising to 4.0% in 2015, after an average of just 1.9% over 2009-2012. Encouragingly for the auto sector, consumer price inflation (CPI) is also falling, down to 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2014, from an annual average of 5.6% in 2013. Lower inflation could provide greater scope for the Central Bank of Jordan to cut interest rates from their current level of 4.25% (for the key rediscount rate). A lower rate environment could also lead to lower...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Political
17
Economic
18
Business Environment
19
Industry Forecast
20
Industry Forecast - Jordan
20
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2012-2018)
20
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2012-2018)
20
New Opportunities
23
Company Developments
23
Industry Forecast - Lebanon
25
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2018)
25
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2018)
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2018)
26
Table: Lebanon Leading Vehicle Distributors
27
Industry Forecast - Syria
28
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Syria 2012-2018)
28
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Economic Activity (Jordan 2009-2018)
34
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Jordan 2009-2018)
37
Economic Outlook
38
Table: Economic Activity (Lebanon 2009-2018)
45
Economic Analysis
45
Table: Economic Activity (Syria 2009-2018)
50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
51
Middle East Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
54
Company Profile
55
Ford Motor
55
Hyundai-Kia
58
Renault
59
Regional Overview
60
Table: MENA Production Investments
61
Global Industry Overview
63
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
63
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
63
Trucks Give North America A Lift
64
India Brings Relief To BRICs
66
Demographic Forecast
68
Demographic Outlook
68
Table: Jordan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: Jordan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: Jordan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: Jordan's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
71
Demographic Forecast
72
Table: Lebanon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
73
Table: Lebanon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
74
Table: Lebanon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
75
Table: Lebanon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
75
Demographic Forecast
76
Table: Syria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
77
Table: Syria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: Syria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: Syria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Methodology
80
Industry Forecasts
80
Sector-Specific Methodology
81
Sources
81
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
82
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
83

The Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Jordan, Syria, Lebanon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc