Business Monitor International


Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report

Published 10 June 2014

  • 89 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report

Heightened risk from the situation in Syria, coupled with a weak economic outlook, will continue to dampen autos demand in the Levant region. Of the three countries covered in this report, it is the smallest market (Jordan) that has the strongest near-term growth potential In 2014, BMI is targeting 5.8% growth in new vehicle sales rising to 6.7% and 6.8% growth across 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Backing up our cautiously optimistic outlook on the evolution of new vehicle sales in Jordan is our Country Risk team's belief that economic activity will strengthen from 2015 onward, due to robust public investment and gradual improvements in domestic demand. BMI forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.3% in 2014 and 4.1% in 2015, compared to an annual average of only 2.6% between 2010 and 2013.

Continued progress on public investment projects, financed by development grants from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and multilateral donors, will help to stimulate construction activity. This could lead to increased demand for heavy commercial vehicles and related construction equipment in particular. Overall, we expect the construction and services sectors to remain the main drivers of growth heading into 2015, benefiting respectively from strong public investment and a more positive private consumption outlook.

A more buoyant outlook for private consumption could also indicate a more constructive backdrop for demand for passenger cars, including SUVs. BMI is projecting real private consumption growth of 3.0% in 2014, rising to 4.0% in 2015, after an average of just 1.9% over 2009-2012. Encouragingly for the auto sector, consumer price inflation (CPI) is also falling, down to 3.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2014, from an annual average of 5.6% in 2013. Lower inflation could provide greater scope for the Central Bank of Jordan to cut interest rates from their current level of 4.25% (for the key rediscount rate). A lower rate environment could also lead to lower...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Political
15
Economic
16
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
18
Industry Forecast - Jordan
18
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2012-2018)
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2012-2018)
18
New Opportunities
20
Company Developments
21
Industry Forecast - Lebanon
22
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2018)
22
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2018)
22
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2012-2018)
23
Table: Lebanon Leading Vehicle Distributors
26
Industry Forecast - Syria
26
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Syria 2012-2018)
26
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Table: Jordan - Economic Activity
37
Economic Outlook
37
Table: Lebanon - Economic Activity
47
Economic Analysis
47
Table: Syria - Economic Activity
53
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
54
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings- Middle East And North Africa Autos
57
Company Profile
58
Company News Alert
58
Hyundai-Kia
61
Renault
62
Regional Overview
63
Industry Trend Analysis
63
Global Industry Overview
66
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
66
European Growth Gathers Momentum
66
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
68
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
69
Demographic Forecast
72
Demographic Outlook
72
Table: Jordan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
73
Table: Jordan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
74
Table: Jordan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
75
Table: Jordan's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
75
Demographic Forecast
76
Table: Lebanon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
77
Table: Lebanon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: Lebanon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: Lebanon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Demographic Forecast
80
Table: Syria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
81
Table: Syria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
82
Table: Syria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
83
Table: Syria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
83
Methodology
84
Industry Forecasts
84
Sector-Specific Methodology
85
Sources
85
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
86
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
87

The Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Jordan, Lebanon and Syria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Jordan, Syria, Lebanon to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Jordanian, Syrian, Lebanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc