Business Monitor International


Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Business Forecast Report

Published 24 September 2014

  • 57 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • The formation of a Palestinian unity government in June 2014 marks a symbolic end to the long-running dispute between the rival Fatah and Hamas factions ruling the West Bank and Gaza Strip respectively. However, the reconciliation agreement will face major difficulties, as ideological differences between the two parties remain stark. Maintaining a central government over two geographically separate regions will be a massive challenge. The unity government will struggle to improve the Palestinian territories' lacklustre economic outlook.

  • We have revised downward our real GDP growth forecasts for the Palestinian territories, following Israel's offensive in Gaza over the summer of 2014. The fighting has severely damaged Gaza's infrastructure and industrial base, and we expect the Palestinian unity government to struggle with the reconstruction of the Strip. We forecast the West Bank and Gaza to contract by 0.7% this year in real terms, before returning to limited growth of 2.3% in 2015.

  • Israeli-Palestinian peace talks resumed in August 2013, but failed to progress past their April 2014 deadline. We retain our view that despite efforts by US Secretary of State John Kerry, the current political configuration in Israel, combined with the increasing fragmentation of the Palestinian Authority, will hinder any progress in negotiations.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Any sustained punitive economic measures imposed by Israel that further constrain exports and imports, or disrupt governmental revenue flows, would pose downside risks to our forecasts for growth and the government budget.

  • Popular discontent, either with Israel or the lack of progress among Fatah and Hamas, could lead to social unrest and thereby undermine the growth prospects of the West Bank and Gaza, and weigh on the territories' political risk profile.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (West Bank and Gaza 2012-2015)
Indicator 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f
National...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary - Jordan
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Domestic Politics
14
Jordan And Saudi Arabia Threatened By IS's Success
Jordan And Saudi Arabia Threatened By IS's Success
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
14
Table: LONG-TERM SCENARIOS for iraq
16
Long-Term Political Outlook
17
Further Reform On The Horizon-
Further Reform On The Horizon-
Chapter 1
21
SWOT Analysis
21
Economic Activity
22
Iraq Crisis To Delay Jordanian Economic Recovery
Iraq Crisis To Delay Jordanian Economic Recovery
Table: Economic Activity
22
Economic Policy
25
Israeli Deal: Economic Necessity, Political Gamble
Israeli Deal: Economic Necessity, Political Gamble
Balance Of Payments
26
Iraqi Conflict To Stymie Jordanian Exports
Iraqi Conflict To Stymie Jordanian Exports
Table: Current Account
26
Banking Sector
28
Weak Credit Growth Until 2015
Weak Credit Growth Until 2015
Regional Foreign Direct Investment
30
Outperformers And Laggards
Outperformers And Laggards
Chapter 1
35
The Jordanian Economy To 2023
35
Exports Driving Long-Term Growth
Exports Driving Long-Term Growth
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Chapter 1
37
SWOT Analysis
37
Executive Summary - West Bank & Gaza
39
Chapter 2
41
SWOT Analysis
41
Domestic Politics
42
Moderate Palestinian Camp To Remain Under Pressure
Moderate Palestinian Camp To Remain Under Pressure
Table: TERMS OF CEASEFIRE
42
Long-Term Political Outlook
43
Monumental Obstacles To Statehood
Monumental Obstacles To Statehood
Chapter 2
47
SWOT Analysis
47
Economic Activity
48
No Rapid Recovery After Gaza Conflict
No Rapid Recovery After Gaza Conflict
Table: Economic Activity
48
Chapter 2
51
West Bank And Gaza Economy To 2023
51
Long-Term Growth Outlook Far Below Potential
Long-Term Growth Outlook Far Below Potential
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
51
Chapter 2
55
SWOT Analysis
55
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions
57
Global Outlook
57
Eurozone Downgrade On Poor Q214
57
Table: Global Assumptions
57
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %
58
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
58
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
59

The Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Jordan, West Bank and Gaza economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Jordan, West Bank and Gaza through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Jordan and the West Bank & Gaza Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Jordan, West Bank and Gaza and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Jordan, West Bank and Gaza, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza over the next 5-years?

BMI's Jordan, West Bank and Gaza country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Jordan, West Bank and Gaza Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Jordan, West Bank and Gaza.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Jordan, West Bank and Gaza, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Jordan, West Bank and Gaza's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express