Business Monitor International


Japan Real Estate Report

Published 11 August 2014

  • 75 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Real Estate Report

BMI View:   Global interest in Japan ' s commercial real estate sector continues to grow with the country fast becoming one of the most sought after locations for real estate investors. 2014 is shaping up to be a more conservative year for the industry as slower economic growth leads to a more conservative business environment.

With a focus on the three principal cities of Tokyo, Yokohama and Osaka, the Q4 2014 Japan Real Estate report covers the property fundamentals of the commercial real estate market rental market and examines the office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country.

A weakening retail market and a slowing economy are the main concerns for Japan's commercial real estate sector over the coming months with the introduction of a new sales tax creating a further drag on demand for commercial real estate space on top of a gradual slow-down in GDP growth.

As such, rental rate growth is set to be predominantly flat over the remainder of 2014 as the real estate sector adapts to a more conservative business environment than the one seen in 2013.

Despite the headwinds on the horizon, we expect Japan to retain its status as a relative safe-haven within the Asian commercial real estate market with Tokyo in particular continuing to enjoy its reputation as one of the most sought after global locations for real estate investment. The capital recorded the third highest sales volume of any city worldwide in 2013, after New York and London with the city witnessing high demand for office space in particular.

The growing Japanese real estate investment trust (J-REIT) market adds further shine to the investment outlook, with the market attracting interest from a number of major global financial players.

Recent Developments:

  • Germany-based Union Investment Real Estate has acquired an office property in central Tokyo for EUR127mn (USD172.23mn) from Alpha Investment Partners. The 53,000-square-foot asset is the latest deal in the Asia...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Office
16
Table: Forecast Office Rents (USD per m2/month), 2014-2015
17
Table: Office Short-Term Net Yield Forecast (%)
17
Table: Office Medium-Term Net Yield Forecast (%)
18
Retail
18
Table: Forecast Retail Rents (USD per m2/month) 2014-2015
18
Table: Retail Short-Term Net Yield Forecast (%)
19
Table: Retail Medium-Term Net Yield Forecast (%)
19
Industrial
19
Table: Forecast Industrial Rental Rates (USD per m2 a month) 2014-2015
20
Table: Industrial Short-Term Net Yield Forecast (%)
20
Table: Forecast Industrial Net Yield, 2011-2018
21
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
22
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Japan 2012-2017)
22
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Japan 2018-2023)
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Asia Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Japan - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Tokyo
43
Yokohama
44
Osaka
44
Office
45
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
45
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
46
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - H213
47
Retail
48
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
48
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
50
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H114
51
Industrial
51
Table: Historic Rents - 2012-2014 (USD per m2/month)
52
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
53
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H114
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Office
55
Retail
57
Industrial
57
REITs
58
Company Profile
59
Kajima Corporation
59
Kumagai Gumi
61
Obayashi Corporation
63
Shimizu Corporation
66
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
71
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
73
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
75
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
76

The Japan Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Japan Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Japan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Japan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc