Business Monitor International


Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 14 November 2014

  • 141 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:  The Japanese pharmaceutical market continues to hold strong rewards for innovative pharmaceutical companies. This is driven by the country's rapidly ageing population, preference for branded medicines and strong public coverage of drug expenditure. However, the cost containment measures by the government including aggressively cutting medicine prices pose a downward risk to the market's long term growth.

Risk/Reward Index

Japan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q115 increased to 78.1 out of the maximum 100 in our newly improved RRR system. This high score makes Japan the most attractive country in comparison with the other 18 key Asia Pacific markets, followed by South Korea (68.6) and Australia (67.0). Japan's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar drug market (market expenditure score of 18.0 out of 20) and large pensionable population (pensionable population score of 8.0 out of 8), but dragged down by a declining pharmaceutical market (sector value growth score of 3.6 out of 12) and a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5). Thus, Japan's ageing population will translate into increased pharmaceutical sales although with relatively low growth prospects over the long term.

BMI Economic View: The monetary stimulus measure employed over the past 18 months appear to have worked their way through the economy to a large extent, and the prospects of a self-sustaining recovery are diminishing. The collapse in wage growth is a particularly telling sign, and we continue to forecast real GDP growth of just 0.9% and 0.8% in 2014 and 2015, versus consensus expectations of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively.

BMI Political View:  Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be prevented from enacting his preferred economic reforms, due to rising opposition from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its New Komeito coalition partner. As with Abe's attempts at fiscal reform, the premier will also find his...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
30
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
34
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
36
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Japan 2012-2018)
36
Other Healthcare Data
37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
38
Macroeconomic Forecasts
39
Economic Analysis
39
Corporate Japan Not Convinced
40
Private Consumption Could Possibly Contract In 2014
41
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Japan Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Rewards
50
Risks
51
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
54
Epidemiology
54
Healthcare Sector
57
Clinical Trials
58
Regulatory Development
61
Regulatory Regime
61
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
64
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
65
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
69
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
69
Competitive Landscape
72
Pharmaceutical Sector
72
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Tokyo Stock Exchange
78
Foreign Generic Industry
78
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
79
Pharmaceutical Retail
81
Company Profile
90
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
90
Astellas
95
Eisai
102
Daiichi Sankyo
109
Mitsubishi Tanabe
115
Sawai Pharmaceutical
118
Pfizer
121
Sanofi
125
Merck & Co
129
Novartis
133
GlaxoSmithKline
138
AstraZeneca
142
Demographic Forecast
146
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
147
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
148
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
149
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
149
Glossary
150
Methodology
152
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
152
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
152
Notes On Methodology
153
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
154
Ratings Overview
155
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
155
Indicator Weightings
156

The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc