Business Monitor International


Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 05 February 2014

  • 141 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Japan's pharmaceutical expenditure forecast has been upgraded marginally on the back of an increase in medical fees. We highlight that its ageing population remains a key driver of increasing demand for pharmaceuticals. From a sub-sector perspective, slow generic drug uptake continues to support the use of patented drugs, while the liberalisation of the over-the-counter medicine sector will also boost pharmaceutical sales. Despite this, the slow-growing economy remains a downside risk to our forecast.

The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) has announced a medical fee revision (effective from April 2014), in consideration of the consumption tax hike. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic revitalisation plan, the deregulation council set up by Abe in January 2013 supported the increase in reimbursement prices, stating that it would improve competitiveness in the domestic industry. Following the announcement, BMI has upgraded its forecast for Japan's pharmaceutical market.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: JPY10,992.8bn (US$112.17bn) in 2013 to JPY11,220.38bn (US$110.00bn) in 2014; +2.1% in local currency terms and -1.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast marginally upgraded from Q 1 1 4 due to a n increase in medical fees , growth in US terms slightly down due to currency fluctuations.

  • Healthcare: JPY45,325.51bn (US$462.51bn) in 2013 to JPY46,836.83bn (US$459.18bn) in 2014; +3.3% in local currency terms and -0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast is higher than in Q 11 4, US growth is now only slightly down due to currency fluctuations.

Risk/Reward Rating

Japan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q214 remains at 74.5 out of the maximum 100 in our newly improved RRR system. This high score makes Japan the most attractive country in comparison with the other 18 key Asia Pacific markets, followed by Australia (67.0) and Taiwan (65.7). Japan's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
28
Table: OTC Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (JPYmn)
34
Other Healthcare Data
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Long-Term Benefits To Tourism Largely Uncertain
37
Construction Realities Unlikely To Mimic Stock Gains
38
Costs To Aggravate Risky Fiscal Situation
41
Infrastructure Potentially Underutilised Given Poor Demographics
42
Raising Gaming, Immigration, Education And Nuclear Issues
43
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
45
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Japan Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Rewards
52
Risks
53
Market Overview
54
Industry Trends And Developments
55
Epidemiology
55
Healthcare Sector
58
Clinical Trials
58
Regulatory Development
60
Regulatory Regime
60
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
63
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
63
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
68
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
68
Competitive Landscape
71
Pharmaceutical Sector
71
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Tokyo Stock Exchange
72
Foreign Generic Industry
73
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
74
Pharmaceutical Retail
75
Company Profile
79
Takeda
79
Astellas
86
Eisai
93
Daiichi Sankyo
98
Mitsubishi Tanabe
104
Sawai Pharmaceutical
107
Pfizer
110
Sanofi
114
Merck & Co
117
Novartis
120
GlaxoSmithKline
124
AstraZeneca
127
Demographic Forecast
130
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
131
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
132
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
133
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
133
Glossary
134
Methodology
136
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
136
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
136
Notes On Methodology
137
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
138
Ratings Overview
139
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
139
Indicator Weightings
140

The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc