Business Monitor International


Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 14 November 2014

  • 155 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:  The Japanese pharmaceutical market continues to hold strong rewards for innovative pharmaceutical companies. This is driven by the country's rapidly ageing population, preference for branded medicines and strong public coverage of drug expenditure. However, the cost containment measures by the government including aggressively cutting medicine prices pose a downward risk to the market's long term growth.

Risk/Reward Index

Japan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q115 increased to 78.1 out of the maximum 100 in our newly improved RRR system. This high score makes Japan the most attractive country in comparison with the other 18 key Asia Pacific markets, followed by South Korea (68.6) and Australia (67.0). Japan's score is boosted by the large multi-billion dollar drug market (market expenditure score of 18.0 out of 20) and large pensionable population (pensionable population score of 8.0 out of 8), but dragged down by a declining pharmaceutical market (sector value growth score of 3.6 out of 12) and a declining population (population growth score of 1.0 out of 5). Thus, Japan's ageing population will translate into increased pharmaceutical sales although with relatively low growth prospects over the long term.

BMI Economic View: The monetary stimulus measure employed over the past 18 months appear to have worked their way through the economy to a large extent, and the prospects of a self-sustaining recovery are diminishing. The collapse in wage growth is a particularly telling sign, and we continue to forecast real GDP growth of just 0.9% and 0.8% in 2014 and 2015, versus consensus expectations of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively.

BMI Political View:  Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be prevented from enacting his preferred economic reforms, due to rising opposition from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its New Komeito coalition partner. As with Abe's attempts at fiscal reform, the premier will also find his...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Industry Forecast
12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
16
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
17
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
20
Generic Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
24
Over The Counter Medicine Market
24
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2010-2018)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Japan 2012-2018)
30
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: Economic Activity (Japan 2009-2018)
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
36
Japan Risk/Reward Index
42
Rewards
42
Risks
43
Market Overview
44
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Healthcare Sector
49
Clinical Trials
50
Regulatory Development
53
Regulatory Regime
53
Table: OTC Drug Categories In Japan
56
Table: Prescription-To-OTC Switches In Japan (2000-2012)
56
Table: NCEs Approved by Origin, 2000-2010
61
Table: Timeline Of NHI Drug List Price Cuts In Japan, 1992-2010
61
Competitive Landscape
64
Pharmaceutical Sector
64
Table: Top 15 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Tokyo Stock Exchange
65
Foreign Generic Industry
66
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
67
Pharmaceutical Retail
68
Company Profile
82
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
82
Astellas
90
Eisai
98
Daiichi Sankyo
105
Mitsubishi Tanabe
112
Sawai Pharmaceutical
115
Pfizer
118
Sanofi
122
Merck & Co
126
Novartis
130
GlaxoSmithKline
135
AstraZeneca
139
Demographic Forecast
143
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
144
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
146
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
146
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
147
Glossary
148
Methodology
150
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
150
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
150
Notes On Methodology
151
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
152
Index Overview
153
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
153
Indicator Weightings
154

The Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Japan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japan pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Japan, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc