Business Monitor International


Japan Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 114 pages
 
$1,295.00
Japan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Japan's refiners took a hit in Q1 2014 as new legislation intended to streamline the refining sector saw around 400,000 barrels per day ( b/d ) of capacity taken offline. We expect weak refined product demand to continue offering limited future prospects for the sector. I mport s of oil and LNG increased as a result of nuclear power generation losses in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. We expect the first nuclear power plants to return to the Japanese grid later in 2014, reducing the need for fossil fuel imports. That said, we expect LNG demand to remain high as a significant amount of nuclear capacity will remain offline .

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Japan's refining sector has taken a hit with the introduction of the new law stipulating an increased ratio of heavy residue cracking. The law, which entered into force on March 31 2014, saw the net shutdown of over 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) of distillation capacity. This will cut Japan's refining capacity to 3.94mn b/d, down over 1mn b/d from the early 2000s.

  • Due to the reduction in refining capacity, Japanese refiners have already begun reducing volumes on annual crude import contracts. With Iran currently remaining under sanctions, the Middle Eastern country is likely to take the brunt of reduced imports.

  • Japan's theoretical oil import requirement is expected to be 4.32mn b/d in 2014, and is expected to gradually fall as domestic demand falters, and coal power generation and nuclear restarts begin to displace oil demand from the power sector. Reduced demand from refiners should also more downward pressure. By 2023 we expect net oil imports to be 4.05mn b/d.

  • In April 2014, Japex announced it had begun commercial production of shale oil from an acid stimulated well at Onnagawa in the Akita Prefecture. The company is also looking to drill a horizontal well at the Fukumezawa oil field in May, where the first application...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data (Japan 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data 2 (Japan 2018-2023)
12
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Oil Production and Net Exports (Japan 2012-2017)
13
Table: Oil Production and Net Exports 2 (Japan 2018-2023)
13
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Japan 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2 (Japan 2018-2023)
18
Table: New Japanese LNG Supply Deals - Australia & US To Take A Larger Share
24
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption (Japan 2012-2017)
25
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption 2 (Japan 2018-2023)
26
Revenues/Import Costs
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
33
The Upstream Leaders
33
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
36
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Downstream Support
38
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Japan - Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Japan Upstream Rating - Overview
44
Japan Upstream Rating - Rewards
44
Japan Upstream Rating - Risks
44
Japan Downstream Rating - Overview
44
Market Overview
46
Japan Energy Market Overview
46
Table: Key Japanese Refiners
49
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
51
Table: US LNG Supply Contracts To Japan
53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Refineries In Japan
55
Service Stations
57
Oil Storage Facilities
57
LNG Terminals
58
Table: Operational LNG Terminals In Japan
59
Table: Japanese LNG Terminals Under Construction
61
Table: Proposed Japanese LNG Terminals
62
Oil Terminals/ Ports
62
Gas Storage Facilities
62
Gas Pipelines
62
Competitive Landscape
64
Competitive Landscape Summary
64
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
65
Company Profile
66
JX Holdings
66
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
81
Asia Overview
81
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
81
Tightening In The Downstream
85
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
89
A Hot Market For LNG
93
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
96
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Energy Market Overview
98
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
100
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
101
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
102
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
104
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
104
Appendix
107
Asia - Regional Appendix
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
115
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
116
Japan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
118
Table: Japan Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
118
Table: Japan Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
119
Table: Japan Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
120
Table: Japan Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
121
Table: Japan Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
122
Table: Japan Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
123
Glossary
125
Table: Glossary Of Terms
125
Methodology
127
Industry Forecast Methodology
127
Source
129
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
129
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
131
Table: Weighting
132

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2017 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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