Business Monitor International


Japan Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 114 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Japan's refiners took a hit in Q1 2014 as new legislation intended to streamline the refining sector saw around 400,000 barrels per day ( b/d ) of capacity taken offline. We expect weak refined product demand to continue offering limited future prospects for the sector. I mport s of oil and LNG increased as a result of nuclear power generation losses in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. We expect the first nuclear power plants to return to the Japanese grid later in 2014, reducing the need for fossil fuel imports. That said, we expect LNG demand to remain high as a significant amount of nuclear capacity will remain offline .

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Japan's refining sector has taken a hit with the introduction of the new law stipulating an increased ratio of heavy residue cracking. The law, which entered into force on March 31 2014, saw the net shutdown of over 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) of distillation capacity. This will cut Japan's refining capacity to 3.94mn b/d, down over 1mn b/d from the early 2000s.

  • Due to the reduction in refining capacity, Japanese refiners have already begun reducing volumes on annual crude import contracts. With Iran currently remaining under sanctions, the Middle Eastern country is likely to take the brunt of reduced imports.

  • Japan's theoretical oil import requirement is expected to be 4.32mn b/d in 2014, and is expected to gradually fall as domestic demand falters, and coal power generation and nuclear restarts begin to displace oil demand from the power sector. Reduced demand from refiners should also more downward pressure. By 2023 we expect net oil imports to be 4.05mn b/d.

  • In April 2014, Japex announced it had begun commercial production of shale oil from an acid stimulated well at Onnagawa in the Akita Prefecture. The company is also looking to drill a horizontal well at the Fukumezawa oil field in May, where the first application...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Japan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
11
Table: Japan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Japan Oil Production And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
13
Table: Japan Oil Production And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
14
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Japan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
17
Table: Japan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
19
Table: New Japanese LNG Supply Deals - Australia & US To Take A Larger Share
23
Refining And Oil Products Trade
24
Table: Japan Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
24
Table: Japan Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2017-2022
25
Revenues/Import Costs
27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
29
The Upstream Leaders
29
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
31
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Downstream Support
33
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Japan - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Japan Upstream Rating - Overview
38
Japan Upstream Rating - Rewards
38
Japan Upstream Rating - Risks
38
Japan Downstream Rating - Overview
38
Market Overview
39
Japan Energy Market Overview
39
Table: Key Japanese Refiners
42
Overview/State Role
43
Licensing And Regulation
43
Government Policy
44
International Energy Relations
44
Table: US LNG Supply Contracts To Japan
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Refineries In Japan
48
Service Stations
50
Oil Storage Facilities
50
LNG Terminals
51
Table: Operational LNG Terminals In Japan
52
Table: Japanese LNG Terminals Under Construction
54
Table: Proposed Japanese LNG Terminals
55
Oil Terminals/ Ports
55
Gas Storage Facilities
55
Gas Pipelines
55
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
58
Company Profile
59
JX Holdings
59
Other Summaries
64
Regional Overview
74
Asia Overview
74
Gas Is Hot
74
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
77
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
78
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
80
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
83
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
86
Refining Woes
86
Global Industry Overview
90
Appendix
97
Asia - Regional Appendix
97
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
101
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
103
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
105
Glossary
106
Table: Glossary Of Terms
106
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Source
110
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
110
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
112
Table: Weighting
114

The Japan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Japan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Japan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Japan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2017 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc