BMI View : We expect Japan's metal industry to see minimal growth over our five-year forecast period owing to our downbeat long-term macroeconomic view of the country. C ontinued reconstruction efforts from the earthquake over three years ago will help maintain production and consumption growth over the next several quarters, but we forecast the construction and infrastructure industries will see declining growth after 2015 . Moreover, our bearish view on steel prices, as well as the relatively high costs of production in Japan, further underpins our view.
We expect multi-year metal production and consumption trends to see minimal growth, and in the case of copper consumption, to decrease. Our metals industry forecasts are in line with our view for the Japanese economy as a whole. Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of these metals, but faces a declining share of world output and demand, as both China and India expand their global share of production and consumption. Moreover, we believe the positive impact of government stimulus measures in 2013 looks to be wearing off, and with companies facing pressures to hike wages, continued growth in capital expenditure will be hard to come by. This will act as a further headwind to domestic metal demand.
| Domestic & Foreign Fundamentals Lead To Subdued Outlook |
|Japan - Steel Production & Growth|
Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a larger net nickel exporter from 2014 onward. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China, a market we expect to remain reliant on imported metals, at least in the short- to medium-term.
The Japan Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Japan.
BMI's Japan Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Japan.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).