BMI View : Weak economic growth will lead Japan's metal s industry to see minimal growth to 2018 . The country's construction and infrastructure industries will see declining growth by late-2015 after recent expansion, while automotive production will be modest over the coming years. Yet a weaker yen is likely to encourage exports, supporting stable production levels.
Japanese refined metal production and consumption will see minimal growth in the coming years on account of weakening economic fundamentals. Our outlook for Japanese economic growth remains below consensus, as we currently forecast real GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2015. However, recent monetary loosening may boost construction in the shorter term through subdued interest rates, and a weaker yen should support metal exports.
While Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of various industrial metals, it faces a declining share of world output and demand, as both China and India expand their global share of production and consumption. Furthermore, we expect global steel prices to remain subdued in 2015 on the back of continued overcapacity, putting pressure on steel producers. Additionally, we believe the positive impact of government stimulus measures in 2013 looks to be wearing off, and with companies facing pressures to hike wages, capital expenditure growth will stall, acting as a further headwind to domestic metal demand.
| Steel Industry To See Subdued Growth |
|Japan - Steel Production & Growth|
Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a larger net nickel exporter in the coming years. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China, a market we expect to remain reliant on imported metals despite significant production capacity.
The Japan Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Japan.
BMI's Japan Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Japan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japan metals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Japan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).