Business Monitor International


Japan Metals Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Metals Report

BMI View : Weak economic growth will lead Japan's metal s industry to see minimal   growth to 2018 .   The country's   construction and infrastructure industries will see declining growth by late-2015 after recent expansion, while automotive production will be modest over the coming years. Yet a weaker yen is likely to encourage exports, supporting stable production levels.

Japanese refined metal production and consumption will see minimal growth in the coming years on account of weakening economic fundamentals. Our outlook for Japanese economic growth remains below consensus, as we currently forecast real GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2015. However, recent monetary loosening may boost construction in the shorter term through subdued interest rates, and a weaker yen should support metal exports.

While Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of various industrial metals, it faces a declining share of world output and demand, as both China and India expand their global share of production and consumption. Furthermore, we expect global steel prices to remain subdued in 2015 on the back of continued overcapacity, putting pressure on steel producers. Additionally, we believe the positive impact of government stimulus measures in 2013 looks to be wearing off, and with companies facing pressures to hike wages, capital expenditure growth will stall, acting as a further headwind to domestic metal demand. 

Steel Industry To See Subdued Growth
Japan - Steel Production & Growth

Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a larger net nickel exporter in the coming years. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China, a market we expect to remain reliant on imported metals despite significant production capacity.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Steel: Headwinds Beckon, But Collapse Not Near
10
Japan To Remain Among Top Producers Through 2018
14
Table: Japan - Steel Production & Consumption (kt, Unless Stated Otherwise)
15
Table: Japan - Historical Steel Production, Consumption & Trade (kt, Unless Stated Otherwise)
15
Aluminium: Modest Growth As Sector Recovers
16
Table: Japan - Refined Aluminium Production & Consumption Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
20
Copper: Production On Stronger Support
20
Table: Japan - Refined Copper Production & Consumption Forecasts (kt, unless stated otherwise)
23
Regulatory Development
24
Table: Japan - Political Outlook
25
Commodities Forecast
27
Steel Price Forecast
27
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
27
Short-Term Outlook
27
Core View
28
Global Steel Glut To Persist
28
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
29
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
31
Excessive Chinese Exports
32
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
33
Risks To Price Outlook
33
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
34
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
34
Commodity Strategy
35
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
36
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
38
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
39
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
40
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
41
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
42
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Table: Japan - Largest Listed Metal Companies
48
Company Profile
49
Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal
49
Table: Nippon Steel - Financial Data
51
JFE Holdings
52
Table: JFE Holdings - Financial Data
55
Methodology
56
Cross Checks
56

The Japan Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Japan.

BMI's Japan Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Japan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japan metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Japan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc