Business Monitor International


Japan Autos Report

Published 11 November 2014

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Autos Report

We reiterate our pessimistic outlook for Japan's domestic auto sales, as the sales tax hike (from 5.0% to 8.0%) in April resulted in auto sales growth being negatively impacted, prompting us to downgrade our 2014 overall vehicle sales forecast to 2.9% from 3.6% previously. In August, Japan saw the largest decline in auto sales since 2011, as the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) announced that auto sales tumbled 9.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 333,471 units. The slowdown appears to be broad based, as passenger car sales and commercial vehicles (CVs) declined 9.5% y-o-y and 7.1% y-o-y respectively in August.

For the first eight months of 2014, passenger car sales grew 7.1% y-o-y, largely driven by the sales surge between January and March, where consumers rushed to make purchases before the sales tax hike in April. While mini car sales growth has remained robust in 2014, and has generally outperformed the passenger car segment over the past few years, we believe a shift in the government's stance on the traditionally popular 'kei' car casts doubt on the segment.

As with our pessimistic outlook for passenger cars, we do not have a favourable view on the CV segment, and have revised our 2014 CV sales growth forecast to 5.1% from 6.8% previously. Although heavy CV sales remain insulated from a weakening economy (8M14 sales have grown 15% y-o-y), growth for a relatively sluggish light CV segment has offset positive results in the heavy CV segment, as light CV sales for 8M14 have grown 4.6% y-o-y to 557,332 units, bringing 8M14 sales growth for the overall CV segment to 6.4%.

We believe auto production will also see a gradual decline over the coming years, as Japanese carmakers such Toyota and Honda find an increasing need to localize their manufacturing in growing markets such as India and Indonesia, which will also serve as an export hub in the coming years. However, we do not expect an exodus of production, and we see carmakers tapping on excess...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
16
Market Overview
17
Table: Vehicle Production By Company
18
Table: Vehicle Sales By Company
19
Industry Developments
20
Table: Biggest Importers Of Car Parts From Japan In 2013
22
Passenger Cars
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
23
Table: Passenger Car Production By Company
24
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Company
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
25
Table: CV Production By Company
25
Table: CV Sales By Company
26
Motorcycles
27
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
27
Table: Motorcycle Production By Brand
30
Table: Motorcycle Sales By Engine Displacement
30
Suppliers
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
46
Company Profile
47
Company Monitor
47
Toyota Motor
50
Nissan Motor
54
Mitsubishi Motors
56
Regional Overview
57
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
57
Global Industry Overview
63
Global Overview
63
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
63
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
63
Trucks Give North America A Lift
64
India Brings Relief To BRICs
66
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
71
Methodology
72
Industry Forecasts
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
74
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Japan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Japan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Japan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Japanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc