Business Monitor International


Japan Autos Report

Published 21 May 2014

  • 81 pages
 
$1,295.00
Japan Autos Report

According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), auto production in Japan rose 7.1% y-o-y in February 2014 (latest available), to 863,397 units, bringing output for the first two months of 2014 to 1,724,251 units, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year (y-o-y).

Auto sales too, rose 17.4% y-o-y in March 2014, to 783,389 units. This was the seventh consecutive month of y-o-y growth and the best monthly sales figure in at least two years. March's performance brought total vehicle sales in Q114 to 1,844,464 units, an increase of 20.7% y-o-y.

While undoubtedly spectacular, we do not expect these phenomenal growth rates sustained for the rest of the year. The hike in the national consumption tax, which took place on April 1 2014, resulted in consumers bringing forward their auto purchases to avoid paying higher taxes. Indeed, the surge in March sales was aided by last-minute consumer buying sprees.

Another unfavourable development is the dim business outlook among corporates. The latest Bank of Japan Tankan survey for Q114 found that firms expect conditions to worsen more than they did during the previous consumption tax hike in 1997. This does not bode well for job creation or economic growth in subsequent quarters.

Against such a backdrop, it will not be surprising to see a precipitous decline in monthly vehicle sales in the near term as the market struggles to absorb the economic fallout from the sales tax increase. This will then negate the strong y-o-y sales growth in Q114. As such, we are happy to maintain our full-year total vehicle sales forecast of 5,418,000 units, an increase of merely 0.8%.

That said, we expect the mini vehicle (kei) segment to continue outperforming the market in 2014. As consumer prices begin to rise faster than wages on the back of 'Abenomics' (a set of economic policies which aim to generate inflation in the country), consumers will become more mindful of the rising cost of living and will seek to purchase fuel-efficient models...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
12
Market Overview
16
Table: Vehicle Production By Company
17
Table: Vehicle Sales By Company
18
Industry Developments
19
Table: Biggest Importers Of Car Parts From Japan In 2013
21
Passenger Cars
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
23
Table: Passenger Car Production By Company
24
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Company
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
25
Table: CV Production By Company
26
Table: CV Sales By Company
26
Motorcycles
27
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
27
Table: Motorcycle Production By Brand
30
Table: Motorcycle Sales By Engine Displacement
30
Suppliers
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Corporate Japan Not Convinced
38
Private Consumption Could Possibly Contract In 2014
39
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
45
Company Profile
46
Company News Alert
46
Toyota Motor
50
Nissan Motor
55
Mitsubishi Motors
57
Regional Overview
58
Asia Regional Overview
58
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
58
Global Industry Overview
63
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
63
European Growth Gathers Momentum
63
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
65
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
66
Demographic Forecast
69
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
70
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
71
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
72
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
72
Methodology
73
Industry Forecasts
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Sources
74
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
75
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
76

The Japan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Japan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Japan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Japanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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