Business Monitor International


Japan Autos Report

Published 15 August 2014

  • 81 pages
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$1,295.00
Japan Autos Report

According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), auto sales rose 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June 2014 to 452,555 units. We highlighted in April that we expected sales to take a hit after the hike in the national consumption tax on April 1 and, true enough, sales contracted in April and May ( see 'Auto Sales Set To Decline As Tax Hike Bites', April 4). That said, the decline in sales was not as sharp as we expected and this has prompted us to revise our full-year forecast upwards.  

Initial signs indicate that the market is weathering the sales tax hike well and June sales figures have brought H114 sales to 3,005,806 units, an increase of 10.8% y-o-y. The double-digit increase is attributable to the strong Q114 as consumers frontloaded their vehicle purchases ahead of the sales tax hike. With demand remaining resilient even after the tax increase, however, we are upgrading our full-year vehicle sales growth forecast from 0.8% to 3.6%.

Mini Vehicle Segment To Remain Outperformer

Another factor that will support auto sales is the strong growth seen in the mini vehicle segment (engine displacement of 600cc and below). Monthly sales in this segment have been experiencing positive y-o-y growth since July 2013 and as the accompanying chart below highlights, sales even managed to eke out a small y-o-y gain in April and May 2014, the period after the consumption tax hike.

We expect mini vehicles to continue outperforming the broader auto market and with this segment making up 40% of the overall market, its positive growth trajectory will provide significant support to domestic carmakers.

Furthermore, our Country Risk team expects inflation to surge over the coming years as the Bank of Japan remains committed to its monetary easing programme ( see ' More Easing To Come Despite Inflation Surge', June 19). However, real wage growth remains elusive and as inflation rises faster than wages ( see 'Self-Sustaining Recovery Looking Unlikely', July 1),...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
16
Market Overview
17
Table: Vehicle Production By Company
18
Table: Vehicle Sales By Company
19
Industry Developments
20
Table: Biggest Importers Of Car Parts From Japan In 2013
22
Passenger Cars
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
23
Table: Passenger Car Production By Company
24
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Company
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
25
Table: CV Production By Company
25
Table: CV Sales By Company
26
Motorcycles
27
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Japan 2012-2018)
27
Table: Motorcycle Production By Brand
30
Table: Motorcycle Sales By Engine Displacement
30
Suppliers
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Table: Japan - Economic Activity
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
46
Company Profile
47
Company Monitor
47
Toyota Motor
50
Nissan Motor
54
Mitsubishi Motors
56
Regional Overview
57
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
57
Global Industry Overview
63
Global Overview
63
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
63
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
63
Trucks Give North America A Lift
64
India Brings Relief To BRICs
66
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
71
Methodology
72
Industry Forecasts
72
Sector-Specific Methodology
73
Sources
73
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
74
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Japan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Japan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Japan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Japanese automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc