Business Monitor International


Japan Agribusiness Report

Published 16 April 2014

  • 94 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Since announcing the scrapping of the four-decade long ' gentan ' subsidy programme for rice farmers, we are increasingly optimistic that the shift from protecting the Japanese agriculture industry at all costs to a more open and competitive one is happening sooner than we had anticipated. In particular for the rice sector, this new policy should lead to more industry consolidation and reap economies of scale in the longer term. While this should invigorate the ailing industry, we still view the hold on the 300 over percent in import tariff as a barrier to a true liberalising of the sector.

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2017/18: 0.3% on the 2013 level to 9.0mn tonnes. The gradual consolidation of the industry should increase economies of scale and output of the industry.

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: 0.6% on the 2013 level to 507,800 tonnes. Production of beef should grow alongside increased wages.

  • Soybean consumption growth to 2018: 10.2% on the 2013 level to 3.3mn tonnes (with growth mainly due to base effects). Not counting its use as an important ingredient in animal feed, tofu (soybean curd), is the most common end use for soy in Japan, accounting for 57% of total food soybean use.

  • 2014f real GDP growth: 1.3% (down from 2.4% in 2013, forecast to average 1.3% out to 2018).

  • 2014f consumer price inflation: 1.0% average (up from 0.8% in 2013, forecast to average 1.6% to 2018).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD98.5bn in 2014 (down from USD102.0bn in 2012; forecast to decline annually by 0.6% on average to 2018)

Industry Outlook

The government's step towards removing all rice subsidies, which effectively encourage farmers to reduce rice crops, or 'gentan', by March 31 2019 is a move in the right direction towards modernising the rice sector and increasing productivity and efficiency. However, we believe that significantly more can be done to improve the competitiveness of the sector. At present, more than...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness SWOT
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
14
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
16
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
18
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Livestock Outlook
20
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
22
Table: Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
22
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
23
Soybean Outlook
23
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
24
Table: Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
26
Commodities Forecast
27
Monthly Grains Update
27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
35
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
36
Monthly Softs Update
37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
45
Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
46
Upstream Analysis
47
Asia Machinery Outlook
47
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
49
Asia GM Outlook
55
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
59
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops, 2012
60
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
60
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
63
Downstream Analysis
67
Food
67
Food Consumption
67
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
68
Confectionery
68
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
69
Canned Food
70
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
71
Drink
71
Alcoholic Drinks
71
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
72
Table: Beer Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
73
Table: Wine Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
74
Hot Drinks
74
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
75
Table: Tea Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
75
Soft Drinks
75
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
76
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
77
Table: Fruit/Vegetable Juice Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
77
Table: Bottled Water Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
78
Mass Grocery Retail
79
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Value - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
80
Regional Overview
81
Table: Select Companies - Palm Oil Landbank, 2012
85
Competitive Landscape
87
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
87
Demographic Forecast
88
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
89
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
90
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
91
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sector-Specific Methodology
93

The Japan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Japan.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Japan Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc