Business Monitor International


Japan Agribusiness Report

Published 13 October 2014

  • 94 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Despite the government's acknowledgement that the country's agricultural sector is in need of reform and transformation, we believe that the piecemeal policies adopted and the lack of compromise in international free trade talks points to the gap between rhetoric and action. Indeed, Japan's uncompromising stance in maintaining tariffs on imported rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy and sugar - the country's sacred farm products list - might prove costly in the long run. With an ageing farmer population (the average age of a Japanese farmer is close to 70 years old) coupled with highly inefficient farming methods - usually constrained by the small plots of family run farms - the Japanese agriculture industry faces a bleak future if it does not reinvent itself. There are however, green shoots in the midst of this, as illustrated by the rise of more public-private joint ventures in the agriculture space such as the new subsidiary of Sojitz Corp and Toyo Reizo Co (an affiliate with Mitsubishi Corp) which will have large-scale cultivation of greenhouse vegetables and blue fin tuna respectively in cooperation with agricultural cooperatives.

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2017/2018: 3.4% on the 2013 level to 9.0mn tonnes. Supply will continue to fall with subsidies still in place.

  • Beef consumption growth to 2017/18: 4.2% on the 2013 level to 1.3mn tonnes. Marginal growth is expected especially in the nearer term as higher consumption taxes curb spending.

  • Pork production growth to 2018: 7.8% on the 2013 level to 1.4mn tonnes. Pork production should grow stronger than beef as consumers increase their intake of white meat, a healthier alternative to red meat.

  • 2014f real GDP growth: 0.9% (down from 1.6% in 2013, forecast to average 0.8% out to 2018).

  • 2014f consumer price inflation: 2.4% average (up from 0.4% in 2013, forecast to average 2.6% to 2018).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD94.5bn in 2014 (down from USD97.4bn in 2013;...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
19
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Soybean Outlook
25
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Commodities Price Analysis
29
Monthly Grains Strategy
29
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
36
Monthly Softs Strategy
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
44
Upstream Analysis
46
Asia Machinery Outlook
46
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
46
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
50
Asia GM Outlook
54
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
60
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
60
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
65
Downstream Analysis
67
Food
67
Food Consumption
67
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2011-2018)
68
Confectionery
68
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2011-2018)
69
Meat
71
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Japan 2013-2018)
71
Drink
72
Alcoholic Drinks
72
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
73
Hot Drinks
74
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
74
Soft Drinks
75
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Japan 2013-2018)
75
Mass Grocery Retail
77
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2013-2018)
78
Regional Overview
79
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
81
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
85
Competitive Landscape
87
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
87
Demographic Forecast
88
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
89
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
90
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
91
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sector-Specific Methodology
93

The Japan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Japan.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Japan Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc