Business Monitor International


Japan Agribusiness Report

Published 16 April 2014

  • 94 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Japan Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Japan's uncompromising stance in maintaining tariffs on imported rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy and sugar - the country's sacred farm products list - could prove costly in the long run. Despite the more positive tone of the government in terms of committing to free trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the decision to maintain tariffs on key exports attracted widespread criticism from US farm groups in May 2014, such as the National Association of Wheat Growers, US Wheat Associates, USA Rice Federation, the National Pork Producers Council and the International Dairy Foods Association. Given the influence of these bodies in US Congress, a refusal to support the TPP might jeopardise future negotiations. We are of the view that the government will continue to work gradually to reduce tariffs on its farm products and cut down on subsidies for local farmers. As such, we believe that the scrapping of the four-decade 'gentan' subsidy programme for rice farmers is an example of a policy in the right direction.

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2017/18: -3.4% on the 2013 level to 9.0mn tonnes. Supply will continue to fall given that subsidies are still in place.

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: -1.0% on the 2013 level to 507,800 tonnes. Production will fall as consumers on tight budgets prefer cheaper poultry and pork to beef.

  • Soybean consumption growth to 2018: 10.0% on the 2013 level to 3.3mn tonnes (with growth mainly due to base effects). Not counting its use as an important ingredient in animal feed, tofu (soybean curd) is the most common end use for soy in Japan, accounting for 57% of total food soybean use.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 1.3% (down from 1.6% in 2013, forecast to average 1.1% out to 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price inflation: 1.6% average (up from 0.5% in 2013, forecast to average 2.1% to 2018).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD94.5bn in 2014 (down from USD97.4bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Japan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Japan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Table: Japan Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
19
Table: Japan Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2018
19
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
21
Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
22
Table: Japan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Japan Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Japan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Soybean Outlook
25
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Japan Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Commodities Price Analysis
29
Monthly Grains Strategy
29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
37
Monthly Softs Strategy
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
47
Upstream Analysis
49
Asia Machinery Outlook
49
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
51
Asia GM Outlook
57
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
61
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
62
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
63
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
66
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
71
Confectionery
71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
73
Meat
74
Table: Meat Volume Production & Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
74
Fish
75
Table: Fish Volume Production & Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
75
Drink
76
Alcoholic Drinks
76
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
77
Hot Drinks
78
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
78
Soft Drinks
78
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
79
Mass Grocery Retail
79
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Value - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
81
Regional Overview
82
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
86
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
88
Competitive Landscape
89
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
89
Demographic Forecast
90
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
91
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
92
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
93
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
93
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Sector-Specific Methodology
95

The Japan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Japan.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Japan Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc