BMI View: Italy is trying hard to appeal to international investors, with the government reorganising its holdings in gas and power grid networks, and signing investment fund agreements with potential trade partners, such as Russia. But the country is still suffering in the face of economic challenges, and the austerity measures proposed to turn the economy around are unpopular. As such, it is of little surprise that firms such as E.ON are reconsidering their role in Italy's electricity market. In addition, the sluggish economic performance is also having an impact on electricity consumption levels - we have lowered our forecasts this quarter. In the short term at least, we forecast that the renewable energy sector and transmission and distribution projects present the best opportunities for growth.
Gas-fired power plants account for just under half of Italy's electricity generation capacity, and this figure is unlikely to change over the course of our forecast period; but government ruling means that this gas will come from conventional sources, and not shale gas exploration. The gas-fired power market is likely to see changes over the course of our forecast period, however, given E.ON's announcement that it is considering selling its Italian assets. Italy has no nuclear power stations and following a referendum in mid-2011, Italians voted against turning to nuclear sources of power.
During the 2012-2022 period, Italy's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 0.9%, to reach 306.0TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 2.0% gain in gas-fired power. Coal-fired generation is expected to fall by 1.5% per annum, with the use of oil-fuelled generation to drop by an annual average of 13.0% over the period.
Following an estimated decrease in 2012 real GDP of 2.4%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 0.5% between 2012 and 2022. Over the 2012-2022 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast to be 0.8%.
The Italy Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.
The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:
Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).
Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.
Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.