Business Monitor International


Italy Power Report

Published 14 October 2014

  • 63 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Italy Power Report

BMI View:   Italy is trying hard to appeal to international investors, with the government reorganising its holdings in gas and power grid networks. The first results are promising with an imminent EUR2.1bn deal by China's State Grid International Development (SGDL) to b u y a 35% stake in Italy's power grid. But the country is still suffering in the face of economic challenges and the austerity measures proposed to turn the economy around are unpopular. As such, it is of little surprise that E.ON has officially announced the will to sell its Italian operations with Gazprom, Edison and Erg rumoured as potential buyers. In addition, the sluggish economic performance is also having an impact on electricity consumption levels - we have lowered our forecasts last quarter. In the short term at least, we forecast that the renewable energy sector and transmission and distribution projects present the best opportunities for growth. Our view is confirmed by the new energy policy unveiled in August 2014 (Sblocca Energia). It aims at providing a lighter bureaucratic burden for new energy infrastructure investments and guaranteeing minimal earnings, based on regulated tariffs, for gas transmission and distribution projects.

Gas-fired power plants account for just under half of Italy's electricity generation capacity, and this figure is unlikely to change over our ten-year forecast period 2014-2013; but a government ruling means this gas will come from conventional sources and not shale gas exploration. The gas-fired power market is likely to see changes over the course of our forecast period. After heavy investments during the pre-crisis period in combined cycle gas fired plants, this market has found itself, due to a consumption contraction driven by an economy in protracted recession, with an extensive overcapacity. In what appears as a texbook case of regulatory capture the government is set to announce a new capacity market regime. Rumours suggest the new...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Italy Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Italy Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2018-2023)
13
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2017)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2018-2023)
21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2017)
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2018-2023)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2017)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2018-2023)
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Rewards
26
Risks
26
North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
Regulation And Competition
35
Pricing
36
Italy Power Projects Database
37
Table: Italy Key Projects - Power
37
Competitive Landscape
39
Enel
39
Edison
40
Terna
41
Electrabel
42
Company Profile
43
Enel
43
Regional Overview
48
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
48
Glossary
56
Table: Glossary Of Terms
56
Methodology
57
Methodology And Sources
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
60
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Italy Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc