Business Monitor International


Italy Power Report

Published 07 April 2014

  • 63 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Italy Power Report

BMI View:   Italy is trying hard to appeal to international investors, with the government reorganising its holdings in gas and power grid networks, and signing investment fund agreements with potential trade partners, such as Russia. But the country is still suffering in the face of economic challenges, and the austerity measures proposed to turn the economy around are unpopular. As such, it is of little surprise that E.ON has officially announced the will to sell its Italian operations with Gazprom , Edison and Erg rumoured as potential buyers. In addition, the sluggish economic performance is also having an impact on electricity consumption levels - we have lowered our forecasts last quarter. In the short term at least, we forecast that the renewable energy sector and transmission and distribution projects present the best opportunities for growth.

Gas-fired power plants account for just under half of Italy's electricity generation capacity, and this figure is unlikely to change over our ten-year forecast period 2014-2013; but a government ruling means this gas will come from conventional sources and not shale gas exploration. The gas-fired power market is likely to see changes over the course of our forecast period, however, given E.ON's announcement it is considering selling its Italian assets. Italy has no nuclear power stations and following a referendum in mid-2011, Italians voted against turning to nuclear sources of power.

During the 2013-2023 period, Italy's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.2%, to reach 305.1TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 2.6% gain in gas-fired power. Coal-fired generation is expected to fall by 1.7% per annum, with the use of oil-fuelled generation to drop by an annual average of 11.3% over the period. 

Following an estimated decrease in 2013 real GDP of 1.8%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 0.7% between 2014 and 2023. Over 2013-2023, the average annual growth...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Italy Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Italy Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Italy Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
11
Table: Italy Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
13
Table: Italy Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
15
Table: Italy Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
16
Electricity Consumption
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
22
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Italy Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
24
Table: Italy Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
24
Table: Italy Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
24
Table: Italy Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Developed States' Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
35
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation and Competition
37
Pricing
38
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States
39
Italy Power Projects Database
40
Table: Italy Key Projects - Power
40
Competitive Landscape
42
Enel
42
Edison
43
Terna
43
Endesa
44
Electrabel
44
Company Profile
45
Enel
45
Regional Overview
50
Developed States Industry Overview
50
Table: 2013 Regional Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % Change y-o-y
50
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % Chg y-o-y
53
Glossary
55
Table: Glossary Of Terms
55
Methodology
56
Methodology And Sources
56
Industry Forecasts
56
Power Industry - Data Methodology
57
Generation and Consumption Data
57
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
58
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
61
Sources
62

The Italy Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc