BMI View: While Italy produces around 90% of the electricity it needs for domestic consumption, it has the potential for greater self-sufficiency. Having ruled both nuclear power and shale gas exploration out, growth in domestic electricity production is centred on coal, conventional gas, renewable and hydroelectric sources of power. Of these we forecast that gas-fired sources of power will continue to grow, as renewable have been hard hit by the government's decision in mid-2013 to stop granting feed-in tariffs for new solar installations, while offshore wind continues to be characterised by a lack of interest. In the short term, at least, the greatest investment opportunities are emerging in the transmission and distribution sector, with improved connections between Italy, its islands, and bordering countries. The government may be preparing a series of incentives to attract international investors, as part of its 'Destination Italy' programme, but we do not expect the power sector to be convinced until Italy's economy is back on track.
Gas-fired power plants account for just under half of Italy's electricity generation capacity, and this figure is unlikely to change over the course of our forecast period; but government ruling means that this gas will come from conventional sources, and not shale gas exploration. Italy did launch a gas futures exchange in September 2013, however, which is a move that aims to boost Italy's role as a regional trading hub for gas, and could have implications for gas-fired power generating capacity. Italy has no nuclear power stations and following a referendum in mid-2011, Italians voted against turning to nuclear sources of power.
During the 2012-2022 period, Italy's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.5%, to reach 327.0TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 2.9% gain in gas-fired power. Coal-fired generation is expected to fall by 1.5% per annum, with the use of oil-fuelled generation...
The Italy Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Italy Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Italy's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.
The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:
Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).
Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.
Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.