Business Monitor International


Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 13 November 2014

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$1,295.00
Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   SN pharmaceutical expenditure will decline in 2014 - creating revenue pressures for drugmakers and pharmacies in Italy and increasing out-of-pocket costs for the population. The government aimed to slash public healthcare costs by EUR900mn (USD1.2bn) in 2012 and EUR1.8bn (USD2.4bn) in 2013 and aims to continue to contain healthcare spending by EUR2.0bn (USD2.7bn) in 2014 and EUR2.1bn (USD2.8bn) in 2015.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR20.91bn (USD27.60bn) in 2013 to EUR19.94bn (USD26.71bn) in 2014; -4.7% in local currency terms and -3.2% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR144.30bn (USD190.48bn) in 2013 to EUR145.11bn (USD194.45bn) in 2014; +0.6% growth in local currency terms and 2.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index : In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index (RR!s), Italy is 13th out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.

Key Trends And Developments

Highlighting ongoing revenue challenges for drugmakers operating in Italy, compared with the first six months of 2013, SSN pharmaceutical expenditure fell to EUR4.51bn (USD5.77bn) in H214, equating to a 3.2% decline in spending.

A stakeholder meeting to discuss the future of Italy's biosimilars policy was held on October 20 at the Italian Ministry of Health. The meeting was organised following the results of a survey conducted among 470 European physicians by the Alliance for Safe Biologic Medicines (ASBM). The ASBM survey found that physicians in the country have a better understanding of biologics and biosimilars than their counterparts in France,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Italy 2010-2018)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2012-2018)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Italy 2012-2018)
30
Other Healthcare Data
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: Italy - Economic Activity
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Italy Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Biotechnology
51
Clinical Trials
52
Regulatory Development
53
Intellectual Property Developments
54
Key Concerns For Italy
54
Pricing Regime
55
Reimbursement Regime
59
Tenders
62
Competitive Landscape
64
Pharmaceutical Industry
64
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
66
Retail Pharmacy Sector
67
Company Profile
69
Recordati
69
Menarini
74
GlaxoSmithKline
78
Pfizer
80
Novartis
83
Sanofi
85
Merck & Co
87
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
92
Glossary
93
Methodology
95
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
95
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
95
Notes On Methodology
96
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
97
Ratings Overview
98
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
98
Indicator Weightings
99
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN ITALY

The sharp drop in public pharmaceutical expenditure in Italy in the first four months of 2012 serves as a warning for the continuation of a fall in spending on medicinesduringthe remainder of the year. BMInotes that this does not bode well for drug makers selling their products in Italy as the success of the implemented policies may encourage the enforcement of further cost-containment measures, which,together with the ongoing public hospital debt situation, seriously hampers the country's attractiveness as a location in which to sell drugs, despite its favourable demographic characteristics.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: EUR24.90bn (US$34.63bn) in 2011 to EUR23.54bn (US$29.89bn) in 2012;
-5.5% in local currency terms (-13.7% in US dollar terms).

Healthcare: EUR152.17bn (US$211.63bn) in 2011 to EUR155. 52bn (US$197.51bn) in 2012; +2.2% growth in local currency terms (-6.7% in US dollar terms).

Medical devices: EUR6.42bn (US$8.93bn) in 2011 to EUR6.61bn (US$8.40bn) in 2012; +3.0% growth in local currency terms (-5.9% in US dollar terms).

Risk/RewardRating

In our PharmaceuticalsandHealthcareRisk/RewardRatings (RRRs) for Q113, Italy is ninth out of the 10 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely because of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc