Business Monitor International


Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 21 February 2014

  • 100 pages
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$1,295.00
Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The downward pressure on generic drug prices in Italy, potential implementation of drug tenders raising the level of competition and the ultimate commoditisation of off-patent medicines, draw attention to the inherent challenges for generic drugmakers looking to profit from the government's focus on cost containment in the healthcare sector.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR20.91bn (US$27.60bn) in 2013 to EUR19.93bn (US$25.31bn) in 2014; -4.7% in local currency terms and -8.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: EUR153.55bn (US$202.69bn) in 2013 to EUR155.70bn (US$197.74bn) in 2014; +1.4% growth in local currency terms and -2.4% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating: In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Italy is 13th out of the 15 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.

Key Trends And Developments

In late Q413, the Italian government announced that it is looking to implement a tendering system for medicines.

A report (Clinical Trials of Drugs in Italy) published by the Italian Medicines Agency, in December 2013, shows that the number of clinical trials in 2012 in Italy was essentially the same (697) as in 2011 (676); early phase studies (Phase I and II) account for the 42.9% of the total, which means that Italian researchers are notably involved in the early phases of the clinical drug development. The best represented therapeutic area is oncology (34.9%).

BMI Economic View: Following nine straight quarters of contraction, we forecast real GDP growth in Italy to reach 0.4% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Italy Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Italy Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Table: Italy Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Table: Italy Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Italy Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Italy Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Italy Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Italy Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
29
Table: Italy Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
29
Other Healthcare Data
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Table: Italy - Economic Activity
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Italy Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
45
Industry Trends And Developments
46
Epidemiology
46
Healthcare Sector
46
Biotechnology
49
Clinical Trials
50
Regulatory Development
52
Intellectual Property Developments
53
Pricing Regime
54
Reimbursement Regime
58
Tenders
61
Competitive Landscape
63
Pharmaceutical Industry
63
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
65
Retail Pharmacy Sector
66
Company Profile
68
Recordati
68
Menarini
73
GlaxoSmithKline
77
Pfizer
80
Novartis
83
Sanofi
85
Merck & Co
87
Demographic Forecast
89
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
92
Glossary
93
Methodology
95
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
95
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
95
Notes On Methodology
96
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
97
Ratings Overview
98
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
98
Indicator Weightings
99
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN ITALY

The sharp drop in public pharmaceutical expenditure in Italy in the first four months of 2012 serves as a warning for the continuation of a fall in spending on medicinesduringthe remainder of the year. BMInotes that this does not bode well for drug makers selling their products in Italy as the success of the implemented policies may encourage the enforcement of further cost-containment measures, which,together with the ongoing public hospital debt situation, seriously hampers the country's attractiveness as a location in which to sell drugs, despite its favourable demographic characteristics.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: EUR24.90bn (US$34.63bn) in 2011 to EUR23.54bn (US$29.89bn) in 2012;
-5.5% in local currency terms (-13.7% in US dollar terms).

Healthcare: EUR152.17bn (US$211.63bn) in 2011 to EUR155. 52bn (US$197.51bn) in 2012; +2.2% growth in local currency terms (-6.7% in US dollar terms).

Medical devices: EUR6.42bn (US$8.93bn) in 2011 to EUR6.61bn (US$8.40bn) in 2012; +3.0% growth in local currency terms (-5.9% in US dollar terms).

Risk/RewardRating

In our PharmaceuticalsandHealthcareRisk/RewardRatings (RRRs) for Q113, Italy is ninth out of the 10 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely because of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc