Business Monitor International


Italy Oil & Gas Report

Published 27 October 2014

  • 107 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Italy Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We maintain a subdued outlook for Italy's oil and gas industry due to projected gradual decline in country's oil and gas reserves as well as rapid downsizing of its refining sector. While the increased investor interest in the country's prospective Adriatic and gradually imporving regulatory environment are positive signs, we believe these improvements will take some years to garner more substantial industry changes.  

Headline Forecasts (Italy 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 105.0 107.0 109.1 107.1 105.1 118.4 131.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 2,001.6 2,061.6 1,958.6 1,880.2 1,917.8 1,937.0 1,937.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,393.1 1,330.4 1,298.4 1,281.1 1,277.6 1,289.9 1,303.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.2
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 74.9 74.5 74.9 75.6 76.3 77.2 77.9
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main developments in Q4 2014:

  • Italy is making notable progress in speeding up its exploration and production permitting process, as part of its wider aim to boost production and reduce the country's overall import bill. We believe this trend will accelerate, especially in the country's Adriatic offshore acreage, consistent with a regional trend of increasing interest in the prospective Adriatic.

  • US-based Sound Oil has announced an 82% upgrade in the recoverable volumes of the Santa Maria Goretti (SMG) gas prospect and 31% increase at the Rapagnano gas field onshore Italy.

  • Sound Oil has secured a formal licence for the DR 74 AP permit offshore Italy, which contains the Laura gas field, originally discovered by Eni in 1980. Laura was earlier successfully tested at a stabilised rate of 0.283mn standard cubic metres (cu...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Italy's Proven Oil And Gas Reserves, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy's Proven Oil And Gas Reserves, 2018-2023
10
Table: Italy's Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
11
Table: Italy's Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Italy's Oil Production And Net Exports 2012-2017
14
Table: Italy's Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
17
Table: Italy's Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
17
Table: Italy's Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
18
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: Italy's Gas Production Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Italy's Gas Production Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Upstream: US Catches Up To Canada
29
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Western Europe Upstream Languishes Without Shale Outlook
32
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
34
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Italy - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Italy Upstream Rating
38
Italy Downstream Rating
38
Market Overview
40
Italy Energy Market Overview
40
Italy - Major Upstream Projects
42
Table: Upstream Projects Database
42
International Relations
42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Table: Refineries In Italy
44
Service Stations
45
Oil Storage Facilities
46
Oil Terminals/Ports
46
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
46
Table: Italy - LNG Terminals
48
Gas Storage Facilities
50
Gas Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Company Profile
57
Eni
57
ERG
63
Royal Dutch Shell
68
Po Valley Energy
71
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
80
North America & Western Europe Overview
80
North America
81
Europe
85
Muted Consumption Growth
89
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
90
Global Industry Overview
92
Global Energy Market Overview
92
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
94
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
95
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
96
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
98
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
98
Appendix
101
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
101
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
107
Italy - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
116
Glossary
117
Table: Glossary Of Terms
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Source
121
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
121
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
123
Table: Weighting
124

The Italy Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Italy including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Italy Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Italy to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc