Business Monitor International


Italy Oil & Gas Report

Published 07 March 2014

  • 107 pages
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$1,295.00
Italy Oil & Gas Report

Although Italy is thought to retain moderate untapped hydrocarbons potential, bureaucratic and regulatory challenges are set to hamper previously outlined goals to reduce the country's hefty import burden. Despite the start of production from the Tempa Rosa field from 2017, we see only limited upside risk to our production forecast from current exploration and production efforts. While we expect increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as new infrastructure comes online, we are not yet assuming all planned terminals will go ahead, given delays to other plans. We also see risks that Italy's sizable downstream sector will see further downsizing as the sector struggles under the pressure of persistently low margins.

The main trends and developments we highlight in Italy's oil and gas sector are:

  • According to the EIA, Italy is estimated to have produced 156,530 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013. We see this remaining broadly stable until 2015. We forecast that Italy will see an increase in oil production from 2017 onwards, as the Tempa Rosa field comes online. Production is set to peak at around 210,000 b/d in 2020.

  • Italy is seeking to reduce its spending on energy by cutting imports. On October 16 2012 it unveiled a new energy strategy that seeks to reduce imports to 67% of demand by 2020. However, the ability to meet these already ambitious targets is hampered by an absence of policy clarity with successive changes in government. Challenges also stem from a complicated bureaucracy and regulatory environment, with exploration and production efforts frequently delayed.

  • Italy is thought to retain moderate untapped oil and gas potential. Activity both onshore and particularly offshore presents some upside risk to our outlook. The Mediterranean is increasingly gaining interest, due to the substantial hydrocarbons potential in the southern Mediterranean near to Cyprus and Israel, but Italy's waters remain prospective and underexplored. However, a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Italy's Proven Oil And Gas Reserves, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy's Proven Oil And Gas Reserves, 2018-2023
10
Table: Italy's Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
11
Table: Italy's Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Italy's Oil Production And Net Exports 2012-2017
14
Table: Italy's Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
17
Table: Italys' Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
17
Table: Italy's Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
18
Gas Supply And Demand
21
Table: Italy's Gas Production Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Italy's Gas Production Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
32
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
34
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Italy - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Italy Upstream Rating
41
Italy Downstream Rating
41
Market Overview
42
Italy Energy Market Overview
42
Italy - Major Upstream Projects
43
Table: Upstream Projects Database
43
International Relations
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
45
Oil Refineries
45
Table: Refineries In Italy
45
Service Stations
46
Oil Storage Facilities
47
Oil Terminals/Ports
47
Oil Pipelines
47
LNG Terminals
48
Table: Italy - LNG Terminals
50
Gas Storage Facilities
51
Gas Pipelines
51
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Company Profile
58
Eni
58
ERG
64
Royal Dutch Shell
69
Po Valley Energy
72
Other Summaries
76
Regional Overview
82
North America & Western Europe Overview
82
North America
83
Table: Canadian LNG Export Terminal Project Applications
88
Europe
89
Muted Consumption Growth
94
The Difficulty In Moving Exports Along
96
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
97
Global Industry Overview
99
Appendix
106
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
106
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
111
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
112
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Source
117
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
119
Table: Weighting
121

The Italy Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Italy including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Italy Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Italy to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc