Vehicle sales in Italy over the first 10 months of 2014 grew 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.27mn units. This recovery in sales emerged alongside a marginally brighter macroeconomic environment in Italy compared to the recessionary 2013 period. In 2014, we expect this resurgence across the market to continue as low base effects and pent-up demand take hold. Accordingly, we forecast 3.8% growth in vehicle sales over the year.
BMI forecasts 3% growth in passenger car sales in 2014 as improvements in consumer sentiment during the year filter through to the autos sector. However, though consumer sentiment had shown signs of recovery toward the end of H114, our Country Risk team highlights that consumer spending is likely to remain stagnant going into 2015. While we do expect private consumption growth to enter positive territory in 2015, it will remain at a sluggish 0.6%. Consequently, we forecast only a slightly higher growth in passenger car sales of 4.5% in 2015 growing from a very low base.
BMI maintains our bearish view on the country's manufacturing and construction sectors which will weigh on demand for light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and heavy trucks into 2015. In 2014, some relief to the commercial vehicle (CV) segment has come on the back of pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in the market and low base effects from a moribund 2013. As a result we estimate sales growth to reach 15% and 3% for the LCV and heavy truck segments respectively.
However, the ongoing weakness and growing overcapacity in the manufacturing sector, made worse by weakening fixed investment incentives due to low external demand and poor credit availability, will weigh on CV demand in 2015. We forecast slower growth in the LCV and heavy truck segments in 2015, reaching only 3.0% and 0.7% respectively.
BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive. In 2014, we expect...
The Italy Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Italy Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Italy.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Italian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.