Vehicle sales in Italy declined 7.6% in 2013 to 1.4mn units on the back of a weak macro environment. This came from a 7.0% drop in passenger car sales and 13.3% fall in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2014, we expect to see a resurgence across the market due to low base effects and pent-up demand and accordingly forecast 3.3% growth in vehicle sales over the year.
BMI forecasts 3% growth in passenger car sales in 2014 as improvements in consumer sentiment filter through to the autos sector. Moreover, pent-up demand in the market from sustained declines has buoyed sales over the year-to-date, and low base effects from weak sales in 2013 have provided a further boost.
BMI maintains our bearish view on the country's manufacturing and construction sectors, although some relief to the CV segment is likely to come on the back of pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in the market and low base effects from a moribund 2013. BMI forecasts a 7% increase in the LCV segment and a 3% increase in heavy truck sales. We believe that the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector will weigh on sales in the latter part of the year.
BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive. In 2013 (the latest figures at the time of writing), passenger car production decreased 2.1%, to 388,465 units. This was chiefly due to Fiat's low output levels on the back of weak sales figures in its primary European markets. CV production dropped 1.9% over the year. In 2014, we expect to see a 2% increase in passenger car output in Italy, and a 5.7% increase in CV output. This is on the back of a modest resurgence in European sales, low base effects from a relatively poor 2013, and pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines.
The Italy Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Italy Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Italy.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.