Vehicle sales in Italy over the first 10 months of 2014 grew 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.27mn units. This recovery in sales emerged alongside a marginally brighter macroeconomic environment in Italy compared to the recessionary 2013 period. In 2014, we expect this resurgence across the market to continue as low base effects and pent-up demand take hold. Accordingly, we forecast 3.8% growth in vehicle sales over the year.
BMI forecasts 3% growth in passenger car sales in 2014 as improvements in consumer sentiment during the year filter through to the autos sector. However, though consumer sentiment had shown signs of recovery toward the end of H114, our Country Risk team highlights that consumer spending is likely to remain stagnant going into 2015. While we do expect private consumption growth to enter positive territory in 2015, it will remain at a sluggish 0.6%. Consequently, we forecast only a slightly higher growth in passenger car sales of 4.5% in 2015 growing from a very low base.
BMI maintains our bearish view on the country's manufacturing and construction sectors which will weigh on demand for light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and heavy trucks into 2015. In 2014, some relief to the commercial vehicle (CV) segment has come on the back of pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in the market and low base effects from a moribund 2013. As a result we estimate sales growth to reach 15% and 3% for the LCV and heavy truck segments respectively.
However, the ongoing weakness and growing overcapacity in the manufacturing sector, made worse by weakening fixed investment incentives due to low external demand and poor credit availability, will weigh on CV demand in 2015. We forecast slower growth in the LCV and heavy truck segments in 2015, reaching only 3.0% and 0.7% respectively.
BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive. In 2014, we expect...
The Italy Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Italy Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Italy.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Italian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.