Business Monitor International


Italy Autos Report

Published 02 June 2014

  • 64 pages
 
$1,295.00
Italy Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Italy declined 7.6% in 2013 to 1.4mn units on the back of a weak macro environment. This came from a 7.0% drop in passenger car sales and 13.3% fall in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2014, we expect to see a resurgence across the market due to low base effects and pent-up demand and accordingly forecast 3.3% growth in vehicle sales over the year.

BMI forecasts 3% growth in passenger car sales in 2014 as improvements in consumer sentiment filter through to the autos sector. Moreover, pent-up demand in the market from sustained declines has buoyed sales over the year-to-date, and low base effects from weak sales in 2013 have provided a further boost.

BMI maintains our bearish view on the country's manufacturing and construction sectors, although some relief to the CV segment is likely to come on the back of pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in the market and low base effects from a moribund 2013. BMI forecasts a 7% increase in the LCV segment and a 3% increase in heavy truck sales. We believe that the ongoing weakness manufacturing sector will weigh on sales in the latter part of the year.

BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive. In 2013 (the latest figures at the time of writing), passenger car production decreased 2.1%, to 388,465 units. This was chiefly due to Fiat's low output levels on the back of weak sales figures in its primary European markets. CV production dropped 1.9% over the year. In 2014, we expect to see a 2% increase in passenger car output in Italy, and a 5.7% increase in CV output. This is on the back of a modest resurgence in European sales, low base effects from a relatively poor 2013, and pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sales
13
Table: Italy Auto Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
13
Production
15
Table: Italy Auto Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
15
Trade
16
Table: Italy Auto Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
16
Passenger Vehicles
18
Sales
18
Table: Italy Passenger Car Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
18
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand
20
Production
21
Table: Passenger Car Production By Brand
22
Used Cars
23
Table: Used Car Sales By Brand
23
Table: Average Age of Cars
24
Industry News
26
Commercial Vehicles
28
Table: Italy Commercial Vehicle Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
28
Industry News
32
Motorcycles
33
Table: Italy Motorcycle Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
33
Suppliers
34
Segment News
34
Macroeconomic Forecast
36
Macroeconomic Forecast
36
Table: Italy - Economic Activity
42
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
46
Company Profile
48
Company Monitor
48
Increasingly Standardised Production
48
Buoyed By Premium Growth
48
Expanding In Emerging Europe
49
Electric Intentions
50
Corporate Bonds
50
Fiat
51
Regional Overview
53
Europe Overview
53
Global Industry Overview
59
Table: Passenger Car Sales, Units, 2012
59
Japan To Contract, But US Safe (For Now)
60
Europe Over The Worst-
61
Even Russia Will Hit The Brakes
63
Demographic Forecast
66
Demographic Outlook
66
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
67
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
68
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
69
Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
69
Methodology
70
Automobile Industry
71
Sources
71

The Italy Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Italy Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Italy.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Italian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Italian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Italy.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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