Business Monitor International


Italy Agribusiness Report

Published 25 February 2014

  • 103 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Italy Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for the Italian agribusiness sector has turned more bearish, as dry conditions in Europe, high operating costs and bleak economic prospects have taken a toll on the grains, dairy and livestock sectors. Our long-held view has favoured the grains segment over rice, and we expect conditions to be particularly favourable for wheat and corn over the forecast period to 201 8 . We expect poultry and cheese to outperform, mainly bolstered by the expected economic recovery, change s in consumption habits and opportunities for expansion into export markets.

Key Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth to 2016/17: - 2.8 % to 7.5mn tonnes. Production is expected to decline only slightly over our forecast period - a result of base effects as well as lower prices and weather concerns in 2013/14. Production will recover in the last years of our forecast period as prices stay elevated by historical standards, driven by growing demand for food and biofuels.

  • Cheese consumption growth to 2017: 20.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. Per capita cheese consumption, at 28.1kg, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than in northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK. Still, we see room for additional growth over the coming years.

  • Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 10.4% to 1.4mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat; as such, we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 0.4 % year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with an estimated -1.8% in 2013.

  • 2014 consumer price index: 0.9% average, slightly lower than 1.1% in 2013.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.7% y-o-y decline to US$54.7bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 0.2% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

A Grain Of Hope
Italy - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

We are maintaining our estimate for EU wheat production to come in around 137mn tonnes in 2013/14, as production improves on the back of improved...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
16
Dairy Outlook
18
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
21
Livestock Outlook
23
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
27
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Commodities Price Analysis
30
Monthly Softs Update
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
42
Monthly Grains Update
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
51
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
52
Upstream Analysis
53
Europe GM Outlook
53
Europe Machinery Outlook
59
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
65
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
65
Downstream Analysis
71
Food
71
Food Consumption
71
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
71
Confectionery
71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
72
Canned/Prepared Food
72
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
73
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
73
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
74
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
77
Meat, Fish And Dairy
79
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
80
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
82
Drink
85
Soft Drinks
85
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
85
Alcoholic Drinks
86
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Mass Grocery Retail
87
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
88
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type, %
89
Regional Overview
90
Table: EU Farm Size Statistics In 2007
94
Competitive Landscape
96
Table: Main Companies In Italy's Agribusiness Sector
96
Demographic Forecast
97
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
98
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
99
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
100
Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
100
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Sector-Specific Methodology
102

The Italy Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Italy.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Italy Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc