Business Monitor International


Italy Agribusiness Report

Published 21 November 2014

  • 103 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Italy Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for the Italian agribusiness sector has turned more bearish, as dry conditions in Europe, high operating costs and bleak economic prospects have taken a toll on the grains, dairy and livestock sectors. Our long-held view has favoured the grains segment over rice, and we expect conditions to be particularly favourable for wheat and corn over the forecast period to 201 8 . We expect poultry and cheese to outperform, mainly bolstered by the expected economic recovery, change s in consumption habits and opportunities for expansion into export markets.

Key Forecasts

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 27.5% to 10.2mn tonnes. Production is expected to rise on low base effects and in spite of low corn prices by historical standards.

  • Cheese consumption growth to 2018: 20.4% to 1.8mn tonnes. Per capita cheese consumption, at 28.1kg, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than in northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK. Still, we see room for additional growth over the coming years.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 10.4% to 1.4mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat; as such, we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 0.4 % year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with an estimated -1.9% in 2013.

  • 2014 consumer price index: 0.8% average, slightly lower than 1.3% in 2013.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.2% y-o-y decline to US$48.7bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 0.7% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

Industry Developments

Italian food company Barilla has significantly improved its financial position in recent years and is well placed to expand its pasta and bakery businesses. Following the challenging acquisition of German baker Kamst and the subsequent decision to sell part of the group to Czech company Agrifert in 2013, the company has significantly reduced its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Agribusiness
7
Business Environment
8
Industry Forecast
9
Grains Outlook
9
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
10
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
19
Rice Outlook
20
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
21
Dairy Outlook
22
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
25
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
26
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
26
Livestock Outlook
26
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
29
Table: Changes To Agricultural Supports Post-WTO Accession
32
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
38
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
38
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
38
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Softs Strategy
39
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
50
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
50
Monthly Grains Strategy
51
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
59
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
60
Upstream Analysis
61
Europe GM Outlook
61
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
65
Europe Machinery Outlook
70
Downstream Analysis
74
Food
74
Food Consumption
74
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
74
Confectionery
74
Table: Confectionery Value And Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
75
Canned/Prepared Food
75
Table: Canned Food Value And Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
76
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
76
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
77
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
80
Meat, Fish And Oils & Fats
81
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
81
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
83
Table: Oils & Fats Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
84
Drink
87
Soft Drinks
87
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Alcoholic Drinks
88
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
89
Mass Grocery Retail
89
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2010-2017
90
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type
90
Trade
91
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
91
Competitive Landscape
92
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
92
Demographic Forecast
93
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
94
Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
95
Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
96
Table: Italy's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
96
Methodology
97
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
97

The Italy Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Italy.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Italy Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc