Business Monitor International


Israel Petrochemicals Report

Published 29 January 2014

  • 83 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Israel Petrochemicals Report

The extent to which the Israeli petrochemicals industry will benefit from growth will depend on the sector's competitiveness. Growth in natural gas production, with the beginning of production in the Tamar gas field, will provide an opportunity to reduce feedstock costs of an industry that is currently dependent on naphtha feedstock supplied by local refineries , according to BMI 's latest Israel Petrochemicals Report.

Falling domestic consumption has hit the domestic chemicals, plastics and rubber industries. Plastics and rubber output fell by 0.6% y-o-y in 10M13 while chemicals production exhibited growth of 2.0%. While chemicals output showed an overall increase in output in 2013, much of this growth was concentrated in Q113.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

  • We downgraded our construction industry growth forecast for Israel in 2013 from 6.2% to 2.4% and this was reflected in a downturn in plastics, which include polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other plastic products used in construction. As a whole, the industrial sector contracted in 2013 with knock-on effects for petrochemicals products.

  • Naphtha costs will be crucial over the medium-term. The theoretical surplus between supply and demand in the global oil market will grow over the coming years, precipitating a decline in the price of oil and a corresponding decline in naphtha feedstock costs. However, naphtha prices will remain at historical highs while ethane costs, particularly in the US, are set to decline. For Israel's relatively small, naphtha-fed petrochemicals industry, this could lead to a squeeze on margins in the long-term.

  • We project real GDP in Israel to expand by 3.2% in 2014, compared to growth of 3.2% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013. The robust economic recovery has increased capacity utilisation in manufacturing firms and could lead to purchases of new plants.

  • In BMI's MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, Israel remains in sixth place...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Israel's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2018 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
13
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Economic Analysis
15
Table: Israel - GDP By Expenditure
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q214
25
Israel Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Market Overview
27
Table: Israel's Petrochemical Sector - Cracker Capacity, ('000 tpa) 2010-2018
28
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Upstream
30
Company Profile
31
Oil Refineries Ltd (ORL)
31
Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)
34
Regional Overview
36
Middle East And Africa Overview
36
Looking To Asia
36
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
37
African Growth Focused In The North
39
Global Industry Overview
41
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
41
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
43
Long-Term Growth
43
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
45
Threats To growth
48
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
48
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
48
Methodology
51
Crude Price Forecasts
52
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
52
Oil Product Price Forecasts
52
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
53
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
54
Weak Demand Persists
55
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
56
Quarterly Prices
60
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
60
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
61
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
63
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
69
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
71
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
71
Risks To Outlook
73
Demographic Forecast
74
Demographic Outlook
74
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
75
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
76
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
77
Table: Israel's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
77
Glossary
78
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
78
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
81
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
82
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
83

The Israel Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Israel Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Israeli petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc