Business Monitor International


Israel Petrochemicals Report

Published 26 November 2014

  • 83 pages
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$1,295.00
Israel Petrochemicals Report

BMI View:   Increasing exports underpin our relatively bullish medium-term outlook that will support growth in the petrochemicals industry and overcome a weak patch seen in 2014, according to BMI 's latest Israel Petrochemicals Report .

In the first seven months of 2014, Israeli rubber and plastic production declined 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) with improvements in performance seen in Q1 cancelled out in following months. Petroleum and chemical products output also declined 3.0% over the period, although the rate of decline has moderated in recent months.

The declines were in line with reduced economic performance that was significantly influenced by the government's conflict with Hamas. BMI estimates GDP growth of 2.5% in 2014. On the upside, slow growth in the market is likely to be short-lived with GDP growth of 3.6% growth in 2015 helping to buoy up petrochemicals consumption. Consumer confidence in Israel will pick up gradually in 2015, in line with our view that an improved macroeconomic environment will lead to increased consumer spending. A moderation of austerity policies coupled with increasing exports will support output.

  • We have revised down our forecast for Israel's 2014 real GDP growth due to the recent conflict with Hamas and now project the economy to expand by 2.5% this year and 3.6% the next. A moderation of austerity policies and increasing exports underpin our positive medium-term outlook for the year ahead. The medium-term outlook is also favourable. We forecast real GDP growth averaging more than 3.5% over the 2015-19 period. This should help support chemicals and plastics production with the domestic market increasingly taking the leading in Israel petrochemicals industry sales.

  • In 2014, Israel's petrochemicals industry included capacities of 450,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 345,000tpa propylene, 125,000tpa benzene, 230,000tpa xylenes, 165,000tpa polyethylene (PE), 450,000tpa polypropylene (PP), 160,000tpa polyvinyl...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Israel's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2018 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
13
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Table: Israel - Economic Activity
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314
23
Israel Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Market Overview
25
Table: Israel's Petrochemical Sector - Cracker Capacity, ('000 tpa) 2010-2018
26
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Upstream
27
Company Profile
30
Oil Refineries Ltd (ORL)
30
Israel Chemicals Ltd (ICL)
34
Regional Overview
37
Middle East And Africa Overview
37
Looking To Asia
38
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
40
African Growth Focused In The North
40
Global Industry Overview
44
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
47
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
48
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
49
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
50
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
50
Gasoline
52
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
52
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
53
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
54
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
57
Risks To Outlook
60
Diesel
60
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
61
New York's One-Off Heat Up
61
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
64
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
68
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
70
Risks To Outlook
74
Jet Fuel
75
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
75
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
75
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
77
Risks To Outlook
80
Bunker fuel
81
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
81
The Storm Clears For Shipping
82
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
84
Long-Term Threats Linger
85
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
87
Risks To Outlook
87
Demographic Forecast
89
Demographic Outlook
89
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
90
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
91
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
92
Table: Israel's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
92
Glossary
93
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
93
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
96
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
98

The Israel Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Israel Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Israeli petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc