Business Monitor International


Israel Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 June 2014

  • 83 pages
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$1,295.00
Israel Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Gas production from the Tamar field is expected to r amp up considerably since coming online in March 2013 and will mak e Israel self-sufficient in natural gas supplies for the first time ever. We expect stagnation in production growth through to 2015 as bottlenecks at the onshore receiving facility at Ashdod will limit production to 10.5bcm. This should be resolve d by 2016 in sufficient time to take output from the Leviathan field where development will begin in mid-2014. Gas from Leviathan could flow from late 2018 with export opportunities increasingly likely from this point. We see comparatively strong liquids upside with growing condensate volumes from Tamar and eventually L eviathan. Furthermore, near shore licences are showing greater likelihood of condensate and oil providing upside for the oil reserves outlook.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel's oil and gas sector:

  • In October 2013 the Israeli Supreme Court upheld the government's decision to retain 60% of proven reserves for domestic use. Other groups were petitioning for a complete ban on exports. This decision also recommends the Tamar field to be used purely for domestic needs, while will allow up to 75% of Leviathan's reserves to be exported.

  • Development of the Leviathan field will be delayed by as much as one year due to the slow progress on the government's move to push through export allowances. Development, which could have begun in 2013, will now begin in mid-2014 with first production expected in 2018.

  • The Tamar natural gas field entered production in March 2013 at approximately 8.4mn cubic metres/day (3bcm annually) with ramp-up to a peak of 27.6mn bcm/day (10.1bcm). Our 2013 gas production estimate for Israel is 6.86bcm, a conservative average to factor in declining volumes from Mari-B and the ramp up (though not full) from Tamar.

  • We have revised our gas production forecast due to bottlenecks at the Ashdod receiving terminal...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Israel Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Israel Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
13
Table: Israel Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
13
Table: Israel Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Israel Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Israel Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Continued Discoveries Further Lift Outlook
22
Refining And Oil Products Trade
26
Table: Israel Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
26
Table: Israel Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
30
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
31
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
34
Israel - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Market Overview
38
Israel Energy Market Overview
38
Overview/State Role
38
Table: Noble And Delek Dominate Israeli Oil Fields
39
Government Policy
39
International Energy Relations
40
Table: Israel - Recent Offshore Discoveries
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
42
Oil Refineries
42
Oil Pipelines
42
Gas Storage
42
Gas Pipelines
44
Competitive Landscape
46
Competitive Landscape Summary
46
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
47
Company Profile
48
Noble Energy
48
Other Summaries
53
Regional Overview
59
Middle East Energy Market Overview
59
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Oil Output
59
OPEC: Major Hurdles Ahead
64
Consuming It All
66
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
68
Global Industry Overview
72
Global Energy Market Overview
72
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
74
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
75
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
76
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
78
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
78
Appendix
81
Middle East - Regional Appendix
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
84
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
85
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
86
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Israel - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
88
Table: Israel Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
88
Table: Israel Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
90
Table: Israel Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
91
Table: Israel Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
92
Table: Israel Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
93
Table: Israel Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
93
Glossary
95
Table: Glossary Of Terms
95
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Source
99
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
99
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
101
Table: Weighting
102

The Israel Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Israel including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Israel Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Israel to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Israeli oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc