Business Monitor International


Israel Freight Transport Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 85 pages
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$1,295.00
Israel Freight Transport Report

There is a mixed outlook for Israel's freight transport sector in 2014. Although we forecast moderate growth in the rail and air freight sectors - which follows three years of declining volumes in the air freight sector - the two major Israeli ports of Ashdod and Haifa look set to see their throughput decline. This view is predicated on the back of disappointing H1 data and the risks to their business through industrial action by workers protesting about the development of two new privately operated ports adjacent to the existing facilities. Further to the risk posed by business developments, the volatile situation in Gaza offers serious risk to our macroeconomic forecasts for the country, and so also to our freight transport projections.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 air freight growth is forecast at 1.4% following a decline of 3.0% in 2013; we project average growth of 1.8% per annum to 2018.

  • 2014 Port of Haifa tonnage throughput is forecast to decline by 7.0%. We forecast that the facility will return to growth in 2015 at 3.5%, though this will be insufficient to recoup lost volumes.

  • 2014 rail freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 4.4%, and to average 3.4% to 2018.

  • Total trade growth in real terms in 2014 is forecast to grow 2.5% and average 3.4% to 2018.

Key Industry Trends

CAL Acquires Freighters To Accommodate Large Cargo: Israel-based air freight firm  CAL Cargo Air Lines has entered an agreement to dry lease a B747-400F freighter and buy a B747-400ERF. The B747-400F will be introduced to CAL's fleet in September and the B747-400ERF is scheduled to begin services two months later. The two freighters will fly non-stop to destinations in South America and the Far East.

Zim Completes Debt Restructuring Process: Zim Integrated Shipping Services concluded its comprehensive debt restructuring process on July 16, according to a company press release. Under the plan backed by the company's lending banks, shipowners and bondholders, about USD1.4bn of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight (Israel 2011-2018)
17
Rail Freight
17
Table: Rail Freight (Israel 2011-2018)
19
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight (Israel 2011-2018)
22
Trade
22
Table: Trade Overview (Israel 2011-2018)
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Israel 2011-2018)
23
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
24
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2012
24
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Air Freight
29
Maritime Freight
29
Company Profile
31
El Al Israel Airlines
31
Zim Integrated Shipping Services
34
Political Outlook
40
Domestic politics
40
Long-Term political outlook
44
Table: Israel Political Overview
50
Oil Price Outlook
52
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
52
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
52
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
54
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
58
Risks To Outlook
59
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
60
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
60
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
65
Risks To Outlook
66
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
67
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
67
Supply Keeps Market Down
67
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
69
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
70
Risks To Outlook
73
Macroeconomic Forecasts
74
Economic Analysis
74
Table: Economic Activity (Israel 2009-2018)
79
Demographic Forecast
80
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
81
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
82
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
83
Table: Israel's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
83
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sector-Specific Methodology
85
Sources
86

The Israel Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Israel Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Israel to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc