BMI View: This quarter, BMI has utilised the latest operator and regulator data to fine-tune our forecasts. As such, we expect to see slightly stronger mobile subscription growth and slower contraction of the fixed-line market. We hold to our current outloo k for modest growth in the broadband market on the back of eircom 's progress with its next-generation access network, the rollout of 4G LTE services and potential consolidation in the mobile market, as well as the entrance of Electricity Serv ices Board (ESB) into t he mass market broadb and services arena. That said, we expect price competition to intensify across all sectors, including pay-TV, following eircom's launch of eVision-branded IPTV in Q413.
At the end of 2013 there were 5.626mn mobile subscriptions in Ireland, including mobile broadband and M2M subscriptions. Total mobile subscriptions decreased by 0.2% this quarter while mobile broadband subscriptions declined by 2.8%.
We estimate that market wide ARPUs recovered slightly to EUR27.2 in Q413, but expect them to drop to EUR25.3 by the end of 2014. However, we forecast that they will recover slightly over the long term, as 3G and 4G penetration rises towards the end of our forecast period to 2018.
Key Trends & Developments
In January 2014, Electricity Supply Board (ESB) received regulatory approval to build and operate a fibre-optic next generation access network capable of delivering high-speed broadband services to more than 500,000 homes and offices across rural Ireland. While BMI welcomes any initiatives aimed at extending broadband access to Ireland's underserved rural communities, and argue that ESB is better placed than most telecoms operators to do that, we believe the partially state-owned utility will struggle to generate a return on its EUR400mn investment.
ESB will roll out a fibre-to-the-building (FTTB) network that will directly connect 500,000 premises via electricity cable pylons, poles and...
The Ireland Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ireland's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Ireland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ireland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ireland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Irish telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Ireland's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ireland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.