Business Monitor International


Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 23 June 2014

  • 70 pages
 
$1,295.00
Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: We anticipate further cuts to healthcare spending to come in the coming months, in the wake of an EU Commission report citing public healthcare expenditure in Ireland as one of the highest in Europe. This will have a knock-on effect on government pharmaceutical expenditure, and means that companies operating in the country will fac e ongoing revenue - restricting measures . Meanwhile, we believe the worst of the pharmaceutical patent cliff is over, as the sector profits from wider economic recovery in Europe and the US, and expect Irish pharmaceutical entities to be the subject of considerable M&A interest from US-based companies over the near term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.10bn (USD2.77bn) in 2013 to EUR2.01bn (USD2.69bn) in 2014; -4.3% in local currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: EUR13.00bn (USD17.16bn) in 2013 to EUR13.04bn (USD17.48bn) in 2014; 0.3% in local currency terms and 1.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast downwardly revised from previous quarter.

Risk/Reward Ratings

We have again ranked Ireland as 14th out of the 15 key markets in Western Europe in terms of its attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. We have slightly downgraded the country's aggregate RRR score for Q314, to 60.00 from 62.0 in the previous quarter. We maintain that it is a less attractive prospect than Italy, and ranks slightly higher only than the struggling market of Portugal, as it was previously overtaken by Spain and Italy in our ratings reassessment in Q114.

Key Trends And Developments

  • We see M&A potential in Irish equities such as Shire and Perrigo as they address the growth concerns of acquirers, have attractive drug development portfolios and operate in segments of the market that are the subject of considerable consolidation activity. Shire's positioning as an innovative, R&D-driven company with specialty in rare diseases and neuroscience is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
13
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2010-2018)
14
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2010-2018)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2010-2018)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2010-2018)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2010-2018)
20
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
20
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2010-2018)
21
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
21
Table: Top 20 Export Companies In 2012
22
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Ireland 2012-2018)
23
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Ireland 2012-2018)
24
Other Healthcare Data
24
Table: Ireland Other Healthcare Indicators
24
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
26
Economic Analysis
26
Table: Ireland - Economic Activity
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Ireland Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Market Overview
39
Industry Trends And Developments
41
Epidemiology
41
Healthcare Sector
42
Health Insurance
44
Research And Development
45
Clinical Trials
46
Regulatory Development
47
Regulatory Regime
47
Regulatory Developments
48
Intellectual Property Issues
49
Reimbursement Regime
49
Pricing Regime
51
Competitive Landscape
55
Pharmaceutical Sector
55
Domestic Industry
55
Foreign Industry
57
Table: Pharmaceutical Companies In Ireland
60
Pharmaceutical Distribution
61
Demographic Forecast
62
Demographic Outlook
62
Table: Ireland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
63
Table: Ireland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
64
Table: Ireland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
65
Table: Ireland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
65
Glossary
66
Methodology
68
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
68
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
68
Notes On Methodology
69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
70
Ratings Overview
71
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
71
Indicator Weightings
72

The Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Ireland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Ireland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Irish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ireland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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