Business Monitor International


Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 15 October 2014

  • 78 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:

The long-term prospects for the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare markets remain promising given rising healthcare expenditure as well as further population growth. The Iraqi government has reportedly pledged to invest USD12bn into healthcare expansions in 2014, and the Ministry of Health recently awarded 18 health project contracts worth USD276mn. However, the projected growth of Iraq's pharmaceutical market in 2014 and 2015 is linked to an oil-driven economic expansion, which is dependent on the government's ability to represent and appease the country's factions. In the short term, numerous factors, however, will continue to hamper market growth such as expected further political unrest with accompanying high level of violence and even the possibility of a partition of the country.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IQD1,573bn (USD1.35bn) in 2013 to IQD1,756bn (USD1.51bn) in 2014; +11.6% in local currency and +11.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower than in Q314. 

  • Healthcare: IQD9,701bn (USD8.33bn) in 2013 to IQD10,562bn (USD9.08bn) in 2014; +8.9% in local currency and +9.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast again higher vis-a-vis Q314 due to macroeconomic conditions.

Risk/Reward Rating

Iraq's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q414 reflects the market's potential and its strong economic growth prospects. It performs better in terms of Rewards than Risks. In Q414 Iraq scores 42.0 out of 100, making it the 16th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and African region. While its score has slightly increased, the country's position is unchanged from Q314.

Key Trends And Developments

On September 8, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a former finance minister and vice president, was appointed oil minister in Iraq's new government, reports Reuters. The minister faces several challenges ahead, such as resolving disputes over Kurdish oil production and dispelling the fears of foreign investors about Islamic...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2010-2018)
22
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
23
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2018)
24
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Iraq 2012-2018)
24
Other Healthcare Data
25
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Iraq: Growth Forecasts Revised Downward
29
Table: Economic Activity (Iraq 2009-2018)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Index
34
Iraq Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Industry Trends And Developments
45
Epidemiology
45
Healthcare Sector
48
Healthcare Funding
49
Healthcare System Reform
51
Healthcare Infrastructure
52
Clinical Trials
53
Regulatory Development
54
Regulatory Regime
54
Intellectual Property Issues
56
Pricing Regime
57
Reimbursement Regime
58
Competitive Landscape
59
Pharmaceutical Sector
59
Pharmaceutical Company Developments
61
Pharmaceutical Distribution
62
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
62
Company Profile
63
Samarra
63
Ninewa
65
GlaxoSmithKline
67
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: Iraq's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
70
Table: Iraq's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
71
Table: Iraq's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
72
Table: Iraq's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
72
Glossary
73
Methodology
75
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
75
Notes On Methodology
76
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
77
Ratings Overview
78
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
78
Indicator Weightings
79

The Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Iraq Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc