Business Monitor International


Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Published 04 March 2014

  • 132 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iraq Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While the start of major upstream projects over in the coming quarters highlights Iraq's potential, volatile production, a challenging security situation and unresolved issues with the Kurdistan region underscore the country's challenges. Although we expect strong growth in both oil and gas output over the course of our forecast period, we expect delays and setbacks to continue, causing production to underperform in light of the country's raw potential. A resolution to the political situation between Baghdad and Erbil will be a key challenge to achieving production targets and long-term growth, particularly with new export infrastructure from Kurdistan to Turkey in place.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • Escalation of instability has partially impacted exploration and production efforts as spillover from the conflict in Syria is impacting western Iraq. While most of the oil production is in the more secure southern and northern regions of Iraq, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been a major target for insurgents, being attacked 54 times in 2013. This considerably restrained Iraq's production output to Turkey, and will likely continue to be targeted as the Syrian conflict shows few signs of ending.

  • Kurdistan appears to have completed a 300,000 barrel per day (b/d) pipeline connecting its oil fields to Turkey. The pipeline by-passes the Baghdad controlled monitoring station in Fishkabur. In January 2014 a packet of oil was sent to the storage facility at Ceyhan in Turkey, with the Turkish energy minister confirming the arrival of 425,000 barrels (bbl). Baghdad has threatened to take legal action against any purchaser of the oil, which has seen it unsold as of the time of writing. We do not believe companies or countries are willing to take the risk of buying this oil without the approval of Baghdad, due to potential retribution through blacklisting or expulsion from contracts in Iraq.

  • With export...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Iraq Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2012-2017
11
Table: Iraq Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2018-2023
12
Table: IEA 2012 Remaining Recoverable Resources Iraqi Gas Fields (bn barrels)
14
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Iraq Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Iraq Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Iraq Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Iraq Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
23
Gas Supply And Demand
28
Table: Iraq Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
28
Table: Iraq Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
29
Risks To Outlook
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
40
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
42
Iraq - Risk/Reward Rating
43
Market Overview
45
Iraq Energy Market Overview
45
Overview/State Role
47
Government Policy
48
Licensing Rounds
52
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
52
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
54
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
57
International Energy Relations
59
Table: Iraq - Upstream Project Database
62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
64
Oil Refineries
64
Table: Iraqi Refineries
65
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
66
Oil Terminals/Ports
67
Oil Pipelines
67
Gas Pipelines
69
Competitive Landscape
71
Competitive Landscape Summary
71
Company Profile
74
Other Summaries
74
Regional Overview
91
Middle East Energy Market Overview
91
Consuming It All
97
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
99
Global Industry Overview
104
Appendix
111
Middle East - Regional Appendix
111
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2022 (bcm)
115
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
115
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
116
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
116
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
117
Iraq - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
117
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
117
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
118
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
120
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
121
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
122
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
123
Glossary
124
Table: Glossary Of Terms
124
Methodology
126
Industry Forecast Methodology
126
Source
128
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
128
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
130
Table: Weighting
132

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc