Business Monitor International


Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 June 2014

  • 132 pages
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$1,295.00
Iraq Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: T he ramp-up of major upstream projects over in the coming quarters will boost output in Iraq , though a challenging security situation and unresolved issues with the Kurdistan region will cause volatility in exports . Although we forecast strong growth in both oil and gas output over the next ten years , we expect delays and setbacks to continue, causing production to underperform in light of the country's raw below-ground potential. A resolution to the political situation between Baghdad and Erbil will be a key challenge to achieving production targets and long-term growth, particularly with new export infrastructure from Kurdistan to Turkey in place and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline offline.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • Iraqi elections took place of April 30 and our Middle East Country Risk team believe al-Maliki will win a third consecutive term. We anticipate a long period of coalition building over much of the remainder of 2014, leading to reduced political capital with which to deal with the substantial challenges facing Iraq's upstream.

  • Spillover from the conflict in Syria continues to impacting western Iraq. While most of the oil production is in the more secure southern and northern regions of Iraq, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been a major target for insurgents and unrepaired damage has seen exports stopped since March 2. This has reduced Iraq's oil export capacity by as much as 500,000b/d.

  • The KRG has installed a 300,000b/d pipeline connecting oilfields in Kurdistan to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, independent of a Baghdad-controlled monitoring station. According to a Turkish minister the pipeline has been moving around 100,000b/d of oil to storage facilities at Ceyhan and the 2.5mn barrel capacity allocated for Iraqi oil has reached capacity. However, Baghdad has threatened to take legal action against any company or country involved in purchasing oil from Kurdistan,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Iraq Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2012-2017
11
Table: Iraq Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2018-2023
12
Table: IEA 2012 Remaining Recoverable Resources Iraqi Gas Fields (bn barrels)
14
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Iraq Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Iraq Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Iraq Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: Iraq Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
23
Gas Supply And Demand
28
Table: Iraq Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
28
Table: Iraq Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
29
Risks To Outlook
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
36
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
37
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
40
Iraq - Risk/Reward Rating
42
Market Overview
43
Iraq Energy Market Overview
43
Overview/State Role
43
Government Policy And The Political Situation
43
Licensing Rounds
47
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
47
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
49
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
52
International Energy Relations
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
58
Oil Refineries
58
Table: Iraqi Refineries
59
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
60
Oil Terminals/Ports
61
Oil Pipelines
61
Gas Pipelines
63
Competitive Landscape
65
Competitive Landscape Summary
65
Company Profile
67
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
85
Middle East Energy Market Overview
85
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Oil Output
85
OPEC: Major Hurdles Ahead
90
Consuming It All
92
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
94
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Energy Market Overview
98
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
100
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
101
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
102
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
104
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
104
Appendix
107
Middle East - Regional Appendix
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Iraq - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
114
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
114
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
115
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
116
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
117
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
118
Table: Iraq Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
119
Glossary
121
Table: Glossary Of Terms
121
Methodology
123
Industry Forecast Methodology
123
Source
125
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
125
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
127
Table: Weighting
128

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc