Business Monitor International


Iraq Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 September 2014

  • 132 pages
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$1,295.00
Iraq Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   The escalation of the security situation in Iraq has been detrimental to the progress of the country and significantly impacted its future oil and gas growth prospects. Gas projects in the west and north have been cancelled or suspended due to violence, while major oil and gas companies have delayed expansion projects and evacuated non-essential staff.   As a result we have revised down our long-term oil production forecast.

Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2018)
  2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,995.3 3,039.5 3,403.0 3,817.3 3,981.5 4,123.8 4,165.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 512.7 522.9 548.0 559.0 570.2 581.6 599.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 751.2 691.8 698.7 719.7 744.1 769.4 795.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 4.1 6.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 4.1 5.3
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

  • The destabilising impact of Islamic State (IS) militants in Iraq has significantly worsened the security situation and hit investor confidence.

  • The Turkish, Kuwaiti, Korean consortium developing the Mansouriya gas field has suspended operations due to regional unrest. Kogas is also looking to sell its share in the Akkas project in Anbar.

  • Major oil and gas firms have evacuated non-essential staff from both southern Iraq and the region of Kurdistan as violence continues to be a threat. The development of the Halfaya, West-Qurna-1, West-Qurna-2, Majnoon, Zubair and Rumalia fields are all phased, and we expect the next stages to be delayed until a clearer picture of Iraq's future is formed.

  • Accordingly, we have revised our long-term forecast down....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iraq 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iraq 2018-2023)
11
Table: IEA 2012 Remaining Recoverable Resources Iraqi Gas Fields (bn barrels)
13
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Iraq Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2012-2017)
17
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2018-2023)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
23
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2012-2017)
23
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2018-2023)
23
Refining
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2012-2017)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2018-2023)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2012-2017)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2018-2023)
30
Gas Consumption
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2012-2017)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2018-2023)
32
Trade - Oil
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2012-2017)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2018-2023)
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2012-2017)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2018-2023)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iraq 2012-2017)
38
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iraq 2018-2023)
39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2012-2017)
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2018-2023)
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
43
Outperforming The World Upstream
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
44
Limited Opportunities Downstream
48
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
48
Iraq - Risk/Reward Rating
49
Market Overview
51
Iraq Energy Market Overview
51
Overview/State Role
51
Politics And Kurdistan Regional Government Exports
51
Licensing Rounds
54
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009)
55
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009)
57
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010)
59
International Energy Relations
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
65
Oil Refineries
65
Table: Iraqi Refineries
66
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq
67
Oil Terminals/Ports
68
Oil Pipelines
68
Gas Pipelines
70
Competitive Landscape
72
Competitive Landscape Summary
72
Company Profile
74
Other Summaries
74
Regional Overview
92
Industry Forecast
92
Middle East Oil Production - Strong Growth But Risks Remain
92
Middle East Oil Consumption - Subsidies Fuelling Demand
94
Middle East Refining Capacity - A Bullish Outlook
95
Middle East Gas Production - A Growing Domestic Priority
96
Middle East Gas Consumption - Demand Growth Outstripping Production
97
Global Industry Overview
99
Global Energy Market Overview
99
Appendix
105
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
105
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
105
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
106
Middle East - Regional Appendix
108
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Iraq - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
115
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2012-2017)
115
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2018-2023)
115
Iraq - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iraq 2012-2017)
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iraq 2018-2023)
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iraq 2012-2017)
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iraq 2018-2023)
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iraq 2012-2017)
120
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iraq 2018-2023)
121
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2012-2017)
122
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iraq 2018-2023)
123
Glossary
124
Table: Glossary Of Terms
124
Methodology
126
Industry Forecast Methodology
126
Source
128
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
128
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
130
Table: Weighting
131

The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc