BMI View : We have moved to substantially lower our construction industry real growth forecasts for Iraq's construction industry over our 10-year forecast period . Following v iolence in Anbar province early in 2014, a major threat to the country's stability has emerged in the form of Islamic State (IS), who now controls swathes of the country's north and west. While threat to Iraq's vital oil industry is still minimal, the ongoing political infighting within the Iraqi government following elections and the subsequent fai lure to deal with the IS threat present a serious risk to Iraq's future.
Key Development: We have significantly downgraded our forecasts for growth in Iraq's construction industry, from an annual average of 7.3% over our 10-year forecast period to 2023, to 5.2%.
Both the 2013/14 and 2014/15 national budgets have been expansionary, with investment expenditure set to make up the majority of spending; infrastructure and housing account for the largest share. However, as of July 2014 there is still no functioning government in Baghdad following elections in April 2014. If and when a functioning government is formed, its priority will be dealing with the threat posed from IS, not necessarily passing of the federal budget.
Endemic problems such as corruption, a lack of institutional capacity and poor technical ability severely dent growth. To address these endemic problems the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning are looking to tackle the issue of low execution rates by making those with a rate of less than 25.0% liable for questioning by the parliament and the council of ministries. While such moves are encouraging for the construction sector, we believe the government's lack of control over local agencies and bureaucratic bottlenecks will impede the progress of development projects during the forecast period.
The energy and utilities sector, industrial construction for the oil and gas industry and housing continue to be the...
The Iraq Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Iraq Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iraqi infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).
Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.