Business Monitor International


Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 September 2014

  • 111 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   BMI continues to adjust its forecasts for Iran's pharmaceutical market to account for the sanction-induced currency crisis and high rates of inflation. The rapid depreciation of the rial means that we expect the value of the market to contract sharply in US dollar terms. While improved international relations have reduced the regulatory risk associated with operating in the market for multinational drugmakers , the recent proclamation of the Islamic State (IS) in neighbouring Iraq and Syria increases the threat of political instability .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IRR44,216bn (USD2.46bn) in 2013 to IRR51,750bn (USD1.72bn) in 2014; +17.0% in local currency terms and -29.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: IRR550,491bn (USD16.68bn) in 2013 to IRR643,639bn (USD21.45bn) in 2014; +16.9% in local currency terms and +28.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

BMI's considers Iran's business environment to be slightly less appealing than in the previous quarter, with a score of 41.5 out of 100 in Q414, down from 42.7 in Q314. The country fell three places in the regional rankings to 17th out of 30 countries in the Middle East and Africa region in Q414. Its overall score is below the regional average of 42.8, which itself registered an improvement this quarter. Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property (IP) rights, political and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs above the regional average for potential rewards and below the regional average in terms of risk.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Iran's Bayer Aflak Pharmaceutical Factories Company commenced commercial production of veterinary medicines in June 2014, according to Fars News Agency. The plant is capable of manufacturing veterinary penicillin, syrup and sterile ointment....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2010-2018)
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
24
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
25
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Iran 2012-2018)
29
Other Healthcare Data
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Table: Iran - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Iran Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
45
Market Overview
47
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: HIV/AIDS Prevalence In Iran
51
Healthcare Sector
52
Healthcare Insurance
54
International Healthcare Collaboration
55
Traditional Herbal Remedies
56
Research & Development
57
Biotechnology
58
Clinical Trials
60
Regulatory Development
61
Intellectual Property Regime
63
Counterfeit Medicines
64
Pricing And Reimbursement
65
Competitive Landscape
67
Pharmaceutical Sector
67
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
68
Table: Leading Drug Manufacturers, Iranian Year To March 20, 2009
68
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
72
Table: Leading Distributors, Iranian Year To March 20 2008
72
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
73
Company Profile
74
Darou Pakhsh
74
Caspian Tamin Pharmaceutical Company
77
Pharmieco
80
Pars Darou
82
Zahravi Pharmaceutical Company
84
Amin Pharmaceutical Company
87
Sina Darou Pharmaceutical Company
89
Exir Pharmaceuticals
91
Novartis
93
Merck & Co
95
Pfizer
97
GlaxoSmithKline
99
Sanofi
101
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
104
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
105
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
106
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
106
Glossary
107
Methodology
109
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
109
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
109
Notes On Methodology
110
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
111
Ratings Overview
112
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
112
Indicator Weightings
113

The Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc