The Iranian petrochemicals industry is set to receive a major boost in exports, putting up a major challenge to its Arabian Gulf rivals. However, BMI's latest Iran Petrochemicals report warns that the country will continue to struggle with feedstock disruptions, a difficult investment environment and continued uncertainty, which could see production significantly undershooting full operational capacity over the medium term.
Iran and the so-called P5+1 countries - China, France, Russia, the UK, the US and Germany - reached an understanding on the implementation of a deal reached in November 2013 on Iran's nuclear programme. The accord started a six-month timetable to reach a final agreement on the nuclear programme, a period which could be extended a further six months by mutual consent. Sanctions on Iran's petrochemical exports and on imports of goods and services for its auto sector will also be suspended. Core energy and banking sanctions will remain in place. However, the US will put on hold efforts to further reduce Iran's exports of oil to the six nations still purchasing its crude.
Exports are crucial to the Iranian petrochemicals industry, as the domestic market, which is currently in a slump, is unable to absorb the rapid increase in production capacity. Iran exported petrochemicals worth US$8.12bn in the period March-November 2013 with China, Iraq, the UAE and India as the prime destinations, according to the Iran Customs Administration. The country exported methanol worth US$877mn and urea worth of US$866mn, but no further details were revealed on aromatics and polymers exports.
The domestic economy will play an increasingly significant role in the Iranian petrochemicals industry growth scenario. We project Iran's economy to expand by 2.8% and 3.4% in real terms in 2014 and 2015, respectively, from our estimate of a 3.5% contraction in 2013. Growth should stimulate domestic petrochemicals consuming industries with the automotive industry, although a...
The Iran Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Iran Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.