Business Monitor International


Iran Petrochemicals Report

Published 29 January 2014

  • 90 pages
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$1,295.00
Iran Petrochemicals Report

The Iranian petrochemicals industry is set to receive a major boost in exports, putting up a major challenge to its Arabian Gulf rivals. However, BMI's latest Iran Petrochemicals report warns that the country will continue to struggle with feedstock disruptions, a difficult investment environment and continued uncertainty, which could see production significantly undershooting full operational capacity over the medium term.

Iran and the so-called P5+1 countries - China, France, Russia, the UK, the US and Germany - reached an understanding on the implementation of a deal reached in November 2013 on Iran's nuclear programme. The accord started a six-month timetable to reach a final agreement on the nuclear programme, a period which could be extended a further six months by mutual consent. Sanctions on Iran's petrochemical exports and on imports of goods and services for its auto sector will also be suspended. Core energy and banking sanctions will remain in place. However, the US will put on hold efforts to further reduce Iran's exports of oil to the six nations still purchasing its crude.

Exports are crucial to the Iranian petrochemicals industry, as the domestic market, which is currently in a slump, is unable to absorb the rapid increase in production capacity. Iran exported petrochemicals worth US$8.12bn in the period March-November 2013 with China, Iraq, the UAE and India as the prime destinations, according to the Iran Customs Administration. The country exported methanol worth US$877mn and urea worth of US$866mn, but no further details were revealed on aromatics and polymers exports.

  • The domestic economy will play an increasingly significant role in the Iranian petrochemicals industry growth scenario. We project Iran's economy to expand by 2.8% and 3.4% in real terms in 2014 and 2015, respectively, from our estimate of a 3.5% contraction in 2013. Growth should stimulate domestic petrochemicals consuming industries with the automotive industry, although a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Iran's Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2018 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Table: Iran - Economic Activity
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Iran Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q214
28
Market Overview
29
Table: Iran's Cracker Capacity, 2012-2018 ('000 tpa)
31
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Current plans
35
Privatisation
38
Company Profile
40
National Petrochemical Company
40
Regional Overview
43
Middle East And Africa Overview
43
Looking To Asia
43
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
44
African Growth Focused In The North
46
Global Industry Overview
48
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
48
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
50
Long-Term Growth
50
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
52
Threats To growth
55
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
55
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
55
Methodology
58
Crude Price Forecasts
59
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
59
Oil Product Price Forecasts
59
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
60
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
61
Weak Demand Persists
62
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
63
Quarterly Prices
67
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
67
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
68
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
70
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
76
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
78
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
78
Risks To Outlook
80
Demographic Forecast
81
Demographic Outlook
81
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
82
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
83
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
84
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
84
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
88
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
89
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
90

The Iran Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Iran Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc