Business Monitor International


Iran Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 December 2014

  • 118 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Despite a small increase in oil production and exports following the Geneva Interim Agreement, a more significant increase of Iranian crude production and exports can only result from an easing or lifting of international sanctions. In such a situation , a significant ramp-up in production and exports to pre-sanction levels would take (at the very least) three to four years from when sanctions are lifted. Years of underinvestment, maturing oil fields and a lack of field and well maintenance has damaged fields, destroying some of the country's production capacity. Gas production will continue to grow, with further development of South Pars phases . Despite strong growth, limited access to capital and technology will still prevent production from accelerating sufficiently to meet demand . This will translate into gas shortages

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,594.4 3,307.7 3,436.5 3,453.1 3,469.8 3,486.7 3,523.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,760.0 1,800.0 1,803.6 1,803.6 1,803.6 1,875.7 1,950.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,790.0 1,790.0 1,825.8 1,834.9 1,853.3 1,881.1 1,918.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 159.7 162.6 182.1 192.1 211.3 221.9 230.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 155.3 158.9 178.0 188.6 207.5 217.9 226.6
f = forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • Iran holds the fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves in the world. Given the maturity of the country's fields, the replenishment of oil reserves remains an important issue. A vast majority of gas reserves in the country remain undeveloped, a situation which will endure in a context of continued...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
OIl & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iran 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Iran 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2012-2017)
17
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2018-2023)
17
Table: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances
20
Table: Selection Of Upstream Projects
22
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2012-2017)
24
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2018-2023)
24
Table: South Pars Project Phases
26
Refining
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2012-2017)
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2018-2023)
28
Table: Iran Refineries
29
Table: Planned Greenfield Refineries
32
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2018-2023)
34
Gas Consumption
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2012-2017)
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2018-2023)
37
Trade - Oil
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2012-2017)
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2018-2023)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2012-2017)
44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2018-2023)
44
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iran 2012-2017)
46
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Iran 2018-2023)
46
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2012-2017)
47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2018-2023)
47
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
52
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
52
Outperforming The World Upstream
53
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
53
Limited Opportunities Downstream
57
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
57
Iran - Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Iran - Overview
59
Iran Upstream Rating - Rewards
59
Iran Upstream Rating - Risks
59
Iran Downstream Rating - Overview
59
Market Overview
60
Iran Energy Market Overview
60
Overview/State Role
60
Licensing And Regulation
60
Government Policy
61
International Energy Relations
62
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil And Gas Sector
73
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
73
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
73
Oil Refineries
73
Table: Refineries In Iran
73
Service Stations
75
Oil Storage Facilities
75
Oil Terminals/Ports
75
Oil Pipelines
76
LNG Terminals
77
Gas Pipelines
77
Gas Storage
83
Competitive Landscape
84
Competitive Landscape Summary
84
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil And Gas Sector
85
Company Profile
86
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
86
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
92
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
95
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
97
Other Summaries
99
Regional Overview
102
Industry Forecast
102
Middle East Oil Production - Strong Growth But Risks Remain
102
Middle East Oil Consumption - Subsidies Fuelling Demand
104
Middle East Refining Capacity - A Bullish Outlook
105
Middle East Gas Production - A Growing Domestic Priority
106
Middle East Gas Consumption - Demand Growth Outstripping Production
107
Global Industry Overview
109
Global Energy Market Overview
109
Appendix
115
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
115
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
115
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
116
Middle East - Regional Appendix
118
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
123
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
123
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
124
Iran - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iran 2012-2017)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Iran 2018-2023)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iran 2012-2017)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Iran 2018-2023)
128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iran 2012-2017)
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Iran 2018-2023)
130
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2012-2017)
131
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2018-2023)
131
Iran - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
132
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2012-2017)
132
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Iran 2018-2023)
132
Glossary
134
Table: Glossary Of Terms
134
Methodology
136
Industry Forecast Methodology
136
Source
138
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
138
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
140
Table: Weighting
141

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc