Business Monitor International


Iran Oil & Gas Report

Published 14 October 2014

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : Despite a small increase in oil production and exports following the Geneva Interim Agreement, a more significant increase of Iranian crude production and exports can only result from an easing or lifting of international sanctions. In such a situation , a significant ramp-up in production and exports to pre-sanction levels would take (at the very least) three to four years from when sanctions are lifted. Years of underinvestment, maturing oil fields and a lack of field and well maintenance has damaged fields, possibly permanently , destroying some of the country's production capacity. Gas production will continue to grow slowly. However, similarly to oil, a lack of access to capital and technology will prevent production from   accelerating sufficiently to meet surging demand. This will translate into gas shortages.

Headline Forecasts (Iran 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,594.4 3,307.7 3,436.5 3,446.6 3,460.0 3,473.6 3,487.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,760.0 1,800.0 1,803.6 1,803.6 1,803.6 1,875.7 1,950.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,790.0 1,790.0 1,825.8 1,834.9 1,853.3 1,914.4 1,971.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 159.7 162.6 168.3 174.1 178.5 183.0 187.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 155.3 158.9 164.5 170.2 174.5 178.8 183.3
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • Iran holds the fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves in the world. Given the maturity of the country's fields, the replenishment of oil reserves remains an important issue. A vast majority of gas reserves in the country remain undeveloped, a situation which will endure in a context of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Iran - Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Iran - Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Reserves
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Iran - Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Iran - Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Table: Selection Of Upstream Projects
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Iran Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Iran Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
22
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Iran - Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
25
Table: Iran - Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
25
Increasing Demand For Domestic Gas
27
Looming Shortages As South Pars Development Struggles
28
Table: South Pars Project Phases
28
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
34
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
36
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
38
Iran - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Iran - Overview
40
Iran Upstream Rating - Rewards
40
Iran Upstream Rating - Risks
40
Iran Downstream Rating - Overview
40
Market Overview
41
Iran Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
41
Licensing And Regulation
41
Government Policy
42
International Energy Relations
43
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil And Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
Oil Refineries
54
Table: Refineries In Iran
55
Service Stations
58
Oil Storage Facilities
58
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
Oil Pipelines
59
LNG Terminals
60
Gas Pipelines
60
Gas Storage
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Competitive Landscape Summary
67
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil And Gas Sector
68
Company Profile
69
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
69
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
75
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
78
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
80
Other Summaries
82
Regional Overview
85
Middle East Energy Market Overview
85
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Oil Output
85
OPEC: Major Hurdles Ahead
90
Consuming It All
92
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
94
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Energy Market Overview
98
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
100
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
101
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
102
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
104
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
104
Appendix
107
Middle East - Regional Appendix
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Iran - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
114
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Production, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
114
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Production, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
115
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
116
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
117
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
118
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
119
Glossary
121
Table: Glossary Of Terms
121
Methodology
123
Industry Forecast Methodology
123
Source
125
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
125
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
127
Table: Weighting
128

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc