Business Monitor International


Iran Oil & Gas Report

Published 02 April 2014

  • 118 pages
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$1,295.00
Iran Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : The November 2013 interim nuclear deal reached in Geneva has rightly been hailed as a significant development in the negotiations between Iran and the West, and marks a further improvement in the Islamic Republic's international position since the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in June 2013. However, it is crucial to note that the agreement does not lift sanctions on Iran's oil exports and does not allow for additional Iranian oil sales. Any significant easing of the oil export ban would only come as part of a broader, final settlement, which would be at a minimum 6-12 months away. For the moment therefore , the Iranian hydrocarbon s sector remains largely impaired due to the ongoing sanctions. In terms of gas, we believe that Iran will not be able to increase production sufficiently to satisfy mounting domestic gas demand. This will translate into increasing gas shortages. Meanwhile, Iran is claiming a succession of major oil and gas discoveries that, if proven, demonstrate considerable upside potential to its existing resource base. In a bid to secure much-needed investment, Iran is offering improved terms to contracts long seen as uncompetitive by operators, but few national oil companies are likely to bite as long as sanctions are upheld.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

  • The country's oil reserves have increased in the past two years. In 2013, Iran's oil reserves were estimated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 155.5bn barrels (bbl), a 1.1% increase from the 2012 figure of 151.1bn bbl. Iranian oil production and exports have fallen substantially since 2011, on the back of ever-tightening sanctions against the current Iranian government. We estimate that crude (including lease condensates) production in 2013 fell by around 23% from 2011 levels, from 4.05mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, to 3.13mn b/d in 2013.

  • The International Energy Agency estimates that crude...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Iran - Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Iran - Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Iran - Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Iran - Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Table: Selection Of Upstream Projects
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Iran Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: Iran Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
23
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Iran - Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
25
Table: Iran - Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
26
Increasing Demand For Domestic Gas
27
Looming Shortages As South Pars Development Struggles
28
Table: South Pars Project Phases
28
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
34
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
36
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
38
Iran - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Iran - Overview
40
Iran Upstream Rating - Rewards
40
Iran Upstream Rating - Risks
40
Iran Downstream Rating - Overview
40
Market Overview
41
Iran Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
41
Licensing And Regulation
41
Government Policy
42
International Energy Relations
43
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil And Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
Oil Refineries
54
Table: Refineries In Iran
55
Service Stations
58
Oil Storage Facilities
58
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
Oil Pipelines
59
LNG Terminals
60
Gas Pipelines
60
Gas Storage
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Competitive Landscape Summary
67
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil And Gas Sector
68
Company Profile
69
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
69
National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company (NIORDC)
75
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
78
ONGC Videsh (OVL)
80
Other Summaries
82
Regional Overview
84
Middle East Energy Market Overview
84
Consuming It All
90
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
92
Global Industry Overview
97
Global Energy Market Overview
97
Appendix
105
Middle East - Regional Appendix
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2022 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
110
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
111
Iran - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
112
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Production, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
112
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Production, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
113
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
114
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
115
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
116
Table: Iran Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
117
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Source
123
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
125
Table: Weighting
127

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc