Business Monitor International


Iran Metals Report

Published 22 October 2014

  • 40 pages
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$1,295.00
Iran Metals Report

The outlook for Iran's metals sector is improving for the first time years as sanctions begin to be eased following negotiations with the Western powers. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed it happens, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term. We note with scepticism, Iran's plans to increase its steel capacity from 20mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 55mntpa by 2025, as well as a tripling of aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.

While a cut in external trade has impacted negatively on the steel industry, isolation has ensured that imports have also been restricted. However, domestic industrial deficiencies in certain market segments mean that Iran will struggle to meet its own needs in spite of declining consumption. Crude steel output rose 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 13.27mn tonnes in the first 11 months of 2013, representing one of the strongest growth rates in the world, rivalling Turkey's.

Growth Slowing, But Still Elevated
Iran - Steel Output

Nevertheless, due to infrastructural problems and a lack of billet and rebar capacity, the country is still dependent on imports to serve the market, mostly from Turkey. Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing of steel products has slowed markedly, with existing crude steel capacities unable to sufficiently supply to downstream industries and therefore exacerbating the dependence on imported supplies. Weak points remain, with flats demand coming under pressure as automotive output suffers from declining domestic demand. Over the medium term Iran will be reliant on exports at a time when it is becoming harder to sell on external markets.

Iranian trade has been affected by international sanctions, with the country having to manoeuvre strategically to meet domestic demand and maintain the robust production growth seen a few years ago. We  forecast that growth will remain robust in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Steel: Modest Growth Despite Sanctions
10
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Iran 2010-2018)
13
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Iran 2005-2012)
14
Regulatory Development
15
Corruption
15
Tax Regime
15
Table: Iran - Political Overview
15
Commodities Forecast
17
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
17
Short-Term Outlook
17
Core View
18
Surplus Set To Slim
18
Production: Reining In Growth
19
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
21
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
23
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
23
Risks To Price Outlook
24
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
25
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
25
Commodity Strategy
27
Ferrous Metals:
27
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
27
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
28
Non-Ferrous Metals:
30
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
30
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
31
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
32
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
33
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
34
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
38
Competitive Landscape
39
Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2013)
39
Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers
41
Company Profile
43
Mobarakeh Steel Company
43
Methodology
45
Cross Checks
45

The Iran Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Iran.

BMI's Iran Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Iran.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iran metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Iran through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc