Business Monitor International


Iran Infrastructure Report

Published 02 September 2014

  • 82 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We forecast that real growth in the Iranian construction industry will pick up momentum in the short- to medium term, with growth forecast to average 4.2% over the next five years. While this is highly dependent on the outcome from negotiations with the West over the nuclear programme, the market is already showing signs of recovery and interest from international firms is on the rise.

The Islamic Republic remains a country of pronounced risks, including political instability, economic challenges and social tensions, and we believe the current situation is unsustainable in the long term. Despite elevated oil prices, US energy sanctions and the EU oil embargo have affected Iranian oil production and consequently the economy at large. With the oil and gas industry accounting for an estimated 70% of the country's total exports, the government has been forced to cut public spending, with a devastating impact on infrastructure development.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Although we estimate construction industry growth to have been as low as 0.5% in 2013, we expect the industry to pick up momentum in the short- to medium term, growing at an average rate of 4.2% over the next five years.

  • A 'permanent' agreement between the P5+1 countries and Iran on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme will not be reached in 2014. Significant technical and political challenges remain, but we expect nuclear talks will continue through 2015.

  • Our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP growth of 3.2% and 2.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, from a 2.9% contraction in 2013. The return to growth will be the result of improving relations with the West, more effective macroeconomic management and low base effects.

  • In the residential sector, we believe that housing prices will remain relatively elevated over the coming quarters, largely a result of a lack of appropriate housing units. Although we are confident that the current administration will succeed in encouraging...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Infrastructure SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2012-2017)
8
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iran 2018-2023)
9
Key Trends And Developments
11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
15
Major Projects Table - Transport
20
Table: Major Projects Table - Transport
20
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
24
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
29
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
29
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Middle East And North Africa - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: MENA Infrastructure Risk / Reward Ratings
44
Market Overview
46
Competitive Landscape
46
Table: Iran EQS Data
47
Company Profile
48
Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co
48
Global Industry Overview
51
Middle East/North Africa Presents Strongest Investment Profile
51
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sector-Specific Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Iran Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Iran Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Iranian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc