Business Monitor International


Iran Freight Transport Report

Published 09 June 2014

  • 97 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Freight Transport Report

Our outlook for the Iranian freight transport sector in 2014 is that the country will begin to see a return to growth in volumes, in part due to base effects, and in part due to the more moderate stance adopted by new President Rouhani, and the loosening of sanctions against the country. Although the ports and shipping continue to face significant challenges, rail freight continues to see strong investment. That said, it will take time for the Iranian economy to recover, and consumption levels will remain depressed for some time.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 port of Bandar Abbas throughput is forecast to return to growth at 5.6%, and to average 6.5% to 2018.

  • 2014 road freight volumes forecast to grow by 2.6% and are projected to average 3.9% over the forecast period to 2018.

  • 2014 rail freight tonnes-km is forecast to grow by 1.5%, and is projected to average 2.1% growth per annum over the forecast period to 2018.

  • 2014 air freight tonnes-km is forecast to grow by 1.6% and to average growth of 1.8% a year to 2018.

  • 2014 total trade is forecast to experience a real growth of 6.0% in 2014, and average 2.5% to 2018.

Key Industry Trends

Ambitious Transport Plans To Drive Investment: Our increasingly positive view on Iran's infrastructure industry has been reinforced by a series of recent announcements. We have long highlighted the potential for transport infrastructure growth and the municipality of Tehran recently announced a USD10bn investment plan for the next five years. In addition, we have been following developments in industrial construction, particularly those connected to the oil and gas sector.

International Container Services To Resume At Shahid Rajaee: Iran-based Tidewater Middle East Company, operator of the Iranian port of Shahid Rajaee, will resume its international container services at the port on July 20. The move comes after EU sanctions against the operator were eased, which prohibited any EU person or entity from making direct or...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Rail Freight
16
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2011-2018)
18
Road Freight
19
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2011-2018)
20
Air Freight
21
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2011-2018)
22
Maritime
23
Table: Maritime Freight (Iran 2011-2018)
25
Trade
26
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2011-2018)
26
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2011-2018)
26
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012
27
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
28
Market Overview
30
Industry Trends And Developments
37
Rail Freight
37
Maritime Freight
38
Road Haulage
39
Company Profile
40
Iran Air Cargo
40
Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
43
NITC
46
Political Outlook
49
Foreign Policy
49
Table: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances
52
Table: Syria: Long-Term Scenarios
56
Long-Term Political Outlook
59
Challenges And Threats To Stability
60
Table: Iran Political Overview
65
Oil Price Outlook
66
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
66
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
66
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
68
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
72
Risks To Outlook
73
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
74
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
74
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
79
Risks To Outlook
80
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
81
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
81
Supply Keeps Market Down
81
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
83
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
84
Risks To Outlook
87
Macroeconomic Forecasts
88
Economic Analysis
88
Table: Possible Scenarios As Diplomacy Advances
94
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2009-2018)
94
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sector-Specific Methodology
100
Sources
101

The Iran Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc