Business Monitor International


Iran Freight Transport Report

Published 04 March 2014

  • 97 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Freight Transport Report

Our outlook for the Iranian freight transport sector in 2014 is that the country will begin to see a return to growth in volumes, in part due to base effects, and in part due to the more moderate stance adopted by new President Rouhani, and the loosening of sanctions against the country. Although the ports and shipping continue to face significant challenges, rail freight continues to see strong investment.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 port of Bandar Abbas throughput is forecast to return to growth at 3.1%, and to average 6.0% to 2018.

  • 2014 road freight volumes forecast to grow by 4.6% and are projected to average 7.1% over the forecast period to 2018.

  • 2014 rail freight tonnes-km is forecast to grow by 1.8%, and is projected to average 2.4% growth per annum over the forecast period to 2018.

  • 2014 air freight tonnes-km is forecast to grow by 1.6% and to average growth of 1.8% a year to 2018.

  • 2014 total trade is forecast to experience a real growth of 2.0% in 2014, and average 1.9% to 2018.

Key Industry Trends

Easing Of Sanctions Provides Limited Upside For Exports: Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh's comments in November 2013 that Iran does not expect to raise its oil exports in the immediate term is in line with our view that despite the recent agreement, any significant easing of the oil export ban would only come as part of a broader, final settlement, which would be at a minimum six to 12 months away. However, the deal offers a measure of optimism whereby several international companies are reportedly discussing with Iranian officials a potential return of investments should the sanctions be relieved. In addition, we note that the deal could provide an easing of the ban on European shipping insurance for Iranian oil. This could result in a slight increase of oil exports from Iran to major customers like India and South Korea to at least the level permitted under current the sanctions regime.

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
17
Road Freight
17
Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018
18
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
20
Maritime
20
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
22
Trade
22
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
22
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
24
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012
25
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
25
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Rail Freight
32
Road Freight
32
Maritime Freight
32
Company Profile
36
Iran Air Cargo
36
Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
39
NITC
42
Political Outlook
46
Foreign Policy
46
Table: KEY TERMS OF THE NOVEMBER 24 DEAL
46
Table: POSSIBLE SCENARIOS & POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS DIPLOMACY ADVANCES
50
Table: BMI AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS FORECASTS, US$/bbl
50
Long-Term Political Outlook
52
Challenges And Threats To Stability
53
Table: Iran Political Overview
58
Oil Price Outlook
60
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
60
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
60
Methodology
62
Crude Price Forecasts
63
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
63
Oil Product Price Forecasts
63
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
64
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
65
Weak Demand Persists
66
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
66
Quarterly Prices
70
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
70
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
71
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
73
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
79
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
81
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
81
Risks To Outlook
83
Macroeconomic Forecasts
84
Economic Analysis
84
Table: IRAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
90
Demographic Forecast
91
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
92
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
93
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
94
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
94
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sector-Specific Methodology
96
Sources
97

The Iran Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Iran Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc