Business Monitor International


Iran Defence & Security Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 106 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Defence & Security Report

The report examines the trends in Iran's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that, despite the domestic and diplomatic respite President Hassan Rouhani's tentative engagement with the US and the West may bring, Iran faces extreme economic and security challenges. Primarily, the fact that Israel has rejected the ongoing international overtures to Tehran means Iran is still at risk (albeit unlikely) of a unilateral strike from Israel. Other risks partly stem from Iran's controversial nuclear programme and also from its unpopular support for the Assad regime in Syria. International sanctions have gutted Iran's oil exports, which have now sunk to less than half of their usual level. However, given the improvement in international relations caused by Iran's engagement with West, BMI has revised the real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and is projecting an improved performance in real terms in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 2.4% growth. Iran's economy will return to growth in 2014, as improving relations with the West and better macroeconomic management, coupled with low base effects, will lead to an improved outlook for exports and increased business and consumer confidence.

Given this tangible benefit from a military detente with the West, Iran's leadership − subject to the veto of its ideologically led Supreme Leader − may be pragmatically weighing up the supposed benefits of continuing its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The US hopes that this extreme economic pressure, combined with the build-up of military assets in the region, will encourage Iran to continue with the tentative diplomatic steps seen over the last quarter. This has somewhat stymied Israeli hawks' enthusiasm for a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

This report tackles several defence issues from the last quarter and contains a number of revised forecasts/views, including:

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Iran Security SWOT
9
Iran Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Industry Forecast
17
Defence Expenditure
17
Table: Iran Defence Expenditure, (2012-2018)
18
Table: Iran Expenditure Scenario (2012-2018): Changing % Of Government Expenditure (US$mn), 2012-2018
19
Armed Forces
19
Table: Iran Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated), 2001-2010
21
Table: Iran Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated), 2010-2017
21
Defence Sector Production
21
Exports
22
Imports
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: Iran - Economic Activity
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
MENA Security Risk Ratings
30
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
30
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
31
Iran Security Risk Ratings
31
Market Overview
32
Iran Defence Market Overview
32
Arms Trade Overview
32
Armed Forces And Government Spending
33
Industry Trends & Developments
44
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
45
Arms Trade Overview
48
Iran Security Overview
50
Domestic Threats
50
Regional Threats
56
International Threats
60
Company Profile
62
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
62
Sukhoi
65
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
67
Aerospace Industries Organization
69
Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group
72
Defence Industries Organization
74
Iran Electronics Industries
76
Regional Overview
78
Middle East And Africa Security Overview
78
Global Industry Overview
93
Global Political Outlook
93
Table: Election Timetable, 2014
97
Methodology
102
Industry Forecast Methodology
102
Sector-Specific Methodology
103
Sources
104
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
104
Sector-Specific Methodology
104
Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
105
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
106

The Iran Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iranian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc