Business Monitor International


Iran Defence & Security Report

Published 20 May 2014

  • 106 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Iran Defence & Security Report

BMI View: We think that the country's nuclear activities will remain a point of contention with the international community for the years to come, and if a comprehensive deal is not signed now, we anticipate an escalation of tensions to unprecedented levels. Hard - line elements within the regime could be given new breeding ground s and Iran will return to producing medium enriched uranium. The U.S. Congress will adopt additional sanctions legislation that seeks to cut Iran completely off the from international oil markets.

The current crisis in Iraq has provided Iran with an advantage to fill the security vacuum left after the U.S. withdrawal. At the same time, it has worsened Iran's security within the region. Given Iran's catastrophic economic situation, it does not have the means, without placing itself in a position of military overstretch to prop up both Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria and the Shiite led government in Iraq. Hence, Iran will have to choose and it will choose Iraq given the deep ties between the two countries and Iraq's proximity to Iran's borders. For Iran, the US, and Saudi Arabia, the Islamic State (IS) is a common enemy, which provides an opportunity for regional cooperation. Further, neither Iran nor the US want the Kurd's to gain independence; both want the territorial integrity of Iraq maintained. Hence, the US is not necessarily opposed to Iran's involvement in Iraq. It would like to see Iran play a stabilising role without heightening ethnic rivalries. While, this remains a difficult card to play in the current environment, any involvement of Iran in Iraq is likely to result in US accusations that Iran continues to play a spoiler role across the region. Further, Iran's involvement will ultimately escalate further tensions with Saudi Arabia who has yet to come to the terms with the reality of a Shiite dominated government in Iraq.

The progress made to date with regards to international relations between Iran and the US is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Iran Security SWOT
9
Iran Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Industry Forecast
17
Defence Expenditure
17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Iran 2011-2018)
18
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Iran 2011-2018)
20
Armed Forces
21
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Iran 2004-2011)
21
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Iran 2011-2018)
22
Defence Sector Production
22
Exports
23
Imports
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Iran - Economic Activity
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Middle East And Africa - Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
31
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
32
Iran Security Risk Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
Iran Defence Market Overview
34
Armed Forces And Government Spending
35
Industry Trends & Developments
46
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
47
Arms Trade Overview
49
Iran Security Overview
51
Domestic Threats
51
Regional Threats
52
International Threats
53
Company Profile
54
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
54
Sukhoi
57
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
59
Aerospace Industries Organization
61
Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group
64
Defence Industries Organization
66
Iran Electronics Industries
68
Regional Overview
70
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
70
Global Industry Overview
86
Global Political Outlook
86
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sector-Specific Methodology
93
Sources
94
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
94
Table: Indicators And Weighting
95

The Iran Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iranian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc