Business Monitor International


Indonesia Telecommunications Report

Published 10 February 2014

  • 113 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Indonesia's telecoms market presents good growth opportunities due to its large and youthful population and extremely low broadband penetration rate. While the mobile industry generates low ARPUs in light of consumers ' preference for prepaid subscriptions, and strong competition among operators and from alternatives such as fixed-wireless technologies , operators are stepping up efforts to grow the nascent 3G market. However, although mobile data/VAS revenues are increasing, this is being offset by declining voice revenue.

Key Data

  • Indonesia's top three mobile operators - Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), Indosat and XL Axiata - recorded weak growth in Q213. Consequently, we have downgraded our mobile market forecasts. We now envisage 343.4mn subscribers by end-2018, up from 301.7mn at end-2013.

  • The heavy reliance on prepaid subscriptions is reflected by the top three mobile operators, all of which reported sharp sequential declines in blended ARPU in recent quarters. The increasing adoption of 3G services poses an upside risk to our ARPU forecasts, but as 3G services have now been widely available for several years and the boost to revenues and ARPUs has proven limited at best, we are not confident that this view will pan out.

  • The fixed-line and fixed broadband sectors continue to show weak growth and we do not foresee a reversal in the trend, given that consumers and businesses are clearly favouring the convenience of mobile solutions and the greater technological advancements.

Key Trends And Developments

The most notable development in H112 was the decision of Attorney General's Office (AGO) to fine IM2 - the internet subsidiary of Indosat - IDR1.36trn for allegedly acquiring part of the 3G spectrum held by its parent and without making the appropriate tax payments to the government. IM2, Indosat, the industry regulator and the government itself deny any sale took place and that, in any case, network sharing agreements are...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile SWOT
9
Wireline SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
15
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
18
Mobile
18
Table: Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2018
18
ARPU
19
Fixed Line
20
Table: Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018
20
Broadband
21
Table: Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2018
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q214
32
Market Overview
33
Mobile
33
Regional Perspective
33
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2012
34
Key Developments
34
Market Growth
35
Market Shares
36
Table: Indonesia Mobile Subscribers By Operator, Q213
38
Usage
39
Table: Indonesia Prepaid And Postpaid ARPU By Operator (IDR)
40
Table: Indonesian Mobile Operator Minutes Of Use
41
Networks
41
Table: 2
44
Mobile Content
45
Mobile Broadband
46
Mobile Operator Data
48
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview
48
Table: Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel)
48
Table: Indosat
50
Table: XL Axiata
51
Table: Bakrie Telecom (fixed-wireless)
53
Asia Pacific Mobile Content
55
Tablets Are The New TV
56
Table: Percentage Of Long-Form Video Views By Device
57
Infrastructure Is A Key Enabler
58
Wireline
60
Fixed Line
60
Table: Indonesia Fixed-Line Subscriber Growth ('000)
60
Table: Telkom Key Fixed-Line Network Developments
62
Broadband
62
Fixed Wireless
62
Industry Trends And Developments
68
Table: Market Developments
72
Regulatory Development
75
Regulatory Overview
75
Table: Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
76
Competitive Landscape
78
Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players
78
Table: Key Operator Revenues (US$mn)
78
Company Profile
79
Telkom
79
Telkomsel
85
Indosat
89
XL Axiata
95
Regional Overview
99
The Growth Challenges to Foxconn's Empire
99
Demographic Forecast
103
Demographic Outlook
103
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
104
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
105
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
106
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
106
Glossary
107
Table: Glossary Of Terms
107
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Sources
110
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
111
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
112
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
113

The Indonesia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Indonesia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Indonesia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc