Business Monitor International


Indonesia Power Report

Published 01 October 2014

  • 68 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Power Report

BMI View:   The Indonesian power sector will grow slower in 2014 than it has in the past five years, due to a slowing economy and higher electricity prices. We expect the country's electricity mix to change significantly over the long-term, and view the victory of Joko Widodo in the 2014 presidential elections as a risk to our forecasts.

We are forecasting electricity generation in Indonesia to grow by 6.3% in 2014. This is lower than the five-year historical average growth rate of 7.0%, which we attribute to slower economic growth and higher electricity prices. Our long-term growth forecasts for electricity generation in Indonesia are unchanged this quarter, with generation expected to grow an average of 6.5% per annum between 2014 and 2023. We highlight that the country's electricity mix is set to change significantly over our forecast period, with the share of oil-fired generation set to decrease significantly and the shares of coal and non-hydropower renewables power to grow considerably.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The Indonesian government has raised the price of electricity by 15% since the start of 2013. All four increments of 4.3% were implemented successfully in January, April, July, and October. 

  • On April 8, Indonesia's State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan announced plans to build a 2GW coal-fired power plant in Jakarta. This appears to be part of the government's plan to expand its second Fast Track Programme (FTP 2). State utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) had first highlighted the government's plan to increase the capacity of FTP 2 from 10GW to 17GW in June 2013. The government has removed electricity subsidies for large-scale industrial users. Electricity tariffs for businesses will be increased by either 38.9% or 64.7% depending on the power consumption of the businesses.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Indonesia Snapshot
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2013-2018)
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2018-2023)
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
9
Indonesia Power Forecast Scenario
10
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
10
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
11
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
13
Electricity Consumption
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
31
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Rating
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
36
Key Policies And Market Structure
36
Regulation and Competition
36
Sustainable Energy Policies
37
Pricing
38
Indonesia Power Projects Database
40
Table: Key Projects Database
40
Competitive Landscape
52
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
54
Central Java Power
55
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE)
55
Regional Overview
56
Asia Regional Overview
56
Table: Regional Electricity Generation Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
64
Glossary
66
Table: Glossary Of Terms
66
Methodology
67
Industry Forecast Methodology
67
Sources
70
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
70
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
73

The Indonesia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc