Business Monitor International


Indonesia Power Report

Published 08 December 2014

  • 68 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Power Report

BMI View:   Growth in the Indonesian power sector is set to accelerate in 2015. This is because several projects under the country's two Fast Track Programmes are due to come online, along with material changes to the country's business environment for power. These changes, initiated by recently elected President Joko Widodo, have also affected our long-term outlook for Indonesia's power, prompted us to revise up our long-term forecasts for the sector.

We forecast electricity generation in Indonesia to grow by 7.3% in 2015. This is slightly higher than the five-year historical average growth rate of 7.1%. The reasons for this outperformance are the progress made with the country's two Fast-Track Programmes (FTP) and the material changes to the business environment for power in 2015.We have revised up our long-term growth forecasts for electricity generation in Indonesia this quarter. This is due to material changes in Indonesia's business environment for power in 2015. We now expect generation to grow an average of 6.7% per annum between 2015 and 2023, up from our previous forecast of 6.5%.

Key Trends And Developments

  • On November 11, President Joko Widodo announced a new plan to build 35GW of power plants by 2020. State utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara is responsible for developing 15GW of plants and is scheduled to start construction in 2015

  • The Indonesian government has raised the price of electricity by 15% since the start of 2013. All four increments of 4.3% were implemented successfully in January, April, July, and October. 

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Indonesia Snapshot
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2013-2018)
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2018-2023)
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
9
Indonesia Power Forecast Scenario
10
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
10
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
11
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
13
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
22
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2017)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2018-2023)
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Asia Pacific Power Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Rating
31
Rewards
31
Risks
31
Market Overview
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
32
Regulation and Competition
32
Sustainable Energy Policies
33
Pricing
34
Indonesia Power Projects Database
35
Table: Key Projects Database
35
Competitive Landscape
48
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
50
Central Java Power
51
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE)
51
Regional Overview
52
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview
52
Table: Fact Box: Key Strategies Of Fourth Basic Energy Plan
54
Glossary
57
Table: Glossary Of Terms
57
Methodology
58
Methodology And Sources
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Indonesia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc