Business Monitor International


Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Published 02 September 2014

  • 175 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:  

Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 976.8 927.2 919.7 936.8 911.9 890.0 873.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 981.8 972.0 981.7 981.7 1,001.4 1,011.4 1,006.3
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 1,395.5 1,396.7 1,396.3 1,394.7 1,418.5 1,429.3 1,456.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 72.8 70.2 69.5 68.8 69.5 70.2 70.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 37.2 40.2 43.0 45.2 47.4 49.3 51.8
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

  • Without large projects to provide new crude oil output, crude oil production is expected to fall over our forecast period from 2014 to 2023.

  • We expect Indonesia's gas production to continue its downward trend in 2014 and 2015 but experience a turnaround from 2016, on the back of new major projects and also expectations that a more stable regulatory environment would allow long-stalled final investment decisions to move ahead. This will bring online large projects that will support the country's longer term production.

  • Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. There is considerable upside potential if its business environment improves.

  • Oil consumption could see a short-term contraction from a likely cut in fuel subsidies and a roll back of oil use for power generation. However, the economic growth that President-Elect Jokowi could bring about would prompt a recovery and even spur further rises in demand in the long-term.

  • There is much government support for new refining capacity and modernisation of existing plants to meet rising oil demand. However, we anticipate proposals to face...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Indonesia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Production, 2012-2017
10
Table: Indonesia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
14
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
16
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
18
Oil Supply And Demand
19
Table: Indonesia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Indonesia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products
23
Table: Indonesia Refining - Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Indonesia Refining - Production & Consumption
24
Gas Supply And Demand
27
Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2012-2017
27
Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2018-2023
28
LNG
33
Revenue/Import Costs
39
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
41
The Upstream Leaders
41
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
44
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Downstream Support
46
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Overview
52
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Rewards
52
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Risks
52
Indonesia Downstream Rating - Overview
52
Market Overview
54
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
54
Overview/State Role
56
Licensing And Regulation
57
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
62
Government Policy
63
Table: New Local Content Requirement
64
Licensing Rounds
66
Table: 2013 First Petroleum Licensing Round
67
Table: Results Of Second 2012 Licensing Round
68
Table: 2012 Second Licensing Round: Blocks On Regular Tender
69
Table: Indonesia Bids
70
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
72
Table: Proposed/Planned Capacity Expansion
72
Service Stations
77
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
77
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Tan Terminals In Indonesia
77
Oil Pipelines
79
LNG Terminals
79
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
80
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
83
Gas Pipelines
85
Competitive Landscape
88
Competitive Landscape Summary
88
Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
89
Table: Key Upstream Players
89
Table: Key Downstream Players
90
Company Profile
91
Pertamina
91
Chevron Indonesia
96
ExxonMobil Indonesia
100
BP Indonesia
104
CNOOC Indonesia
108
ConocoPhillips Indonesia
111
Total E&P Indonesia
115
Medco Energi
118
Eni Indonesia
122
Salamander Energy
126
Other Summaries
131
Regional Overview
138
Asia Overview
138
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
138
Tightening In The Downstream
142
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
146
A Hot Market For LNG
150
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
153
Global Industry Overview
155
Global Energy Market Overview
155
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
157
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
158
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
159
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
161
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
161
Appendix
164
Asia - Regional Appendix
164
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
164
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
165
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
166
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
166
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
167
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
168
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
169
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
170
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
171
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
171
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
172
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
173
Indonesia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
175
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
175
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
176
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
178
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
179
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
180
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
181
Glossary
183
Table: Glossary Of Terms
183
Methodology
185
Industry Forecast Methodology
185
Source
187
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
187
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
189
Table: Weighting
190

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc