Business Monitor International


Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 175 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:

The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast that oil and gas reserves will most likely be on a downward trend in the coming decade: oil reserves are expected to decrease from an estimate of 4.0bn barrels (bbl) of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.7bn bbl in 2018, falling further still to 3.4bn bbl by 2023. For gas, we expect reserves levels to be stagnant as addition from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancels out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to fall from 3.07tcm in 2013 to 2.9tcm in 2018, and fall further to 2.7tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.

  • Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coal-bed methane and shale gas.

  • We expect total liquids production (excluding refinery processing gains) to rise from an estimate of 913,000b/d in 2013 to 922,000b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming on-stream or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term we see oil output trending downwards to 859,000b/d in 2018 and hitting a low of 786,000b/d by 2023.

  • Despite grand plans to expand the country's refining capacity, difficulty in financing greenfield projects on top of modernising old plants in a unfavourable policy environment will see limited change to Indonesia's downstream landscape. We expect its refining capacity to stay stagnant at around 1.12mn b/d from 2015 through to the end of our forecast period. Total refined oil product output is expected to rise initially from an estimate of 972,000b/d in 2013 to 990,600b/d in 2016 - a result of an increase in output from modernised Cilacap and Balikpapan. However, growing...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Indonesia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
11
Table: Indonesia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
12
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
15
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
17
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
19
Oil Supply And Demand
20
Table: Indonesia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
20
Table: Indonesia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
21
Refining And Oil Products
24
Table: Indonesia Refining Production & Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
24
Table: Indonesia Refining Production and Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
25
Gas Supply And Demand
29
Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
29
Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
30
LNG
34
Revenue/Import Costs
37
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
40
The Upstream Leaders
40
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
42
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Downstream Support
44
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Overview
49
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Rewards
49
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Risks
49
Indonesia Downstream Rating - Overview
49
Market Overview
51
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
51
Overview/State Role
53
Licensing And Regulation
54
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
59
Government Policy
60
Licensing Rounds
62
Table: 2013 First Petroleum Licensing Round
63
Table: Results Of Second 2012 Licensing Round
64
Table: 2012 Second Licensing Round: Blocks On Regular Tender
65
Table: Indonesia Bids
66
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
67
Oil Refineries
67
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
68
Table: Proposed/Planned Capacity Expansion
69
Service Stations
74
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
74
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Tan Terminals In Indonesia
74
Oil Pipelines
75
LNG Terminals
76
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
77
Gas Pipelines
80
Competitive Landscape
83
Competitive Landscape Summary
83
Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
84
Table: Key Upstream Players
84
Table: Key Downstream Players
85
Company Profile
86
Pertamina
86
Chevron Indonesia
91
ExxonMobil Indonesia
95
BP Indonesia
99
CNOOC Indonesia
103
ConocoPhillips Indonesia
106
Total E&P Indonesia
110
Medco Energi
113
Eni Indonesia
117
Salamander Energy
121
Other Summaries
127
Regional Overview
135
Asia Overview
135
Gas Is Hot
135
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
138
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
139
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
141
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
144
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
147
Refining Woes
147
Global Industry Overview
151
Appendix
158
Asia - Regional Appendix
158
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
158
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
159
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
159
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
161
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
163
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
164
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
164
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
165
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
166
Glossary
167
Table: Glossary Of Terms
167
Methodology
169
Industry Forecast Methodology
169
Source
171
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
171
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
173
Table: Weighting
175

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc