Business Monitor International


Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 May 2014

  • 175 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:

The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

  • We expect oil reserves to continue its downward spiral, from 4.03bn bbl of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.7bn bbl in 2018, falling further still to 3.4bn bbl by 2023 at the current rate of production but without sufficient new resources to replace this. For gas, we expect reserves levels to be stagnant as addition from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancels out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to fall from 3.07tcm in 2013 to 3.01tcm in 2018, and fall further to 2.88tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.

  • Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coal-bed methane and shale gas.

  • We expect total liquids production (excluding refinery processing gains) to rise briefly from 913,200b/d in 2013 to 922,220b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming on-stream or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term we see oil output trending downwards to 858,140b/d in 2018 and hitting a low of 786,200b/d by 2023.

  • This quarter, we have factored in a new 300,000b/d refinery at Bontang into our forecasts. As such, we expect its refining capacity to stay stagnant at around 1.12mn b/d from 2015 through to 2019, before rising to 1.42mn b/d by 2023 from addition of the Bontang refinery. Total refined oil product output is expected to rise initially from an estimate of 981,840b/d in 2012 to 1.01mn b/d in 2018 - a result of an increase in output from modernised Cilacap and Balikpapan. This uptrend will now be sustained by new production volumes from Bontang, that could boost output to 1.24mn b/d by the end of our forecast...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Indonesia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Production, 2012-2017
10
Table: Indonesia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
14
Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
16
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
18
Oil Supply And Demand
19
Table: Indonesia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
19
Table: Indonesia Oil Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products
23
Table: Indonesia Refining - Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Indonesia Refining - Production & Consumption
24
Gas Supply And Demand
27
Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2012-2017
27
Table: Indonesia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports, 2018-2023
28
LNG
33
Revenue/Import Costs
39
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
41
The Upstream Leaders
41
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
44
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Downstream Support
46
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Overview
52
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Rewards
52
Indonesia Upstream Rating - Risks
52
Indonesia Downstream Rating - Overview
52
Market Overview
54
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
54
Overview/State Role
56
Licensing And Regulation
57
Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
62
Government Policy
63
Table: New Local Content Requirement
64
Licensing Rounds
66
Table: 2013 First Petroleum Licensing Round
67
Table: Results Of Second 2012 Licensing Round
68
Table: 2012 Second Licensing Round: Blocks On Regular Tender
69
Table: Indonesia Bids
70
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Indonesia
72
Table: Proposed/Planned Capacity Expansion
72
Service Stations
77
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
77
Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Tan Terminals In Indonesia
77
Oil Pipelines
79
LNG Terminals
79
Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
80
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
83
Gas Pipelines
85
Competitive Landscape
88
Competitive Landscape Summary
88
Table: Key Players - Indonesian Oil And Gas Sector
89
Table: Key Upstream Players
89
Table: Key Downstream Players
90
Company Profile
91
Pertamina
91
Chevron Indonesia
96
ExxonMobil Indonesia
100
BP Indonesia
104
CNOOC Indonesia
108
ConocoPhillips Indonesia
111
Total E&P Indonesia
115
Medco Energi
118
Eni Indonesia
122
Salamander Energy
126
Other Summaries
131
Regional Overview
138
Asia Overview
138
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
138
Tightening In The Downstream
142
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
146
A Hot Market For LNG
150
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
153
Global Industry Overview
155
Global Energy Market Overview
155
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
157
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
158
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
159
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
161
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
161
Appendix
164
Asia - Regional Appendix
164
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
164
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
165
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
166
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
166
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
167
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
168
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
169
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
170
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
171
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
171
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
172
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
173
Indonesia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
175
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
175
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
176
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
178
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
179
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
180
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
181
Glossary
183
Table: Glossary Of Terms
183
Methodology
185
Industry Forecast Methodology
185
Source
187
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
187
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
189
Table: Weighting
190

The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Indonesia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc