Business Monitor International


Indonesia Mining Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Mining Report

BMI View: Mining firms in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment as the economic slowdown in China drag s on mineral prices. The export ban on raw minerals will have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining industry. While no official announcement has been made, our core view remains that the export ban will eventually be rolled back due to mounting economic headwinds and practical consideration.

With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. Crucially, the export ban on raw will have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining sector. In an effort to push the construction of smelters and boost the value of mineral exports, the Indonesian government banned the export of unprocessed minerals with effect from January 2014. However, we believe the export ban is one policy that will have to be rolled back over the coming quarters. With the exception of tin, the bulk of minerals such as copper, nickel and bauxite are still a long way from being refined domestically.

Heading Higher, But Mounting Challenges
Indonesia - Mining Industry Value

Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, Indonesia can ill-afford to risk souring investor sentiment in the face of falling commodity prices and deteriorating economic conditions. Indeed, the increasingly strict policies within the mining space have arrived at an awkward time for the country. The new mining regulations were implemented following an extended bull run in global commodities prices. Since the implementation of the new regulations, Indonesia's external position has weakened considerably as prices of key exports such as coal and palm oil have collapsed. The paramount importance of the mining sector, which accounts for around 12% of Indonesia's GDP, and 20% of all foreign direct investment flows, reinforces our conviction that the minerals export ban...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Bauxite: Export Ban To Find Limited Success
10
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
12
Coal: Digging Hard, But Risks Lurk
12
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
13
Infrastructure Developments Underway
14
Risks To Outlook
15
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
16
Copper: Majors In Distress, Slowdown Ahead
16
Table: Indonesia - Largest Copper Projects
18
Nickel: Healthy Growth On The Horizon
19
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects
20
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
22
Tin: Modest Growth Ahead
22
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
29
Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Rewards
30
Industry Rewards
30
Country Rewards
30
Risks
31
Industry Risks
31
Country Risks
31
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
32
Regulatory Development
33
Recent Developments
33
Policy Moderation On The Cards
33
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
33
New Mining Law of 2009
34
Tax Regime
35
Corruption To Remain Key Concern
36
Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard
36
Table: Political Overview
37
Commodities Forecast
39
Commodity Strategy
39
Ferrous Metals:
39
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
39
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
40
Non-Ferrous Metals:
42
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
42
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
43
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
44
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
45
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
46
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
51
Key Players
51
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
52
Company Profile
53
PT Antam
53
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
55
PT Bumi Resources
57
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
59
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)
61
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data
64
PT Timah
66
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
68
Regional Overview
70
Asia - Q3 2014
70
Challenges
70
Opportunities
73
Global Industry Overview
78
Challenges
78
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
82
Cause For Optimism
85
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Sources
93
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Indonesia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc