Business Monitor International


Indonesia Mining Report

Published 06 October 2014

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Mining Report

BMI View:   The export ban on raw minerals will have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining industry. While no official announcement has been made, our core view remains that the export ban will eventually be rolled back due to mounting economic headwinds and practical consideration.

With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. The export ban on raw minerals will have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining sector. In an effort to push the construction of smelters and boost the value of mineral exports, the Indonesian government banned the export of unprocessed minerals with effect from January 2014. However, we believe the export ban is one policy that will have to be rolled back over the coming quarters. With the exception of tin, the bulk of minerals such as copper, nickel and bauxite are still a long way from being refined domestically.

No Return To Former Glory
Indonesia - Mining Industry Value

Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, Indonesia can ill-afford to risk souring investor sentiment in the face of falling commodity prices and rising economic headwinds. Indeed, the increasingly strict policies within the mining space have arrived at an awkward time for the country. The new mining regulations were implemented following an extended bull run in global commodity prices. Since the implementation of the new regulations, Indonesia's external position has weakened considerably as prices of key exports such as coal and palm oil have collapsed. The paramount importance of the mining sector, which accounts for around 12% of Indonesia's GDP, and 20% of all foreign direct investment flows, reinforces our conviction that the minerals export ban will eventually be scrapped. 

Furthermore, the processing rules have encountered intense criticism from both the country's top mining associations and the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Bauxite: Output To Recover As Export Ban Eases
11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
14
Coal: Expanding, But Risks Lurk
15
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
18
Infrastructure Development A Boon
20
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
21
Copper: Growth To Cool
22
Table: Indonesia - Largest Copper Projects
26
Nickel: Temporary Collapse
27
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects
29
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
31
Tin: Rising Prices To Support Production
32
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2018)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Australia Leads, Frontier Markets To Remain Laggards
37
An Improving Regulatory Landscape
38
Largest Quarterly Change In Laos
39
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
40
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Rewards
41
Industry Rewards
41
Country Rewards
41
Risks
42
Industry Risks
42
Country Risks
42
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value & Mineral Production Forecasts
43
Regulatory Development
44
Key Developments
44
Policy Moderation On The Cards
44
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
44
New Mining Law of 2009
46
Tax Regime
47
Corruption To Remain Key Concern
47
Table: Asia - Regulatory Outlook
48
Table: Political Overview
48
Commodities Forecast
50
Commodity Strategy
50
Ferrous Metals:
51
Non-Ferrous Metals:
54
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip
54
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds
55
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead
57
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains
60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
61
Competitive Landscape
63
Key Players
63
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
64
Company Profile
65
PT Antam
65
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
68
PT Bumi Resources
69
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
72
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)
73
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data
77
PT Timah
78
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
81
Regional Overview
82
Asia Overview
82
Global Industry Overview
88
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards
88
M&A Activity To Pick Up
90
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore
90
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum
91
Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace
92
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry
93
Methodology
95
Industry Forecast Methodology
95
Sources
96
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
99

The Indonesia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc