Business Monitor International


Indonesia Mining Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Mining Report

BMI View: A growing number of miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment as the economic slowdown in China cont inues to drag on mineral prices. Crucially, the export ban on raw minerals will have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining industry. While no official announcement has been made, our core view remains that the export ban will eventually be rolled back due to mounting economic headwinds and practical consideration.

With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe a growing number of miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. Despite boasting rich mineral reserves, Indonesia's mining sector is still very much in its infancy. The country is only a dominant miner in the production of a few minerals, namely, bauxite, coal, nickel and tin. In contrast to other countries such as Australia, Indonesia has failed to reap the benefits from the unparalleled growth of China over the past decade.

Boom Years Behind Us
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index (monthly chart)

While the stellar run in commodity prices has encouraged a wave of mining investment around the world, capital flows into Indonesia's mining space has been less impressive. The lack of a mature regulatory framework governing exploration and extraction has been a key concern for many investors. The enactment of the New Mining Law of 2009 has significantly discouraged foreign miners from entering the country. Under the new law, foreign investors are required to progressively divest their shareholding such that by the end of the sixth year of commercial production, Indonesian investors hold at least 20% of the total shareholding. This figure would gradually increase to 51% by the tenth year of commercial production.

Crucially, the export ban on raw minerals in 2014 would have a decisive impact on the fortunes of Indonesia's mining sector. In an effort to push the construction of smelters and boost...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Bauxite: Export Ban To Find Limited Success
12
Table: Indonesia - Bauxite Production Forecast
14
Coal: Digging Hard, But Risks Lurk
15
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
16
Infrastructure Developments Underway
16
Risks To Outlook
18
Table: Indonesia - Coal Production Forecast
19
Copper: Majors In Distress, Slowdown Ahead
19
Table: Indonesia - Largest Copper Projects
21
Table: Indonesia - Copper Production Forecast
23
Nickel: Healthy Growth On The Horizon
24
Table: Indonesia - Largest Nickel Projects
25
Table: Indonesia - Nickel Production Forecast
27
Tin: Modest Growth Ahead
28
Table: Indonesia - Tin Production Forecast
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Resource Nationalism On The Retreat
31
Frontier Markets Losing Attraction
31
Table: Asia Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Country Highlights
32
Australia: An Improving Landscape
32
China: Darkening Outlook
33
India: Stumbling Blocks Remain, Despite Reforms
33
Indonesia: Further Policy Moderation Ahead
34
Mongolia: Government Unlikely To Overplay Its Hand
34
Philippines: Taxing Times
35
Japan: Little Potential In Sight
36
South Korea: Few Bright Spots
37
Market Overview
38
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
39
Regulatory Development
40
Recent Developments
40
Policy Moderation On The Cards
40
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
40
New Mining Law of 2009
41
Tax Regime
42
Corruption To Remain Key Concern
43
Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard
43
Table: Political Overview
44
Commodities Forecast
46
Commodity Strategy
46
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will
46
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices
48
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak
49
Copper: All Eyes On China
50
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers
51
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer
53
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field
54
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely
55
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
56
Competitive Landscape
58
More Downstream Investment On The Cards
58
Key Players
58
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
59
Company Profile
60
PT Antam
60
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
62
PT Bumi Resources
64
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
67
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)
69
Table: ITMG - Key Financial Data
73
PT Timah
74
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
76
Global Industry Overview
78
Asia Overview
89
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Sources
98
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
99
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
102

The Indonesia Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc