Business Monitor International


Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Published 01 October 2014

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Political Risk Coming Back Down After Elections

With the general elections now over and Joko Wikodo poised to take over from President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, political risk factors are beginning to subside and BMI retains a broadly optimistic outlook for the Indonesian economy. That said, we consider 2014 to be a relatively weak transition year prior to the recovery gathering pace in 2015. First quarter growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year and we expect some further weakening because of the government ban on raw mineral exports and lower investment inflows. The mineral export ban is supposed to encourage more processing inside Indonesia, but we believe few international companies will make the major refinery and smelter investments required, and that the policy will be growth-negative. That said, President-elect Wikodo was clearly the more market-friendly of the two main presidential candidates, so business sentiment will be improving. We also think monetary policy will become more pro-growth. Considering all these factors, we are maintaining our forecast for 5.1% GDP growth in 2014, with the rate picking up to 6.0% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016.

Our freight transport forecast for 2014 shows a slower pace of growth, as the economy decelerates. We had expected the slowdown to be partially offset by something of a recovery in foreign trade, but according to our latest projections, this will be weaker than we hoped. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see evidence of progress on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.

Industry Data

  • Air freight volumes are forecast to expand by 7.0% in 2014, with average annual growth of 7.1% during our forecast period to 2018.

  • Rail freight volumes are estimated to rise by 8.3% in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Road & Rail
17
Table: Indonesia - Rail Freight, 2011-2018
19
Air
19
Table: Indonesia - Air Freight, 2011-2018
19
Maritime
19
Table: Indonesia - Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
21
Trade
21
Table: Indonesia - Trade Overview, 2011-2018
21
Table: Indonesia - Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012
23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Intermodal
29
Rail
30
Air
31
Maritime
31
Company Profile
35
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo)
35
Samudera Shipping Line
38
Trada Maritime (TRAM)
40
Political Outlook
42
Domestic Politics
42
Latest Developments
43
Core View
43
Risk To Outlook
45
Long-Term Political Outlook
46
Table: Table: Indonesia Political Overview
49
Oil Price Outlook
50
Bunker Fuel
50
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
50
The Storm Clears For Shipping
51
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
53
Long-Term Threats Linger
54
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
56
Risks To Outlook
57
Jet Fuel
57
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
57
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
58
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
60
Risks To Outlook
63
Diesel
64
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
64
New York's One-Off Heat Up
64
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
67
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
71
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
73
Risks To Outlook
77
Macroeconomic Forecast
78
Economic Analysis
78
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
81
Demographic Forecast
82
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Sources
88

The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc