Business Monitor International


Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 81 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Nationalism And Elections Worry Investors

We have reduced our GDP growth forecast for Indonesia this year, cutting it back to 5.1%, down from the 5.4% we were predicting in our previous quarterly shipping report. The main reason is growing political risk ahead of the presidential elections due in July 2014, coupled with increased economic nationalism from the outgoing government. Taken together these things are persuading investors to wait things out. Economic growth in the first quarter had already slowed to 5.1%. The ban on mineral ore exports (introduced to try and force mining companies to do more refining and processing within Indonesia) has had a negative effect, particularly as it has coincided with slowing Chinese demand for Indonesian coal. Other measures (such as new restrictions on foreign participation in the oil and gas sector) have also concerned investors. We expect slowing investment to be the main drag on growth this year. On the plus side, however we believe that presidential front runner Joko Widodo (Jokowi), the former mayor of Jakarta, who is favourite to win the contest, is reform minded and is prepared to strike an astute balance between the needs of foreign investors and domestic political constituencies. Although his detailed policies have yet to be spelled out, we think he could boost the infrastructure, mining, and oil and gas sectors, although admittedly he may face an uphill task in coalescing political support for his plans, given the expected fragmentary nature of the new parliament.

Our freight transport forecast for 2014 shows a slower pace of growth, as the economy decelerates. This slowdown will be partially offset by something of a recovery in foreign trade that we expect during the course of the year. On the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see some evidence of progress...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
14
Industry Forecast
16
Road And Rail
18
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
19
Air
19
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
19
Maritime
20
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
22
Table: Indonesia's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
23
Table: Indonesia's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
23
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Intermodal
28
Rail
28
Air
29
Maritime
30
Company Profile
35
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo)
35
Samudera Shipping Line
38
Trada Maritime (TRAM)
40
Regional Overview
43
Political Outlook
43
Political Analysis
43
Table: Indonesia Political Overview
45
Long-Term Political Outlook
46
Global Industry Overview
50
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
50
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
50
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
51
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
53
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
56
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
58
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
58
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
59
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
59
Macroeconomic Forecasts
62
External Demand Woes Seeping Into Broader Economy
62
External Position Mending, But Investment Outlook Cloudy
64
Government Measures Poorly Timed
65
Expenditure Breakdown
66
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
67
Demographic Forecast
68
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
69
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
70
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
71
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
71
Methodology
72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
72
Transport Industry
73
Sources
73

The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc