Business Monitor International


Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Published 16 December 2014

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Freight Growth To Continue In 2015

Our freight transport forecast for 2015 shows cargo volume growth will continue at a similar pace to 2014. . Both GDP and foreign trade expansion will support the freight sector. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see that the new government wants to push forward on this front Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.

BMI is trimming back its forecast for Indonesian GDP growth in 2015 by half a percentage point to 5.5%, down from 6.0% previously. We are maintaining our estimate for 2014 growth at 5.1%. The main reasons for being more cautious about the outlook in 2015 are the combined effects of tighter monetary policy, the adjustment caused by the reduction of petrol price subsidies, and a mixed export outlook, influenced by the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Bank Indonesia (BI) has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy bias over recent quarters despite a falling rate of headline inflation. However, the decision by the new administration of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo to slash petrol price subsidies in November is expected to give a short-term boost to inflation and therefore persuade BI to maintain higher interest rates. Other growth-negative factors are also at work, such as the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Investment has eased back. Despite this, BMI remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook for the country, and in the period running up to 2019 we expect GDP growth to average a healthy 6.3%.

Industry Data

  • Airfreight volumes are forecast to expand by 7.0% in 2015, with average annual growth of 7.1% during our forecast period to 2019.

  • Rail freight volumes are estimated to rise by 7.5% in 2015, with average growth of 7.7% during our forecast period.

  • 2015...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Road & Rail
18
Table: Rail Freight (Indonesia 2011-2018)
19
Air
19
Table: Air Freight (Indonesia 2011-2018)
19
Maritime
20
Table: Maritime Freight (Indonesia 2011-2018)
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (Indonesia 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Indonesia 2011-2018)
22
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012
23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Intermodal
29
Road
30
Rail
30
Air
31
Maritime
31
Company Profile
35
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo)
35
Samudera Shipping Line
38
Trada Maritime (TRAM)
40
Political Outlook
43
Domestic Politics
43
Golkar Surprise
44
Assuming Jokowi Victory, Mandate Could Still Be Elusive
45
Long-Term Political Outlook
47
Table: Table: Indonesia Political Overview
50
Oil Price Outlook
52
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
52
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
52
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
54
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
58
Risks To Outlook
59
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
60
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
60
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
65
Risks To Outlook
66
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
67
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
67
Supply Keeps Market Down
67
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
69
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
70
Risks To Outlook
73
Macroeconomic Forecast
74
Macroeconomic Forecasts
74
Export Ban Hits Hard
75
Prabowo Raising The Stakes With Protectionist Stance
76
Mixed Picture For Investment Outlook
77
Table: Economic Activity (Indonesia 2009-2018)
78
Demographic Forecast
79
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
80
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
81
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
82
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
82
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Sector-Specific Methodology
84
Sources
85

The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc