Business Monitor International


Indonesia Freight Transport Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 81 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Economy Continues To Slow Into 2014; Recovery In 2015

Following on from our comments in our last quarterly report, we continue to see Indonesia undergoing an adjustment process which will see lower growth on the short term, as the authorities seek to cool and rebalance an economy that had over-heated. Quarterly growth was below expectations in Q313, but then above expectations in Q413. Despite this fluctuation the economy in our view remains on a slight downtrend as efforts are made to narrow the current account deficit, squeeze out inflation, and tighten monetary policy. For full-year 2013, GDP growth was 5.8%, the lowest level in four years. We are predicting a further slowing to 5.4% GDP growth in 2014 (no change compared to our last quarterly report), picking up to 6.5% growth in 2015. For this year private consumption growth will slow, government spending is likely to increase (this is an election year), investment will fall, and net exports will make a small recovery. Our long-term outlook remains sanguine, with real GDP growth projected to average 6.2% per annum over the coming decade. Much of this, however, will be driven by strong growth in fixed capital. Should improvements in the investment climate stall or reverse - after all, the country is still ranked at a lowly 120th in the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 report - Indonesia could fail to realise its strong growth potential.

Our freight transport forecast for 2014 shows a significantly slower pace of growth, as the economy slows. This slowdown will be partially offset by something of a recovery in foreign trade that we expect during the course of the year. On the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see some evidence of progress on this front. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Road And Rail
16
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
18
Air
18
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
18
Maritime
18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
20
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
21
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012
22
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
22
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Intermodal
28
Rail
28
Air
28
Maritime
29
Company Profile
33
Garuda Indonesia (Cargo)
33
Samudera Shipping Line
35
Trada Maritime (TRAM)
37
Political Outlook
40
Domestic Politics
40
Table: Indonesia - Key Presidential Candidates
43
Table: India - Key Prime Ministerial Candidates
46
Long-Term Political Outlook
46
Table: Indonesia Political Overview
49
Oil Price Outlook
51
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
51
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
51
Methodology
53
Crude Price Forecasts
54
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
54
Oil Product Price Forecasts
54
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
55
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
56
Weak Demand Persists
57
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
58
Quarterly Prices
62
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
62
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
63
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
65
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
71
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
73
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
73
Risks To Outlook
75
Macroeconomic Forecast
76
Current Account Mending Slowly
77
GDP Buffeted By Triple Headwinds
78
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
79
Demographic Forecast
80
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
81
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
82
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
83
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
83
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sector-Specific Methodology
85
Sources
86

The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc