Business Monitor International


Indonesia Defence & Security Report

Published 18 March 2014

  • 90 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Indonesia benefits from a substantial size advantage over its neighbours, although the relevance of this has declined as the South East Asian region continues to display considerable stability. The success of ASEAN has fostered a diplomatic rationality, with only a handful of relatively minor confrontations enduring, most notably a Sino-Philippine dispute over a number of minor islands. In spite of this, Indonesian military moderni s ation will continue, despite the greatest threats to Indonesian security being internal ones.

For its part, Jakarta has good relations with Beijing. However, the Indonesian side has expressed concern over some Chinese activities in the South China Sea, and Beijing must tread carefully in order to remain on good terms with South East Asia's key state. Indeed, Indonesian pressure will be critical in ensuring that China follows through on its promise to come to the table to negotiate a new Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, although progress to date has been limited, despite the best intentions of Jakarta and Washington, amongst others . 

Indonesia's regional importance as the driving force of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) group has been reinforced in a number of respects. Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott visited Indonesia in September 2013 and declared that the bilateral relationship with Jakarta's was Australia's 'single most important [one]' we have. US President Barack Obama cancelled a trip to Indonesia in October 2013 due to political problems back home, and was severely criticised by Asia watchers for passing up an important opportunity to boost relations with key regional allies. The successful hosting of the Komodo Multilateral Naval Exercises in Q2 2014 both highlight and enhance the importance of Indonesia in the region.

Domestically, however, Indonesia has some security concerns. The economy remains under pressure, particularly with regards to currency weakness, and this has...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Indonesia Security SWOT
9
Indonesia Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
15
Economic
17
Business Environment
19
Industry Forecast
20
Defence Expenditure
20
Table: Defence Expenditure (Indonesia 2011-2018)
21
Armed Forces
22
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Indonesia 2000-2010)
24
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (Indonesia 2011-2018)
25
Defence Production
25
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (Indonesia 2011-2018)
27
Exports
27
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (Indonesia 2011-2018)
28
Imports
29
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (Indonesia 2011-2018)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Asia Security Risk Ratings
35
Table: Asia Pacific Security Risk Ratings
35
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
36
Indonesia Security Risk Rating
37
Market Overview
38
Indonesia Defence Market Overview
38
Army
38
Domestic Industries
39
Imports
41
International Defence Partnerships
45
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
47
Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Defence Sector
47
Indonesia Security Overview
48
Domestic Threats
48
Table: Indonesia's Insurgent Groups
48
Regional Threats
48
International Threats
51
Company Profile
53
PT Dirgantara Indonesia (IAe)
53
PT Pindad
55
PT Penataran Angkatan Laut (PAL)
57
Regional Overview
58
Political Risk Analysis
58
Global Industry Overview
71
Global Political Outlook
71
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78
Sources
79
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
79
Table: Indicators And Weighting
80

The Indonesia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Indonesia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Indonesian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Indonesian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc