Business Monitor International


Indonesia Business Forecast Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 59 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Indonesia Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • T he election results will ultimately depend on whether the electorate clamours for reform or stability. If the preference is for the former, current Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo (Jokowi) from the PDI-P will likely emerge victorious. If the inclination is towards stability, ex-General Prabowo Subianto (Gerindra) or prominent businessman Aburizal Bakrie (Golkar) are likely to be the frontrunners.

  • While we have yet to see his policy platform, Jokowi's ability to streamline bureaucratic inefficiencies, improve public finances, strike a balance between pro-business and pro-welfare policies, as well as willingness to take politically unpopular but necessary measures to right economic imbalances could provide some upside potential for the infrastructure, mining and oil and gas sectors.

  • Judging from the progressive deceleration in inflation, as well as a continuing fall in import demand, Bank Indonesia's (BI) monetary tightening appears to be exhibiting some measure of efficacy. In the near term, we do not expect BI to reverse its policy stance as it continues to allow policy measures to work their way through the economy. Towards the second half of the year, however, with inflation likely to fall within the BI's target range, coupled with an ongoing slowdown in economic activity, we expect BI policy to turn growth supportive and are consequently sticking to our forecast for 50 basis points of interest rate cuts.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Indonesia risks a crisis of confidence similar to past panics as hot money outflows continue to batter the country's asset markets. Should sentiment continue to worsen, the government and central bank will need to do more to address the weakening rupiah, as well as the country's current account woes.

  • 2014 elections also pose increasingly imminent risks, as potential candidates (and their prospective policies) remain largely unknown. As the elections approach towards the end of 2014, Indonesia could witness...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Four Questions About The Mining Ban
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Outlook Improved, But Uncertainty Lingers
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Mounting Headwinds Despite Consensus-Beating Growth
14
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
14
Fiscal Policy
15
Reform Push To Put Fiscal Recovery On Sound Footing
15
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
16
Monetary Policy
17
BI Stands Pat Amid Strengthening Currency, Bonds
17
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
17
Balance Of Payments
18
Mineral Export Ban A Fresh Headwind For Trade Recovery
18
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Indonesian Economy To 2023
21
A Bullish Long-Term Growth Story
21
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Business Environment
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
23
Business Environment Outlook
24
Institutions
24
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
24
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
25
Infrastructure
26
Tab le: Lab our Force Qua lity
26
TABLE: ASIA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
27
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
28
Market Orientation
29
TABLE : INDONESIA's TOP EXPOR T DESTINATIONS, 2001-2008
29
Operational Risk
30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
33
Autos
33
TABLE: Automotive Market Overview, 2012-2017
34
TABLE: Automotive Market: Auto Trade Balance, 2012-2018
35
Food & Drink
38
TABLE: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2018
40
Other Key Sectors
45
table: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
45
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
45
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
45
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
46
table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
46
table: Freight Key Indicators
46
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
47
Global Outlook
47
Global Growth Optimism Turning To Disappointment
47
Table: Global Assumptions
47
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
48
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
48
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
49

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Indonesia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Indonesia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Indonesia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Indonesia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Indonesia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Indonesia economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Indonesia through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Indonesia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Indonesia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Indonesia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Indonesia over the next 5-years?

BMI's Indonesia country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Indonesia Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Indonesia.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Indonesia's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Indonesia's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Indonesia, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Indonesia's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Indonesia will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Indonesia's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2008-2012, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2013-2017, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express