Business Monitor International


Indonesia Autos Report

Published 24 February 2014

  • 73 pages
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Indonesia Autos Report

According to the Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers (Gaikindo), domestic vehicle sales in December 2013 came in at 97,691 units, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). This brought total 2013 sales to 1,229,901 units, an increase of 10.2% and very much in line with our sales growth forecast of 10.4%. For 2014, we expect auto sales to grow 7.1%, to 1.32mn units.

We forecast the passenger car segment to continue outperforming the commercial vehicle (CV) segment in 2014. That said, we expect a slight deceleration in car sales growth to 8.5%, in 2014. One factor responsible for the resilience in vehicle sales towards the end of 2013 was the introduction of the low-cost green car (LCGC) segment in September 2013, which recorded sales of over 50,000 units in 2013. The availability of fuel-efficient variants in this segment will give consumers an alternative in an environment of higher pump prices and we see these eco-car models continuing to buoy passenger car sales in 2014. Another factor, which could buoy private consumption, is the increased spending by political parties (in the form of cash handouts) in the run-up to the July 2014 elections.

That said, our Country Risk team believes that inflation will remain fairly elevated in 2014 and this will erode consumers' purchasing power ( see 'Mounting Headwinds Despite Consensus-Beating Growth', February 6). Furthermore, this is likely to keep Bank Indonesia's hawkish stance unchanged at least in H114. With 70% of auto sales requiring some form of financing, we cannot neglect the impact of higher interest rates on consumer loans, and our lower passenger car sales growth forecast for 2014, compared with 2013's performance, reflects the risk of tighter credit conditions.

On the other hand, the CV segment is set to face a more challenging time, especially for the first half of 2014, as high interest rates and political uncertainties weigh on the sector, leading us to forecast CV sales growth of just 3.4%....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market Overview, 2010-2017
15
Sales
15
Production
17
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Auto Trade Balance, 2012-2018
19
Passenger Vehicles
23
Production
23
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Passenger Car Sales And Production, 2012-2018
25
Sales
25
Commercial Vehicles
30
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Commercial Vehicle Sales And Production, 2012-2018
30
Motorcycles
32
Long-Term Forecasts
34
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Motorbikes Sales And Production, 2012-2018
34
Table: SALES OF TOP THREE MOTORBIKE MANUFACTURERS
34
Suppliers
35
Macroeconomic Forecast
41
Current Account Mending Slowly
42
GDP Buffeted By Triple Headwinds
43
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Company Profile
49
Company Monitor
49
Toyota Astra Motor
52
Suzuki Indomobil Motor
53
Regional Overview
54
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
54
Global Industry Overview
59
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
59
Europe On Road To Recovery
59
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
61
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
63
Demographic Forecast
66
Demographic Outlook
66
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
67
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
68
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
69
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
69
Methodology
70
Industry Forecasts
70
Sector-Specific Methodology
71
Sources
71
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
72
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
73

The Indonesia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indonesian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc