Business Monitor International


Indonesia Autos Report

Published 27 May 2014

  • 73 pages
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$1,295.00
Indonesia Autos Report

We forecast the passenger car segment to continue outperforming the commercial vehicle (CV) segment in 2014. Despite that, we expect a slight slowing in car sales growth to 8.5% in 2014. Auto sector growth will rebound to previous levels in 2015, with a 9.6% rise.

According to Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), domestic vehicle sales in June 2014 came in at 110,560 units, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year (y-o-y). Sales were boosted by the low-cost green car (LCGC) segment. This brought total H114 sales to 642,323 units, an increase of 6.7% y-o-y. For 2014, we forecast auto sales to grow 7.1%, to 1.32mn units. Production figures have remained steady in 2014. In June they were recorded at 116,840 and are expected to increase gradually in the second half of 2014 and into 2015.

We expect the passenger car segment to continue to outperform the CV segment in 2014. However we expect a slight deceleration in car sales growth to 8.5%. This decrease in growth is only temporary as sales growth is predicted to rise to 9.6% in 2015. The Low Cost Green Car (LCGC) scheme, introduced in September 2013, recorded sales of over 50,000 units in 2013 and in H114 alone recorded 85,463 sales - giving the industry a significant boost. The availability of fuel-efficient variants in this segment will give consumers an alternative in an environment of higher pump prices and we see these eco-car models continuing to buoy passenger car sales in 2014. That said, our Country Risk team believes that inflation will remain fairly elevated in 2014 and this will erode consumers' purchasing power ( see 'Mounting Headwinds Despite Consensus-Beating Growth', February 6). Furthermore, this is likely to keep Bank Indonesia's hawkish stance unchanged at least in H114. With 70% of auto sales requiring some form of financing, we cannot neglect the impact of higher interest rates on consumer loans, and our lower passenger car sales growth forecast for 2014, compared with 2013's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2018)
15
Sales
15
Production
17
Passenger Cars
23
Production
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2018)
25
Sales
25
Commercial Vehicles
35
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2018)
35
Motorcycles
37
Long-Term Forecasts
39
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2018)
39
Table: Sales Of Top Three Motorbike Manufacturers
40
Suppliers
41
Macroeconomic Forecast
49
Economic Analysis
49
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
52
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
53
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
56
Company Profile
57
Company Monitor
57
Toyota Astra Motor
61
Suzuki Indomobil Motor
62
Regional Overview
63
Asia Regional Overview
63
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
63
Global Industry Overview
68
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
68
European Growth Gathers Momentum
68
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
70
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
71
Demographic Forecast
74
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
75
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
76
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
77
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
77
Methodology
78
Industry Forecasts
78
Sector-Specific Methodology
79
Sources
79
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
80
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
81

The Indonesia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indonesian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc