Business Monitor International


Indonesia Agribusiness Report

Published 23 January 2015

  • 174 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook on Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. While we believe the government's goal to reach self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country's aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism relates to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. We believe the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries. Investments by Wilmar , Golden Agri Resources and Barry Callebaut are clear signs of the growing interest in these sectors.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Corn consumption growth to 201 9 : 2 8.7 % to 1 4.7 mn tonnes . Corn demand will be mainly driven by the increasing need for animal feed, considerably outpacing the rise in use for food for direct human consumption.

  • Sugar production growth to 201 8/19 : 3 2.5 % to 3.0 mn tonnes. This expansion will be mainly due to improved yields and higher sucrose content in cane. Despite the production improvement, the country will remain one of the world's largest sugar importers as sugar consumption outstrips what the country can meet through supply. Production growth will be held back by poor cane recovery rates, poor harvest management and infrastructure issues, especially to transport cane.

  • Beef production growth to 201 8/19 : 1 4.3 % to 686 ,000 tonnes. Output will grow on the back of increased domestic demand as well as further government support, as Indonesian authorities are looking to be self-sufficient in the coming...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
18
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2018)
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
24
Sugar Outlook
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
26
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
30
Livestock Outlook
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
42
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
42
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
42
Palm Oil Outlook
44
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
45
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012 - 2014
47
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
49
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
54
Coffee Outlook
57
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
58
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
63
Cocoa Outlook
64
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2018)
65
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
72
Featured Analysis
74
Attractive Opportunities Amid Booming Dairy Demand And Imports
74
Table: Dairy Products Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
80
Commodities Price Analysis
81
Monthly Softs Strategy
81
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
88
Monthly Grains Strategy
89
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
96
Upstream Analysis
97
Asia GM Outlook
97
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
103
Asia Machinery Outlook
104
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
104
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
108
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
112
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
116
Downstream Analysis
118
Food
118
Food Consumption
118
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2011-2018)
119
Canned Food
119
Confectionery
120
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2011-2018)
122
Drink
123
Hot Drinks
123
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
124
Alcoholic Drinks
125
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
125
Soft Drinks
127
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
128
Mass Grocery Retail
131
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
132
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%)
133
Regional Overview
134
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
135
Table: ASEAN Economic Community - Winners And Losers In Selected Agribusiness Sectors
136
Competitive Landscape
139
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
139
Global Company Strategy
140
Felda Global Ventures
140
Table: Select Companies - Land Bank, Tree Age Profile & Performance, 2013
144
Table: Felda Global Ventures - Financial Highlights
148
Demographic Forecast
150
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
151
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
152
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
153
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
153
Methodology
154
Industry Forecast Methodology
154
Sector-Specific Methodology
155

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Indonesia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities covered by the Agribusiness market Reports include:

Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all Reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc