Business Monitor International


Indonesia Agribusiness Report

Published 13 August 2014

  • 156 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook on Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. While we believe the government's goal to reach self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country's aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism relates to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. We believe the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries. Investments by Wilmar , Golden Agri Resources and Barry Callebaut are clear signs of the growing interest in these sectors.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2017/18: 11.5% to 40.8mn tonnes. We believe Indonesia will attain its goal of being self-sufficient in rice in the coming years, as the country is multiplying the initiatives to boost production. Growing use of high-yielding paddy varieties and agriculture intensification will help output record higher growth rate than in the past.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 33.0%% to 6.9mn tonnes. Consumption growth will continue to outstrip production growth, driven by rising incomes, greater urbanisation, population growth and the growing demand from the food and beverage industry.  

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 19.0% to 1.85mn tonnes.  Output growth will come from increased domestic demand as well as further government support.  

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD63.6bn in 2014 (up from USD58.4bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 5.7% on average between 2013 and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Coffee Outlook
13
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
18
Palm Oil Outlook
19
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
20
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 Idr) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012 - 2014
22
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
24
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
29
Livestock Outlook
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
32
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
40
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
41
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
41
Sugar Outlook
42
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
43
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
47
Cocoa Outlook
48
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2018)
49
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
56
Grains Outlook
58
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
59
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2018)
59
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
62
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
63
Rice Outlook
64
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2018)
65
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2008-2013)
70
Commodities Price Analysis
72
Monthly Grains Strategy
72
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
80
Monthly Softs Strategy
80
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
89
Upstream Analysis
90
Asia Machinery Outlook
90
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
92
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
96
Asia GM Outlook
100
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
106
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
107
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
110
Downstream Analysis
114
Food
114
Food Consumption
114
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2011-2018)
115
Canned Food
115
Confectionery
116
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2011-2018)
118
Drink
120
Hot Drinks
120
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
121
Alcoholic Drinks
122
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
122
Soft Drinks
124
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
125
Mass Grocery Retail
128
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2018)
129
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%)
130
Regional Overview
131
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
133
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
137
Competitive Landscape
139
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
139
Global Company Strategy
140
Golden Agri-Resources
140
Table: Select Companies - Land Bank, Tree Age Profile & Performance, 2013
144
Table: Golden Agri-Resources - Financial Highlights
150
Charoen Pokphand Foods
151
Table: Charoen Pokphand Foods' Financial Highlights, 2009-2013
160
Demographic Forecast
161
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
162
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
163
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
164
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
164
Methodology
165
Industry Forecast Methodology
165
Sector-Specific Methodology
166

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Indonesia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Indonesia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc