Business Monitor International


Indonesia Agribusiness Report

Published 24 January 2014

  • 156 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Indonesia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook on Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. While we believe the government's goal to reach self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country's aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism relates to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. We believe the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries. Investments by Wilmar, Golden Agri Resources and Barry Callebaut are clear signs of the growing interest in these sectors.

Palm Oil, The King Commodity
Indonesia - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Rice production growth to 2017/18: 12.4% to 41.1mn tonnes. We believe Indonesia will attain its goal of being self-sufficient in rice in the coming years, as the country is multiplying the initiatives to boost production. Growing use of high-yielding paddy varieties and agriculture intensification will help output record higher growth rates than in the past.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 32.9%% to 6.8mn tonnes. Consumption growth will continue to outstrip production growth, driven by rising incomes, greater urbanisation, population growth and growing demand from the food and beverage industry.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 19.0% to 1.85mn tonnes. Output growth will come from increased domestic demand as well as further government support.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$63.6bn in 2014 (up from US$58.4bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 5.7% on average between 2013 and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Coffee Outlook
13
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
14
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
17
Palm Oil Outlook
17
Table: Indonesia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
19
Table: Indonesia And Malaysia - Palm Oil & Biodiesel Estimates, 2006-2014
20
Table: Indonesia: Minimum Wage In Key Palm Oil Producing Regions (IDR '000 Per Month)
26
Table: Select Companies - Palm Oil Land Bank
27
Table: Indonesia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Livestock Outlook
31
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
32
Table: Indonesia Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
32
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
32
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
38
Table: Indonesia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
39
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
39
Sugar Outlook
40
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
41
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
44
Cocoa Outlook
45
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
46
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Exports By Product
48
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
51
Grains Outlook
52
Table: Indonesia Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
53
Table: Indonesia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
53
Table: Indonesia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
57
Table: Indonesia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
57
Rice Outlook
58
Table: Indonesia Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
59
Table: Indonesia Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
64
Commodities Price Analysis
65
Monthly Softs Update
65
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
74
Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
75
Monthly Grains Update
75
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
84
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
85
Upstream Analysis
86
Asia GM Outlook
86
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
90
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
91
Asia Machinery Outlook
92
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
93
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
99
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
101
Downstream Analysis
106
Food
106
Food Consumption
106
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
107
Canned Food
108
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
108
Confectionery
109
Table: Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
110
Mass Grocery Retail
114
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
116
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%)
116
Drink
117
Hot Drinks
117
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
118
Alcoholic Drinks
118
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
119
Soft Drinks
119
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
121
Regional Overview
123
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
125
Competitive Landscape
129
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
129
Global Company Strategy
130
Olam International
130
Table: Olam - Financial Highlights
138
Golden Agri-Resources
139
Table: Select Companies - Land Bank, Tree Age Profile & Performance, 2012*
142
Table: Golden Agri-Resources - Financial Highlights
149
Demographic Forecast
150
Demographic Outlook
150
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
151
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
152
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
153
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
153
Methodology
154
Industry Forecast Methodology
154
Sector-Specific Methodology
155

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Indonesia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Indonesia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Indonesia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc