Business Monitor International


India Telecommunications Report

Published 14 March 2014

  • 139 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The Indian telecommunications market has experience d a considerable number of challenges in the last few years due to constant regulatory disputes and a hostile business environment, which include s an aggressive price war that has eroded operators ' profitability. Despite the country ' s significant growth potential, the industry is struggling to capitalise on the opportunities, which will remain the central theme in the near future as we do not expect the market to reach a swift resolution of the se complicated issues.

Key Data

  • In September 2013, the Indian mobile subscriber base fell back slightly relative to the previous quarter, although the overall momentum over the year to date has been positive, and we envisage a rise to 876mn subscribers by the end of 2013.

  • We continue to expect ARPU levels to trend higher due to 3G and value-added services, although we highlight the fact that the industry is prone to downside risks such as aggressive price competition, with a number of key operators having recently slashed their 2G data charges.

  • Looking longer term, the government's recent move to allow foreign operators to have a stake of up to 100% in local telecom companies is likely to result in the injection of much-needed funds to roll out the nation's 3G network infrastructure.

  • We forecast slow but steady fixed broadband subscriber growth as operators and consumers opt for cheaper and more convenient mobile solutions.

Risk/Reward Ratings

India is in 13th position in BMI's Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, with a Telecoms Rating score of 46.5.

Key Trends And Developments

In July 2013, the Indian government lifted the 74% foreign direct investment (FDI) cap in the telecoms sector, allowing foreign investors to increase their stake to a full 100%. Although this is likely to help stimulate a process of industry consolidation, BMI expects that the process will not begin in earnest until the TRAI issues new M&A...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Wireline
12
Political
14
Economic
16
Business Environment
18
Industry Forecast
20
Mobile
20
Table: Mobile- Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Fixed-Line
24
Table: Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts
24
Broadband
25
Table: Broadband - Historical Data And Forecasts
25
Industry Risk Reward Rating
28
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q214
36
Market Overview
37
Mobile
37
Table: India Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2012
38
Key Developments
38
Market Growth
39
Market Shares
40
Table: India Mobile Subscribers By Operator, February 2013
41
Networks
44
Table: Selected 3G Subscriber Growth ('000) And Cell Sites
45
Mobile Content
51
Table: Selected Value-Added Services
53
Table: India Mobile Market Overview
54
Table: Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL)
55
Table: Bharti Airtel
55
Table: Reliance Communications
57
Table: Vodafone India
58
Asia Pacific Mobile Content
60
Tablets Are The New TV
61
Table: Percentage Of Long-Form Video Views By Device
64
Infrastructure Is A Key Enabler
64
Fixed-Line
66
Table: India Fixed-Line Subscribers By Operator, September 2013
66
Table: September 2013
68
Broadband
71
Table: India Internet Market, September 2013
71
Table: India Fixed Broadband Market, September 2012
73
Industry Trends And Developments
77
Table: November 2012 2G Auction Results
82
Table: Number Of Porting Requests ('000)
86
Table: Telecoms Market Developments
87
Regulatory Development
90
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
90
Competitive Landscape
96
Table: Key Players
96
Table: Selected Operators Annual Revenue (INRmn)
96
Company Profile
97
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
97
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL)
103
Bharti Airtel
108
Reliance Communications
114
Vodafone India
120
Regional Overview
125
The Growth Challenges to Foxconn's Empire
125
Demographic Forecast
129
Demographic Outlook
129
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
130
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
131
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
132
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
132
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Terms
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Sources
136
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
137
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
138
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
139

The India Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of India's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's India Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc