Business Monitor International


India Power Report

Published 06 October 2014

  • 105 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Power Report

BMI View:   We have revised up our forecasts for India's power sector this quarter on the back of positive economic and political momentum. In particular, the victory of Narendra Modi in the 2014 general elections is likely to be a catalyst for more rapid growth in the sector over the coming decade.

We have revised up our 2014 forecasts for electricity generation and consumption in India this quarter on the back of positive economic and political factors. We now see electricity generation growing by 5.2% in 2014, up from 5.0% previously. We have also revised up our long-term forecasts for the Indian power sector, and are now forecasting electricity generation to grow an average of 5.7% per annum between 2014 and 2023, up from 5.5% previously. The acceleration of economic growth and the positive operating environment for solar energy are factors attributing to the revision, but the victory of Modi is by far the largest factor for our revision.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The victory of Narendra Modi in the 2014 elections is positive for the sector as he is likely to introduce reforms to the power sector that focus on reducing red tape for new projects and improving fuel supply.

  • A report by the Central Electricity Authority revealed the country faced a power deficit of over 12,000MW during peak hours in FY2012-13 (April-March).

  • Renewable energy is growing increasingly bankable and many Indian utilities and companies are investing in the sector.

  • On August 25, India's Supreme Court ruled that all 218 coal mining licences awarded by the government between 1993 and 2010 were illegal. While only 30 out of the 218 coal mining blocks have been developed, an outright cancellation of these mining operations will deal a hard blow to the power sector.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
India Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (India 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (India 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
India Power Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Asia Pacific Power Power Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
34
India Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation And Competition
37
Sustainable Energy Policies
40
Pricing
41
India Power Projects Database
43
Table: India Power Projects Database
43
Competitive Landscape
91
Power Grid
91
National Thermal Power Corporation
92
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation
93
Nuclear Power Corporation Of India
93
Company Profile
94
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC)
94
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC)
98
Regional Overview
101
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview
101
Table: Fact Box: Key Strategies Of Fourth Basic Energy Plan
103
Glossary
106
Table: Glossary Of Terms
106
Methodology
107
Methodology And Sources
107
Industry Forecast Methodology
107
Sources
110
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
110
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
111
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
113

The India Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The India Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks India's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc