Business Monitor International


India Power Report

Published 02 July 2014

  • 105 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Power Report

BMI View: We maintained our forecasts for the Indian electricity sector this quarter as our assumptions remain relevant. We highlight that certain key themes - namely continued weakness in the economy, further coal shortages, and poor regulatory frameworks - are likely to remain prevalent even in the long term. From a long-term perspective, we expect thermal energy to maintain its position as the backbone of the Indian power sector, but believe it is unlikely the Indian government will meet its electricity capacity and generation targets.

We maintained our 2014 forecasts for electricity generation and consumption in India as our short-term assumptions remain relevant. We had revised down our forecasts in our previous analysis of the sector due to challenges in the power sector that resulted in major power shortages, as well as our more cautious outlook for the Indian economy and find the situation remains largely unchanged.

We have also maintained our medium- to long-term forecasts for the Indian power sector this quarter. We expect electricity generation to grow an average of 5.5% per annum between 2014 and 2023, driven mainly by thermal and renewable energy. We highlight a number of key themes will remain prevalent in the Indian power sector over the long-term.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The victory of Narendra Modi in the 2014 elections is positive for the sector as he is likely to introduce reforms to the power sector that focus on reducing red tape for new projects and improving fuel supply.

  • A report by the Central Electricity Authority revealed the country faced a power deficit of over 12,000MW during peak hours in FY2012-13 (April-March).

  • Coal India increased the price of low-grade coal by 10% on May 27 and this grade of coal is most commonly used in electricity generation.

  • Renewable energy is growing increasingly bankable and many Indian utilities and companies are investing in the sector.

  • Despite ambitious plans by the Indian government...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
India Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (India 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (India 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
India Power Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
25
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
26
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2017)
26
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2018-2023)
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
34
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
37
India Power Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
42
Pricing
43
India Power Projects Database
45
Table: India Power Projects Database
45
Competitive Landscape
78
Power Grid
78
National Thermal Power Corporation
79
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation
80
Nuclear Power Corporation Of India
80
Company Profile
81
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC)
81
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC)
85
Regional Overview
88
Asia Regional Overview
88
Table: Regional Electricity Generation Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
96
Glossary
98
Table: Glossary Of Terms
98
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sources
102
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
102
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
103
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
105

The India Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The India Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks India's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc