Business Monitor International


India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 07 October 2014

  • 130 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   While the newly elected government is keen to improv e the population's health, BMI highlights that this may come at the pharmaceutical industry's expense , as drug price cuts are increasingly being using to limit health expenditure. We maintain that the government needs to increase spending on healthcare rather than pushing cost s   on to the pharmaceutical industry.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: INR904.0bn (USD15.4bn) in 2013 to INR1,021.8bn (USD17.6bn) in 2014; +13.0% in local currency terms and +14.2% in US dollar terms.  Forecast upgraded from previous quarter.  

Healthcare: INR4,640bn (USD79.2bn) in 2013 to INR5,179.9bn (USD89.3bn) in 2014; +11.6% in local currency terms and 12.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with previous quarter.   

Risk/Reward Rating

India's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q414 is 53.0 out of the maximum 100, in our newly improved RRR system. The country scored above average for some indicators and sub-indicators including overall market expenditure, sector value growth, population growth. Nevertheless, it scored below regional average for most indicators under industry and country risks. Consequently with the moderate score, India is ranked tenth, behind New Zealand, out of the 19 key markets in Asia Pacific.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In August 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to form an 'accessible and affordable' health system (reports PMLive), despite the country's weak infrastructure. Modi aims to revive a health market that has not had policy reform since 2002. Up to 30% of medicines sold in India are covered by price controls. According to analysts, the health ministry's first steps have been cautious rather than the revolution promised in the Modi's manifesto. Modi called for the government to pursue a 'balanced evolution' so that any new healthcare system can synchronise with the pharmaceutical industry over the provision of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
25
Patented Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
28
Generic Drug Market Forecast
29
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
30
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
31
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018)
32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018)
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2012-2018)
34
Other Healthcare Data
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Economic Analysis
36
Downgrade Due To Significant Pull-Back In Capital Spending
37
Waning Private Consumption Growth Poses Further Downside Risks
38
Not All Gloom: Data Could Boost BJP's Position
38
Table: India - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
41
India Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In India (2008)
50
Healthcare Sector
51
Healthcare Sector Developments
53
Healthcare Insurance
57
Research & Development
58
Table: R&D Expenditure* In Top 20 Indian Pharmaceutical Firms (By Market Capitalisation) (USDmn)
59
Clinical Trials
60
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
63
Biosimilars
68
Table: List Of Selected Biosimilars Developed By Indian Pharmaceutical Firms
70
Traditional Medicines
72
Regulatory Development
73
Pharmaceutical Advertising
75
Pharmacovigilance
76
Intellectual Property Regime
77
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
78
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms
79
Pricing Policy
82
Compulsory Licences
85
Competitive Landscape
86
Pharmaceutical Sector
86
Key Industry Developments
89
Domestic Industry
96
Pharmaceutical Distribution
98
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
99
Company Profile
100
Dr
100
Cipla
105
Ranbaxy Laboratories
109
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical
115
Pfizer
119
GlaxoSmithKline
123
Novartis
128
Sanofi India
132
Merck & Co
135
Demographic Forecast
139
Demographic Outlook
139
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
140
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
141
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
142
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
142
Glossary
143
Methodology
145
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
145
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
145
Notes On Methodology
146
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
147
Ratings Overview
148
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
148
Indicator Weightings
149

The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc