Business Monitor International


India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 14 March 2014

  • 130 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Pharmaceutical firms in India are reporting improved performance for the quarter ended December 2013. This is an early indication of a recovery in the Indian pharmaceutical industry, following the implementation of the Drug Price Control Order in May 2013. While we forecast strong growth for the sector in 2014, persisting issues such as the halting of clinical trials, low healthcare expenditure and company-specific manufacturing quality control problems will continue to pose downside risks to our outlook.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: INR904.0bn (US$15.4bn) in 2013 to INR995.8bn (US$17.2bn) in 2014; +10.2% in local currency terms and +11.2% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: INR4,214.5bn (US$72.0bn) in 2013 to INR4,646.2bn (US$80.1bn) in 2014; +10.2% in local currency terms and 11.3% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

India's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q214 is 51.8 out of the maximum 100, in our newly improved RRR system. The country scored above average for some indicators and sub-indicators including overall market expenditure, sector value growth, population growth. Nevertheless, it scored below regional average for most indicators under industry and country risks. Consequently with the moderate score, India is ranked tenth, behind New Zealand, out of the 19 key markets in Asia Pacific.

Key Trends And Developments

  • From March 1 2014 a total of 46 drugs will be classified in India under a new category called 'Schedule H1'. Medicines listed on Schedule H1 can only be dispensed by a pharmacist with a prescription given by registered medical practitioners. Retailers are also expected to maintain separate records of sales of these medicines for at least two years. Drugs that are listed on Schedule H1 include third and fourth generation antibiotics, anti-tuberculosis medicines and other drugs in a bid to address the issue of drug resistance in the country, resulting from the improper prescription and consumption...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
17
Table: India Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: India Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
20
Table: India Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
21
Table: India Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: India Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: India Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
27
Generic Drug Market Forecast
28
Table: India Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
29
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Table: India Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
31
Table: India Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
33
Table: India Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (INRmn)
33
Other Healthcare Data
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: India - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
41
India Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In India (2008)
50
Healthcare Sector
50
Healthcare Sector Developments
52
Healthcare Insurance
56
Research & Development
56
Table: R&D Expenditure* In Top 20 Indian Pharmaceutical Firms (By Market Capitalisation) (US$mn)
58
Clinical Trials
59
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
61
Biosimilars
67
Table: List Of Selected Biosimilars Developed By Indian Pharmaceutical Firms
69
Traditional Medicines
70
Regulatory Development
71
Regulatory Developments
71
Table: Department Of Pharmaceuticals' Responsibilities
73
Pharmaceutical Advertising
74
Pharmacovigilance
74
Intellectual Property Regime
76
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System
77
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms
78
Pricing Policy
80
Compulsory Licences
83
Competitive Landscape
85
Pharmaceutical Sector
85
Key Industry Developments
88
Domestic Industry
94
Pharmaceutical Distribution
95
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
96
Company Profile
98
Dr
98
Cipla
102
Ranbaxy
106
Aurobindo
112
Pfizer
116
GlaxoSmithKline
120
Novartis
125
Sanofi India
129
Merck & Co
132
Demographic Forecast
136
Demographic Outlook
136
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
137
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
138
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
139
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
139
Glossary
140
Methodology
142
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
142
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
142
Notes On Methodology
143
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
144
Ratings Overview
145
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
145
Indicator Weightings
146

The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc