BMI View: Due to its large population and substantial unmet medical needs, India represents a market with strong commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical firms. However, we highlight that the government is impeding the development of its pharmaceutical sector , mainly due to extensive bureaucracy and poor policy planning. Some of the issues affecting various subsector s in the industry include the regulation of clinical trials, pricing of patented and essential drugs, general ly low government involvement in healthcare and foreign direct investments.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: INR840.0bn (US$15.7bn) in 2012 to INR904.0bn (US$16.1bn) in 2013; +7.7% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast was slightly downgraded from Q413 due to a slowdown in the pharmaceutical industry.
Healthcare: INR3,814.7bn (US$71.4bn) in 2012 to INR4,214.5bn (US$75.3bn) in 2013; +10.5% in local currency terms and 5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q413, although growth in US dollar terms was impacted by the depreciation of the rupee.
Risk/Reward Rating : India's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q114 is 51.8 out of the maximum 100, in our newly improved RRR system. The country scored above average for some indicators and sub-indicators including overall market expenditure, sector value growth, population growth. Nevertheless, it scored below regional average for most indicators under industry and country risks. Consequently with the moderate score, India is ranked tenth, behind New Zealand, out of the 19 key markets in Asia Pacific.
Key Trends And Developments
In December 2013, the Indian government decided to dissolve an inter-ministerial panel that was created to reduce patented drug prices. The panel was formed in 2007 and involved seven members from the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP), the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), the National Institute of Pharmaceutical...
The India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's India Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)
Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)
Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)
Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)
OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)
Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)
Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.