Business Monitor International


India Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 181 pages
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India Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Q2 2014 should see some significant changes in the Indian oil and gas sector. Firstly, the government set gas price will double to US$8.4/mnBTU on April 1 creating greater incentive to invest in more costly and technically challenging gas resources. This will be supported by the opening of the NELP X licensing round, where India is due to offer 46 new blocks allowing companies to prospect for all types of hydrocarbon resources , including shale . However, also introduced for NELP X will be a change from profit sharing contracts to revenue sharing contracts. We believe this could dissuade interest from a number of major international oil companies, particularly at more technically challenging developments.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Indian oil and gas sector are:

  • India has launched its NELP X licensing round and is expected to receive regulatory approval from Cabinet Committee for 46 blocks by February 15 2014. All blocks to be offered in the licensing round will allow contractors to prospect for all types of hydrocarbons, whether it be conventional oil and gas, shale or coal-bed methane.

  • However, the terms of licensing for NELP X have been changed and could dissuade some international oil companies (IOCs) from investing. The new model changes contracts to revenue sharing agreements, rather than profit sharing agreements, meaning companies will not be allowed to recoup costs before sharing revenues with the government.

  • The Rangajaran Committee's recommendation to raise gas prices from US$4.2 to US$8.4 per million British thermal unit (mnBTU) was approved by India's Prime Minister late June 2013. This will apply retroactively to production sharing contracts (PSCs) that are already signed from April 1 2014, incentivising companies to increase gas production. As a result we anticipate strong gas production growth to begin from 2016.

  • We are now expecting gas production to return to growth in 2014 following a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: India Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: India Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2018-2023
13
Oil Supply And Demand
17
Table: India Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: India Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: India Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: India Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
24
Table: India's Shale Rich Basins
28
Table: LNG Supply Deals
33
Refining And Oil Products Trade
34
Table: India Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
34
Table: India Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
38
The Upstream Leaders
38
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
40
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Downstream Support
42
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
46
India - Risk/Reward Ratings
47
India Upstream Rating - Overview
47
India Upstream Rating - Rewards
47
India Upstream Rating - Risks
47
India Downstream Rating - Overview
48
Market Overview
49
India Energy Market Overview
49
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing, Regulation And Taxes
50
Licensing Rounds
51
Table: Shale Gas Resource Potential
52
Government Policy
55
International Energy Relations
57
Table: Major Upstream Gas Projects
58
India Oil & Gas Infrastructure
59
Oil Refineries
59
Table: Operational Indian Refineries
60
Table: Other Outlined Refinery Expansion And Modernisation Projects
62
Oil Storage Facilities
62
Service Stations
63
Oil Pipelines
63
LNG Terminals
63
Table: LNG Terminals In India
64
Gas Storage Facilities
65
Gas Pipelines
65
Table: Pipelines Outlined Under The 12th Five-Year Plan
66
Competitive Landscape
69
Competitive Landscape Summary
69
Table: Key Players - India Oil And Gas Sector
70
Table: Key Upstream Players
71
Table: Key Downstream Players
71
Company Profile
72
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
72
Oil India Ltd (OIL)
79
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
84
Reliance Industries
88
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL)
95
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
100
Gas Authority of India (GAIL)
105
Cairn India
111
Essar Oil
116
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation
121
Petronet LNG
125
Other Summaries
128
Regional Overview
134
Asia Overview
134
Gas Is Hot
134
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
137
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
138
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
140
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
143
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
146
Refining Woes
146
Global Industry Overview
150
Appendix
157
Asia - Regional Appendix
157
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
157
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
158
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
158
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
159
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
160
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
161
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
162
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
163
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
163
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
164
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
165
India - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
166
Table: India Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
166
Table: India Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
167
Table: India Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
168
Table: India Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
169
Table: India Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
170
Table: India Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
171
Glossary
173
Table: Glossary Of Terms
173
Methodology
175
Industry Forecast Methodology
175
Source
177
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
177
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
179
Table: Weighting
181

The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for India including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc