Business Monitor International


India Mining Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 98 pages
 
$1,295.00
India Mining Report

BMI View: A greater number of state-owned miners will be keen to expand production along with India's growing economy. However , the country's poor operating environment will continue to impede growth in the mining sector. A domestic shortfall in coal production is unlikely to fade a way anytime soon, while growth in iron ore production will be restricted by the government's clampdown on illegal mining.

While growing domestic demand for commodities will encourage state-owned miners to expand production, we believe India's poor operating environment will continue to restrict growth in the mining sector. A spate of bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles will remain major challenges for miners to grapple with over the coming quarters. For instance, the difficulties in securing environmental clearances and land acquisition have led to a series of mining projects being delayed over the past year. Vedanta Resources' bauxite mining project in Odisha was forced to put on hold due to fierce protests by the local community.

A bright spot, however, is that the new Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government will implement positive reforms to revive economic growth. The party's track record of pro-business dealings could bring about an improving operating climate in the mining sector.

In our view, India is set to face a growing shortfall in coal production over our forecast period to 2018. Although the government will be keen to expand coal output to tackle chronic power shortages, this will be a challenging process. India's coal sector is rife with theft and corruption and hampered by primitive mining techniques. Additionally, significant amounts of coal deposits are located in protected forests or conflict-laden tribal lands, making it extremely difficult to increase production. In terms of iron ore, the government's crackdown on illegal mining activities will prevent a significant recovery in output over the coming quarters. We expect more domestic firms to venture...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Bauxite: Dragged By Environmental Woes
11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
14
Coal: Imports To Rise With Production Struggles
14
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2009-2018)
20
Iron Ore: Mining Challenges To Continue
20
Table: India - Select Iron Ore Projects
23
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
23
Zinc: HZL In Driving Seat
23
Table: India - Largest Zinc Mining Projects
25
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
30
Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Rewards
31
Industry Rewards
31
Country Rewards
31
Risks
32
Industry Risks
32
Country Risks
32
Table: India - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
33
Regulatory Development
34
Table: Key Changes In Licence/Lease Granting In 2011 MMDR Bill
36
Table: Royalty Rates Under Proposed Mining Bill
36
Table: Asia - Mining Regulatory Scorecard
39
Table: Political Overview
39
Commodities Forecast
42
Monthly Metals Update
42
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
42
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
44
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
45
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
46
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
47
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
48
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies
55
Company Profile
56
Coal India Ltd (CIL)
56
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data
59
Hindustan Copper
60
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data
62
NMDC
63
Vedanta Resources
66
Latest Financial Results
68
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
70
Regional Overview
71
Asia - Q3 2014
71
Challenges
71
Opportunities
74
Global Industry Overview
79
Challenges
79
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
83
Cause For Optimism
86
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sources
94
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
97

The India Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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