Business Monitor International


India Mining Report

Published 23 September 2014

  • 98 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Mining Report

BMI View:   India's poor operating environment will continue to impede growth in the mining sector. A domestic shortfall in coal production is unlikely to fade a way anytime soon, while growth in iron ore output will be restricted by the government's clampdown on illegal mining.

While growing domestic demand for commodities will encourage state-owned miners to expand production, we believe India's poor operating environment will continue to restrict growth in the mining sector. A spate of bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles will remain major challenges for miners to grapple with over the coming quarters. For instance, the difficulties in securing environmental clearances and land acquisition have led to a series of mining projects being delayed over the past year. Vedanta Resources' bauxite mining project in Odisha was forced to put on hold due to fierce protests by the local community. A bright spot, however, is that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will implement positive reforms to revive economic growth over the medium term. The party's track record of pro-business dealings could bring about an improving operating climate in the mining sector. 

We expect India to face a growing shortfall in coal production over our forecast period to 2018. Although the government will be keen to expand coal output to tackle chronic power shortages, this will be a challenging process. India's coal sector is rife with theft and corruption and hampered by primitive mining techniques. Additionally, significant amounts of coal deposits are located in protected forests or conflict-laden tribal lands, making it extremely difficult to increase production.

Mixed Outlook
India - Select Minerals Production (% chg y-o-y)

In terms of iron ore, the government's crackdown on illegal mining activities will prevent a significant recovery in output over the coming quarters. We expect more domestic firms to venture abroad for mining investment over the coming tears. The huge reserves...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Bauxite: Environmental Opposition A Key Threat
11
NALCO To Drive Growth
12
Risks To Production Outlook
13
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
13
Coal: Domestic Struggles To Lift Imports
13
Many Roadblocks To Production
14
Coal To Stay King
15
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
17
Iron Ore: Mining Challenges To Continue
18
Table: India - Select Iron Ore Projects
20
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
20
Zinc: HZL To Drive Growth
20
Table: India - Largest Zinc Mining Projects
22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2010-2018)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Australia Leads, Frontier Markets To Remain Laggards
23
An Improving Regulatory Landscape
24
Largest Quarterly Change In Laos
25
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
26
Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Rewards
26
Industry Rewards
26
Country Rewards
27
Risks
27
Industry Risks
27
Country Risks
28
Table: India - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
28
Regulatory Development
29
Table: Key Changes In Licence/Lease Granting In 2011 MMDR Bill
30
Table: Royalty Rates Under Proposed Mining Bill
31
Table: Political Overview
33
Competitive Landscape
35
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies
37
Company Profile
38
Coal India Ltd (CIL)
38
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data
41
Hindustan Copper
42
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data
44
NMDC
45
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data
48
Vedanta Resources
48
Latest Financial Results
51
Company Strategy
51
Company Details
53
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
54
Regional Overview
55
Asia Overview
55
Global Industry Overview
61
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards
61
M&A Activity To Pick Up
62
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore
63
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum
64
Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace
65
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry
66
Commodities Forecast
68
Commodity Strategy
68
Ferrous Metals:
69
Iron Ore: Bounce Won't Last, Weakness In 2015
69
Steel: Long Road To Price Recovery
70
Non-Ferrous Metals:
71
Aluminium: Elevated Prices In Coming Weeks
71
Copper: Strength To Turn To Weakness By Q414
72
Lead: Price Bounce Underway
73
Nickel: Prices To Cool In Coming Months
74
Tin: Market Tightness To Drive Prices Higher
75
Zinc: Prices To Moderate By Q414
76
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
77
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Sources
80
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
82

The India Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc