BMI View: India is set to become a major consumer of metals over the coming years as the government makes pertinent efforts to improve the level of infrastructure in the country . That said, major roadblocks concerning the availability of raw materials and institutional weaknesses will continue to hinder growth in the metals industry.
In contrast to the dimming outlook in major steel-producing countries, we believe India's steel sector is on track to become a steel powerhouse over the long term. While steelmakers in countries such as China, US and Germany are struggling to cope with persistent overcapacity and sluggish steel demand, the fortunes for Indian steelmakers are vastly different.
We expect India to become a major consumer of metals over the medium term as the growing affluence of the local population spurs spending on housing and white goods, while the government undertakes pertinent efforts to improve the level of infrastructure in the country. Encouragingly, the ruling United Progressive Alliance government has made public infrastructure investment a key priority. In his FY2013/14 budget speech, Minister of Finance Palaniappan Chidambaram articulated that while every sector can absorb new investment, it is the infrastructure sector that needs large volumes of investment. The government's 12 th five-year plan (2012-2017) sees investments worth up to a trillion dollars in infrastructure, with the plan envisaging that the private sector will share 47% of this investment.
| Steel Rising, With Risks To Downside |
|India - Crude Steel Production|
Over the past decade, a growing number of Indian steelmakers have embarked on upstream investment. Some of the largest players in the steel industry such as the Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) are endowed with their own iron ore mines, while others are seeking to enhance raw material security by investing into coal and iron ore assets abroad. We expect this trend to gain precedence over the coming quarters as...
The India Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in India.
BMI's India Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in India.
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Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).