Business Monitor International


India Metals Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 71 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Metals Report

BMI View: India is set to become a major consumer of metals over the coming years as the government makes pertinent efforts to improve the level of infrastructure in the country . That said, major roadblocks concerning the availability of raw materials and institutional weaknesses will continue to hinder growth in the metals industry.

In contrast to the dimming outlook in major steel-producing countries, we believe India's steel sector is on track to become a steel powerhouse over the long term. While steelmakers in countries such as China, US and Germany are struggling to cope with persistent overcapacity and sluggish steel demand, the fortunes for Indian steelmakers are vastly different.

We expect India to become a major consumer of metals over the medium term as the growing affluence of the local population spurs spending on housing and white goods, while the government undertakes pertinent efforts to improve the level of infrastructure in the country. Encouragingly, the ruling United Progressive Alliance government has made public infrastructure investment a key priority. In his FY2013/14 budget speech, Minister of Finance Palaniappan Chidambaram articulated that while every sector can absorb new investment, it is the infrastructure sector that needs large volumes of investment. The government's 12 th five-year plan (2012-2017) sees investments worth up to a trillion dollars in infrastructure, with the plan envisaging that the private sector will share 47% of this investment.

Steel Rising, With Risks To Downside
India - Select Metals Production (% chg y-o-y)

Over the past decade, a growing number of Indian steelmakers have embarked on upstream investment. Some of the largest players in the steel industry such as the Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) are endowed with their own iron ore mines, while others are seeking to enhance raw material security by investing into coal and iron ore assets abroad. We expect this trend to gain precedence over the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Metals SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: On Track To Become Powerhouse
11
Major Stumbling Blocks In Place
12
Yet Another Blow From Rupee Woes
14
Table: India - Steel Production & Consumption Forecasts (kt)
16
Table: India - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003-2012 (kt)
16
Aluminium: Struggling To Meet Demand
17
Consumption Growth Edging Higher
18
Environmental Concerns A Key Threat
19
Table: India - Refined Aluminium Production & Consumption Forecast (kt)
19
Copper: Output To Slowly Recover
19
Table: India - Refined Copper Production Forecast (kt)
22
Zinc: Structural Surplus To Gradually Decline
23
Table: India - Refined Zinc Production Forecast
25
Regulatory Development
26
Table: Political Overview
29
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodity Strategy
31
Steel: Subdued Medium Term Outlook
33
Aluminium: Despite Recent Upswing, Underperformance To Persist
34
Copper: No Time To Celebrate Yet
35
Lead: Outperformance On The Cards
36
Nickel: Sideways Movement In Weeks Ahead
37
Zinc: Positive Momentum To Continue
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
40
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
41
Steel Price Forecast
41
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
41
Short-Term Outlook
42
Core View
42
Global Steel Glut To Persist
43
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
43
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
45
Excessive Chinese Exports
46
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
47
Risks To Price Outlook
47
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
48
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Table: Financial Data Of Key Metal Firms Listed In India
50
Company Profile
52
National Aluminium Company (NALCO)
52
Table: NALCO - Key Financial Data
54
Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)
55
Table: SAIL - Key Financial Data
57
Tata Steel Limited - Q2 2014
59
Recent Financial Results
61
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
62
Vedanta Resources
63
Latest Financial Results
65
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
67
Methodology
68
Cross Checks
68

The India Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in India.

BMI's India Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the India metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc