Business Monitor International


India Metals Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 71 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Metals Report

BMI View:   India is set to become a major consumer of metals over the coming years as the government makes pertinent efforts to improve the level of infrastructure in the country . That said, major roadblocks concerning the availability of raw materials and institutional weaknesses will continue to hinder growth in the metals industry.

In contrast to the dimming outlook in major steel-producing countries, we believe India's steel sector is on track to experience healthy growth over our forecast period to 2018. While steelmakers in countries such as China, Japan and South Korea are struggling with overcapacity and sluggish steel demand, the fortunes for Indian steelmakers are much more positive.

We expect India to become a major consumer of metals over the medium term. The growing affluence of the local population will spur spending on housing and white goods in the coming years. Crucially, the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pledged to push ahead with a mandate of sweeping economic reforms that will revive investor confidence in the country. We believe efforts to slim down bureaucracy and merge departments will improve the coordination between ministries and provide a springboard for pending infrastructure projects. Subsequently, this will trickle down to the metals industry as demand for construction-related materials including steel, aluminium and nickel increases.

Steeled For Growth
India - Select Metals Production (% chg y-o-y)

That said, we are aware that several roadblocks will continue to hinder growth in India's steel sector. The ongoing clampdown on illegal iron ore mining will force a handful of steelmakers to shift their sights onto the seaborne market for supply. Additionally, the pervasiveness of graft, excessive red tape and the glacial pace of project execution will remain obstacles to infrastructure build-out and foreign direct investment in the coming quarters.

Over the past decade, a growing number of Indian steelmakers...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Aluminium: Struggling To Meet Demand
10
Consumption Growth Edging Higher
11
Environmental Concerns A Key Threat
12
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (India 2010-2018)
12
Copper: Output To Slowly Recover
12
Table: India - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (2010-2018)
14
Steel: Modi's Win Not A Game Changer
15
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (India 2010-2018)
19
Table: India - Steel Prices Historical Data
19
Table: India - Steel Industry Historical Data (kt)
19
Zinc: Structural Surplus To Gradually Decline
20
Table: India - Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance
22
Regulatory Development
23
Table: Political Overview
26
Commodities Forecast
28
Commodity Strategy
28
Iron Ore: Not Much Respite In Sight
28
Steel: Production Rationalisation Too Slow To Provide Price Upside
30
Aluminium: Further Price Rally Unlikely
31
Lead: Ripe For A H214 Boost
32
Copper: Consensus Moving Our Way
33
Nickel: Price Surge To Abate Further
34
Tin: In A Sweet Spot
35
Zinc: Bullish Short-Term Picture
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
37
Steel Price Forecast
38
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
38
Short-Term Outlook
39
Core View
39
Global Steel Glut To Persist
39
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
40
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
42
Excessive Chinese Exports
43
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
44
Risks To Price Outlook
44
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
45
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
45
Competitive Landscape
47
Table: Financial Data Of Key Metal Firms Listed In India
47
Company Profile
49
National Aluminium Company (NALCO)
49
Table: NALCO - Key Financial Data
51
Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)
52
Table: SAIL - Key Financial Data
54
Tata Steel Limited
56
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
59
Vedanta Resources
60
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
64
Methodology
65
Cross Checks
65

The India Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in India.

BMI's India Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the India metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc