Business Monitor International


India Metals Report

Published 16 December 2014

  • 71 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Metals Report

BMI View: India is set to become a major consumer of metals over the coming years as the government makes substantial efforts to improve infrastructure in the country . That said, major roadblocks concerning the availability of raw materials and institutional weaknesses will continue to hinder growth in the metals industry.

In contrast to the dimming outlook in major steel-producing countries, we believe India's steel sector is on track to experience healthy growth over our forecast period to 2018. While steelmakers in countries including China, Japan and South Korea are struggling with overcapacity and sluggish steel demand, the fortunes for Indian steelmakers are much more positive.

We expect India to become a major consumer of metals over the medium term. The growing affluence of the population will spur spending on housing and white goods in the coming years. Crucially, the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pledged to push ahead with a mandate of sweeping economic reforms that will revive investor confidence in the country. We believe efforts to slim down bureaucracy and merge departments will improve the coordination between ministries and provide a springboard for pending infrastructure projects. Subsequently, this will trickle down to the metals industry as demand for construction-related materials including steel, aluminium and nickel increases.

Steeled For Growth
India - Select Metals Production (% chg y-o-y)

That said, we are aware that several roadblocks will continue to hinder growth in India's steel sector. The ongoing clampdown on illegal iron ore mining will force a handful of steelmakers to shift their sights onto the seaborne market for supply. Additionally, the pervasiveness of graft, excessive red tape and the glacial pace of project execution will remain obstacles to infrastructure build-out and foreign direct investment in the coming quarters.

Over the past decade, a growing number of Indian steelmakers have embarked on...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Aluminium: Deficit In Sight
10
Consumption Growth Edging Higher
11
Environmental Concerns A Key Threat
12
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (India 2012-2018)
12
Copper: Production To Recover
12
Table: India - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (2012-2018)
15
Steel: Geared For Growth, But Risks Remain
15
Table: India - Steel Production, Consumption & Balance (2012-2018)
22
Table: India - Steel Prices Historical Data
22
Table: India - Steel Industry Historical Data (kt)
22
Zinc: HZL To Drive Growth
23
Table: India - Refined Zinc Production, Consumption & Balance (2012-2018)
28
Regulatory Development
29
Table: Political Overview
32
Commodities Forecast
34
Commodity Strategy
34
Ferrous Metals:
34
Steel: Prices To Remain Subdued
36
Non-Ferrous Metals:
37
Aluminium: Price Strength To Continue In Q314
37
Copper: Further Decline By Year's End
38
Lead: Constructive Price Outlook
39
Nickel: Moderation To Continue
40
Tin: Upside Ahead
41
Zinc: Consolidation Before Multi-Year Gains
43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
45
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
45
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
45
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
45
Long-Term Outlook
46
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
47
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
48
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
49
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
50
Risks To Price Forecast
50
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Table: Financial Data Of Key Metal Firms Listed In India
53
Company Profile
54
National Aluminium Company (NALCO)
54
Table: Nalco - Suppliers
56
Table: NALCO - Key Financial Data
57
Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)
58
Table: SAIL - Supply Chain Analysis
60
Table: SAIL - Key Financial Data
61
Tata Steel Limited
62
Company Overview
63
Company Strategy
63
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
65
Vedanta Resources
66
Latest Financial Results
68
Company Strategy
68
Company Details
70
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
71
Methodology
72
Cross Checks
72

The India Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in India.

BMI's India Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the India metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in India through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc