Business Monitor International


India Defence & Security Report

Published 06 February 2014

  • 107 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Defence & Security Report

BMI View: Given the current regional security context, it is perhaps unsurprising that Q114 saw India engage in high level defence and security dialogues with both Japan and South Korea. Increased defence cooperation between India and the two East Asian powers is set to rattle China, with Beijing already expressing concern over New Delhi being 'courted' by Tokyo and Seoul. Like Japan and South Korea, India too is wary of an emerging China and the threat this poses to its own security. As well as being involved in several long-running territorial disputes with China, India is also sceptical of Beijing's strong strategic relations with Islamabad. The so-called 'stapled visas policy', which sees China issuing stapled visas for Indians domiciled in the Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir is seen as an implicit endorsement of Pakistan in its much publicized disputes with India. India has also taken a firm stand with Japan and South Korea regarding China's unilateral declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in Q413, branding it a violation of international aviation law.

Enhanced defence and security ties with Japan and South Korea will be manifested by increased defence sales, joint ventures, joint military exercises and security partnerships that look to address global and regional tensions. Following Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to India in January 2014, it was announced that the pending sale of 15 ShinaMaywa US-2 amphibious patrol aircraft- a topic of interest for India since 2011- is moving forward, with a deal expected to be finalized sometime in 2014. This deal is expected to be worth US$1.65bn. During the bilateral talks, India invited Japan to participate in the annual 'Malabar' Naval exercises which India conducts with the United States.

In similar bilateral talks in January 2014 with South Korea, New Delhi agreed to enhance cooperation in cyber security, space and defence with Seoul. As part of what is the 'first-ever major...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
India Security SWOT
9
India Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
15
Economic
17
Business Environment
19
Industry Forecast
21
Defence Budget
21
Table: India's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
21
Table: India's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
22
Armed Forces
23
Table: India's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2017
24
Table: India's Armed Forces, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
24
Defence Sector Production
24
Table: India's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
28
Imports
29
Table: India's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
29
Exports
30
Table: India's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
31
Key Risks To Our Forecast
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Table: India - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Asia Security Risk Ratings
37
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
37
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
38
India Security Risk Ratings
38
Market Overview
41
India Defence Market Overview
41
India Security Overview
52
Domestic Threats
53
Regional Threats
58
International Threats
61
Long-Term Political Outlook
68
Company Profile
73
BAE-HAL Software Ltd
73
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL)
75
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
76
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
78
Honeywell International India
80
Ordnance Factories (OF)
81
Rolls-Royce International
82
Regional Overview
84
South Asia Security Overview
84
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Political Outlook
98
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104
Sources
105
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
105
Sector-Specific Methodology
105
Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
106
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
107

The India Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Indian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Indian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc