Business Monitor International


India Defence & Security Report

Published 09 July 2014

  • 107 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Defence & Security Report

BMI View: BMI believes that India's defence ambitions will continue to face challenges for the fiscal year 2014-15. That said, the increase of the foreign investment cap to 49% should boost the defence industrial base. Using BMI ' s Risk Reward Rating BMI calculates that India's security risk is medium given the growing prevalence of international terrorist groups and the ongoing territorial disputes in India's northern regions. In our view, the corruption probe into VVIP helicopter deal has the potential to complicate further other procurement deals in India.

India is concerned about the gaping gap in its military budget compared to that of China's. That said, huge increases in the budget remain constrained by national economic conditions. The 12% y-o-y increase announced in July will mostly be dedicated to paying off past contracts leaving little for the purchase of new equipment. While, India remains the world's largest importer of military equipment, BMI expects the rate of growth in imports to slow over the coming years.

India appears to be adopting a strategy similar to that of other emerging economies, which is to enter into joint ventures in the hope of acquiring technology and strengthening the industrial base. BMI thinks India's defence sector now has increased potential to attract more foreign investment as a result of the increase of the foreign investment cap. Furthermore, India appears to be diversifying its defence partnerships away from its traditionally Russian ally.

India's continues to face numerous forms of security threats. While there is little chance of India's conflict with Pakistan over the territory of Kashmir to become a major interstate war, the ongoing dispute has a tendency to fuel trans-border terrorism into India and domestic terrorism from radical Hindu groups. As international terrorism proliferates and when US-NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2015, India is set to face increased regional security...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
India Security SWOT
9
India Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
15
Economic
17
Business Environment
19
Industry Forecast
21
Defence Budget
21
Table: Defence Expenditure (India 2011-2018)
21
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (India 2011-2018)
23
Armed Forces
23
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (India 2011-2018)
24
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (India 2001-2010)
25
Defence Sector Production
25
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (India 2011-2018)
29
Imports
30
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (India 2011-2018)
30
Exports
31
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (India 2011-2018)
32
Key Risks To Our Forecast
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Downgrade Due To Significant Pull-Back In Capital Spending
34
Waning Private Consumption Growth Poses Further Downside Risks
35
Not All Gloom: Data Could Boost BJP's Position
35
Table: India - Economic Activity
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Asia Security Risk Ratings
38
Table: Asia Pacific Security Risk Ratings
38
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
39
India Security Risk Ratings
39
Market Overview
42
India Defence Market Overview
42
India Security Overview
53
Domestic Threats
54
Regional Threats
59
International Threats
62
Long-Term Political Outlook
69
Company Profile
74
BAE-HAL Software Ltd
74
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL)
76
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
77
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
79
Honeywell International India
81
Ordnance Factories (OF)
82
Rolls-Royce International
83
Regional Overview
85
South Asia Security Overview
85
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Political Outlook
98
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Sector-Specific Methodology
105
Sources
106
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
106
Table: Indicators And Weighting
107

The India Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Indian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Indian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc