Business Monitor International


India Autos Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 84 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Autos Report

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Indian auto sales for December 2013 came in at 232,918 units, a decline of 12.9% y-o-y. Looking at recent trends, our full FY2013/14 (April-March) sales growth forecasts may be a tad optimistic and we are therefore downgrading them slightly. We now forecast auto sales for the full fiscal year to contract 6.7%, to 3.2mn units, from a 4.6% contraction previously.

There is a high degree of uncertainty over the outcome of the Indian general elections, with no party currently standing out as being able to form a majority. While this has already been one of the reasons businesses are adopting a wait and see approach in the past few quarters (which has slowed investment activity), consumer sentiment will also remain downbeat in the run-up to the elections as buyers decide to defer their purchases, further clouding an already depressed market.

A dominant theme for 2014 could be the comeback of petrol car models. Diesel vehicles, which have been popular in the past few years, have seen their share of new sales decline from 58% in the first eight months of FY2012/13 to 54% in the first eight months of FY2013/14. As diesel become more expensive (with pump prices rising every month as the government seeks to reduce subsidies), its cost advantage over petrol is eroded resulting in petrol models becoming more attractive (due to their cheaper sticker price).

CV Sales Remain The Weakest Link

The commercial vehicle (CV) segment, with its rapidly deteriorating fundamentals, remains the weakest link in the Indian auto sector. The high debt levels of infrastructure firms have pushed corporates in that sector into deleveraging mode. As infrastructure companies sell assets to pare down debt, it is only logical that their defensive stance will translate into a significant decline in demand for CVs. Therefore, headwinds in the CV segment are unlikely to abate anytime soon.

We have downgraded our FY2014/15 CV sales growth...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
17
Production And Sales
17
Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2012-2019
17
Trade
19
Table: India Autos - Trade, 2011-2018
19
Passenger Vehicles
23
Forecast
23
Table: India - December Sales Of Select Carmakers (Units)
25
Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Vehicles, 2012-2019
26
Company Developments
26
Commercial Vehicles
32
Industry Forecast
32
Table: India Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles, 2012-2019
32
Company Developments
33
Motorcycles
35
Sales
35
Table: Motorbike And Scooter Sector, 2012-2019
36
Suppliers
37
Industry Developments
37
Macroeconomic Forecast
46
Economic Analysis
46
Table: INDIA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
51
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
52
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
52
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Company Profile
56
Company Monitor
56
Hyundai Motor India
59
Maruti Suzuki
60
Tata Motors
61
Mahindra & Mahindra
62
Bajaj Auto
63
Regional Overview
65
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
65
Global Industry Overview
70
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
70
Europe On Road To Recovery
70
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
72
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
74
Demographic Forecast
77
Demographic Outlook
77
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
78
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
79
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
80
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
80
Methodology
81
Industry Forecasts
81
Sector-Specific Methodology
82
Sources
82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
83
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
84

The India Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s India Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc