Business Monitor International


India Autos Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 84 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Autos Report

Over H114, passenger car sales fell by 0.5%, to 1,280,699 units, according to information on the Focus2Move website. This marks something of a recovery for a new vehicle market which declined by 9.8% across FY13/14 (April-March), to 3,134,204 units, according to figures from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

Breaking down the sales figures for the April-June period (the first quarter of FY14/15), passenger car sales were up by 1.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), whereas commercial vehicle sales were down by 16.1% y-o-y. Three-wheeler sales were up by 11.64% y-o-y and two-wheeler sales were up by 13.7%, boding well for a strong performance from this sector over the full year.

Looking forward, BMI believes the stage is set for a continued recovery in new vehicle sales over the remainder of FY14/15, targeting 3.3% growth, to reach 3.24mn sales. First, our Country Risk team believes that GDP growth will reaccelerate to 5.6% in FY14/15, up from 4.7% in FY13/14. Thus far, business sentiment appears to be on the mend since the election and inauguration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government, which leads us to expect activity in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and construction to pick up. 

However, tempering this optimism is the fact that the government may need to start reducing the high level of subsidies on many goods, which will weigh on disposable income levels. One opposite risk is that continued high levels of subsidies could place upside pressures on price inflation in the near term, and could lead the Reserve Bank of India to tighten interest rates in order to dampen prices and would result in slower growth. Moreover, the lack of a cutback in subsidies could impair the country's longer term growth trajectory, as these subsidies would hamper resource allocation, with growth in subsidised industries coming at the expense of other more productive sectors. Against this mixed backdrop, we are targeting growth in private consumption - a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Industry Forecast: India
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018)
16
Production And Sales
16
Trade
18
Passenger Vehicles
22
Forecast
22
Table: India - April 2014 Sales Of Select Carmakers (Units)
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018)
24
Company Developments
24
Commercial Vehicles
28
Industry Forecast
28
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018)
28
Company Developments
28
Motorcycles
31
Sales
31
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018)
31
Suppliers
33
Industry Developments
33
Macroeconomic Forecast
39
Economic Analysis
39
Downgrade Due To Significant Pull-Back In Capital Spending
40
Waning Private Consumption Growth Poses Further Downside Risks
41
Not All Gloom: Data Could Boost BJP's Position
41
Table: India - Economic Activity
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
44
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
47
Company Profile
48
Company News Alert
48
Hyundai Motor India
52
Maruti Suzuki
53
Tata Motors
54
Mahindra & Mahindra
55
Bajaj Auto
56
Regional Overview
58
Asia Regional Overview
58
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
58
Global Industry Overview
63
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
63
European Growth Gathers Momentum
63
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
65
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
66
Demographic Forecast
69
Demographic Outlook
69
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
70
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
71
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
72
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
72
Methodology
73
Industry Forecasts
73
Sector-Specific Methodology
74
Sources
74
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
75
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
76

The India Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s India Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in India.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on India to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Indian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc