Business Monitor International


India Agribusiness Report

Published 29 January 2014

  • 145 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
India Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We hold a positive view on India 's agribusiness sector , as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and is likely to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand for manufactured foodstuff s . We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomen a owing to climate change effects and serious water shortages . Moreover , the country will remain prone to erratic government intervention, which seriously hampers its reputation as an international provider. As such, we see the partial liberalisation of the sugar industry as a first positive step that will incentivise production growth and investment in the sector.

Milk Picking Up In The Future
India - BMI Agribusiness Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 6.4% to 5.6mn 60 kg bags. Strong growth will be driven by major export potential, government support, the expansion of cultivated area and India's robust coffee consumption growth.

  • Palm oil consumption growth to 2018: 22.4% to 10.3mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for the oil for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.

  • Milk production to 2017/18: 18.0% to 156.9mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by improvements in breeding techniques, robust expansion of domestic consumption and increasing dairy prices, which will renew interest in dairy production as a commercial activity.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$237.0bn in 2014 (down from US$238.5bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 3.1% on average from 2013 to 2017).

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 5.6% (up from 5.0% in 2012 and 2013; predicted to average 6.3% from 2014 to 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price inflation:...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Grains Outlook
14
Table: India Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
15
Table: India Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
15
Table: Government Of India Minimum Support Price (MSP), INR/TONNE
16
Table: India - Current & Proposed Food Welfare Programmes
19
Table: India Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: India Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Dairy Outlook
25
Table: India Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: India Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Sugar Outlook
31
Table: India Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
32
Table: Foreign Investment In The Indian Sugar Milling Industry
36
Table: India Ethanol Demand Estimates (bn litres)
40
Table: India Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
41
Livestock Outlook
42
Table: India Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
43
Table: India Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
43
Table: India Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
48
Table: India Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
48
Rice Outlook
49
Table: India Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
50
Table: India Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
54
Coffee Outlook
56
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
58
Table: India - Major Coffee Players, Shops & Expansion Plans
61
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
65
Palm Oil Outlook
66
Table: India - Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
67
Table: India - Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
72
Featured Analysis
73
Rebound Expected In Cotton And Textile Production
73
Table: India Cotton Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
77
Commodity Price Analysis
78
Monthly Grains Update
78
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
86
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
87
Monthly Softs Update
88
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
96
Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
97
Upstream Analysis
98
Asia Machinery Outlook
98
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
99
Asia GM Outlook
105
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates
109
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
110
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
111
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/tonne FOB, reported prices at the end of quarter)
113
Downstream Analysis
118
Food
118
Food Consumption
118
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
119
Confectionery
119
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
120
Dairy
121
Table: Dairy Volume Sales & Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
122
Snack Foods
122
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
123
Drink
123
Hot Drinks
123
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical & Forecasts, 2010-2017
124
Alcoholic Drinks
124
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
126
Soft Drinks
127
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
129
Mass Grocery Retail
130
Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
131
Regional Overview
132
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
134
Competitive Landscape
138
Table: India - Major Agribusiness Companies
138
Demographic Forecast
139
Demographic Outlook
139
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
140
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
141
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
142
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
142
Methodology
143
Industry Forecast Methodology
143
Sector-Specific Methodology
144

The India Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's India Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in India.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The India Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc